Final Abacus Data Poll: Ontario PCs lead by 13 as they head towards another majority government

Earlier today, we completed our final survey of the 2022 Ontario provincial election. Throughout this campaign, we have been tracking public attitudes and intentions and our latest survey indicates that Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives are headed towards an easy victory tomorrow and very likely another majority government.

Here’s a quick summary of the results:

    1. Among those who have voted already or are likely to vote tomorrow, the PCs lead by 13 over the Ontario Liberals (PC 40, OLP 27, NDP 22).
    2. Doug Ford is the most popular leader in the province and a majority believe he has been a good or ok premier over the past 4 years.
    3. Almost half of Ontarians believe the PCs will win the election
    4. The NDP and OLP continue to almost evenly split support among “change voters”

DETAILED RESULTS

PCs WELL AHEAD: PCs AHEAD BY 13 

If the election was held today, the PCs would win the popular vote easily over the Ontario Liberals. Overall, among those who have already voted and those likely to vote tomorrow,  the PCs have 40% of the vote, followed by the Ontario Liberals at 27%, the Ontario NDP at 22%, the Greens at 4%, and the New Blue Party at 4%.

Regionally, the PCs are ahead in Metro Toronto, the rest of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region, eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. The NDP and PCs are statistically tied in Northern Ontario (note, the sample size in the north is quite small).

Demographically, the PCs lead among men and women and among those over the age of 30. Among men, the PCs get 45% with the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 19%. Among women, the PCs get 35% followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 25%.

1 in 5 of those who said they voted Liberal in the 2021 federal election say they have or will vote PC in this provincial election.

BEST PREMIER? FORD LEADS BY ALMOST 20 POINTS

When asked which leader would make the best premier, 36% of respondents selected Mr. Ford followed by Ms. Horwath at 17% and Mr. Del Duca at 14%. 27% were unsure.

Among those who have already voted or are likely to vote, 41% selected Mr. Ford while Ms. Howarth and Mr. Del Duca are within a point of each other for second.

SO WHAT EXPLAINS THE PC ADVANTAGE?

#1 – DOUG FORD IS THE MOST POPULAR LEADER IN THE PROVINCE

Today, 39% of Ontarians have a positive impression of Doug Ford compared with 40% who have a negative view. His net impression score of -1 is the best of the four leaders we tested. Back in March 2020, 61% had a negative view compared with 23% who had a positive one.

When asked to describe Mr. Ford as a Premier, 64% described him as a great premier, a good premier, or an ok premier. Only 31% described him as either a bad or horrible premier over the past 4 years.

The relationship between one’s view of Mr. Ford’s performance and vote intention is very clear.

#2 – IMPRESSIONS OF DOUG FORD HAVEN’T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE CAMPAIGN AND NONE OF THE OTHER LEADERS HAVE MADE MUCH PROGRESS EITHER.

When we ask whether their impression of each of the main leaders has improved, stayed about the same, or worsened over the campaign, Mr. Ford’s net impact score is better than any of the others, except for Mr. Schrenier, the Green Party leader. For Mr. Del Duca, the least known of the three main party leaders when the campaign started, more said their impression of him worsened than improved.

#4 – THE PCs LEAD OR ARE COMPETITIVE ON THE TOP 5 ISSUES OF THE CAMPAIGN

The cost of living, housing affordability, healthcare, taxes, and the economy top the list of issues voters say will be most important in their vote.

When respondents are asked which party will do the best to deal with the issues they care most about, the PCs are well ahead or competitive on all five of those top issues including housing and healthcare.

#5 – THE DESIRE FOR CHANGE HAS BEEN STATIC OVER THE CAMPAIGN AND THE LIBERALS AND NDP CONTINUE TO EVENLY SPLIT CHANGE VOTERS.

50% of Ontarians definitely want to see a change in government, up slightly from last week but consistent with the view held at the start of the campaign.

These numbers are comparable to the 2021 federal election but far better for the incumbent PCs than the mood faced by Ms. Wynne and the Liberals as they sought re-election in 2018.

Among those who definitely want to see a change in the government, the Liberals and NDP split the vote almost evenly and this has not changed at all throughout the campaign.

One of the big reasons neither party has been able to close the gap with the PCs is because of this split.

#6 – HALF THINK THE PCs WILL WIN THE ELECTION AND ATTENTION TO THE CAMPAIGN REMAINS TEPID AT BEST.

When asked who they think will win the election, 48% select the PCs (up 3 from last week) followed by the Liberals at 21% and 9% for the NDP. Efforts by the NDP to position themselves as the party best able to beat PC candidates haven’t had much impact on public perceptions.

Attention to the campaign has increased slightly since last week but remains tepid at best. 43% of respondents say they have followed the campaign only a little or not at all.

#7 – FEAR OF ANOTHER PC GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED AND THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT’S PERFORMANCE DURING THE PANDEMIC HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON PEOPLE’S VOTE.

In this survey, we asked respondents whether the PC government’s handling of the pandemic, PC Party candidates refusing to participate in local debates or their general feelings about Doug Ford made them more or less likely to vote PC.

In all three cases, 35% or less said they were less likely to vote PC because of those factors – insufficient, in my view, to create more desire for change.

Moreover, when we ask whether a re-elected PC government would make several policy areas better or worse, less than 40% felt things like education, healthcare, climate action, access to abortions, or the economy broadly would be worse if the PCs were re-elected.

The only item that almost half of the respondents felt would get worse if the PCs were re-elected was their cost of living – something I think people feel would get worse regardless of which party wins the election.

In contrast, the PC message about building more highways seems to have broken through with 40% feeling the quality of highways in Ontario would get better if the PCs were re-elected, higher than any other item we tested.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “Doug Ford and the PC Party are likely to win another majority government tomorrow. They will likely repeat the vote share they earned in 2018 thanks to a relatively low desire for change, good issue ownership on the top issues, and less desirable alternatives.

In 2019, prior to the pandemic, more than 60% of Ontarians had a negative impression of Premier Ford. Today, that is only 40%. He is the most popular leader in Ontario and while some feel he has been a bad premier over the past four years, most Ontarians feel he has done at least an ok job as premier.

This assessment, in the absence of an alternative that excites the public, is clearly sufficient for the PCs and Mr. Ford to be re-elected.

The public has not been highly engaged in this campaign. The campaign has lacked friction and despite efforts to increase the desire for change and offer up a compelling alternative, the Liberals and NDP have failed to make any progress in turning people against Mr. Ford or positioning either of their parties as compelling, exciting, or worthy alternatives. Among those who definitely want a change in government, the Liberals and NDP are essentially tied in vote share. Neither has gained ownership of any of the top issues in the campaign, including issues like healthcare and housing affordability that the Liberals and NDP often own.

Perhaps most telling, there is no fear of another PC government. Most think that if the PCs are re-elected, policy areas like education, healthcare, climate change, and others will either get better or not change. Less than 40% think those things will get worse under a PC government. Those kinds of numbers are not sufficiently high enough to defeat a government in a multi-party system where the alternative parties are unable to consolidate the change vote around them.

Finally, although the New Blue Party and the Ontario Party are likely to win a substantial share of the vote, it likely isn’t enough to prevent the PCs from winning another majority government. If anything, the PCs effectively pivoted away from a more conservative orientation into one that focused on issues people care most about it. The PCs will win this election because they have the most popular leader and are seen as best able to handle the issues more voters care about. The party’s handling of the pandemic has not been a liability in this campaign.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 29 to June 1, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

What do Canadians think about the level of freedom in Canada?

Our latest nationwide public opinion survey asked Canadians a couple of questions about the topic of freedom, to test the resonance of Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre’s campaign promise to “make Canada the freest country in the world”.

The results suggest that the promise might not lack some pulling power, as the large majority of those we surveyed indicated that they felt Canada was relatively free already:

  • 12% say that Canada is the freest country in the world today
  • 47% say Canada is one of the freest countries in the world
  • 30% say Canada today is pretty free compared to many other places

That totals 89% who seem to feel that Canada is not particularly short on freedom, while a much smaller group (10%) felt otherwise:

  • 6% say Canada today is less free than many other places
  • 4% say Canada is one of the least free countries in the world

We also asked people if they felt they had enough freedom to live their own lives as they saw fit.  Again a large majority indicated that they were not lacking in freedom:

  • 37% said they had lots of freedom to live their life as they wish
  • 48% said they had enough freedom to live their life as they wish
  • 15% said they did not have enough freedom to live as they wish

To fully understand the resonance of Mr. Poilievre’s message it is important to examine subgroup differences, including among the partisans he is attempting to win support among.  Here is what our examination of those breakdowns found.

Canada’s freedom compared to other places:

  • 21% of those who self-describe as on the right of the spectrum, and 17% of current CPC voters, think Canada is less free than many other places.
  • Alberta is the province where the largest number of people see a lack of comparative freedom in Canada, but even there that view is only held by 18%
  • 54% of People’s Party voters believe Canada lacks freedom
  • Among those who feel Poilievre is the candidate who best reflects their values and ideas, only 22% think Canada trails other places in terms of freedom.

Personal freedom to live as I wish:

  • 23% of those who self-describe as on the right of the spectrum, and 20% of current CPC voters, say they lack the freedom to live as they wish.
  • Alberta and Ontario are the provinces where the largest number of people see a lack of personal freedom, but that view is only held by 17%
  • 61% of People’s Party voters feel they lack the personal freedom to live as they wish
  • Among those who think Poilievre is the candidate who best reflects their values and ideas, only 23% feel they lack personal freedom.
  • Among those who disapprove of the federal government only 27% feel they lack personal freedom
  • Among those who think Canada is headed in the wrong direction, 26% think they lack personal freedom.

UPSHOT

Conservative front runner Pierre Poilievre has based his campaign on tapping into a sentiment that is in somewhat short supply – the idea of Canada as a place where freedom is imperilled.

However, the ‘freedom’ pitch is about three times more resonant with supporters of the People’s Party than it is among supporters of the Conservative Party.

It may well be that the Poilievre strategy is based on drawing in and energizing those who would consider voting either Conservatives or People’s Party – and that strategy may turn out to be successful in a leadership race, where the goal is to get members to sign up and vote.

At the same time, it’s interesting to note that among Canadians in general – and even among a broader cross-section of those who vote Conservative – the message of more freedom is a bit like pushing string – people don’t feel it is solving a problem either in Canada or in their lives.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Pierre Poilievre may have the advantage, but his popularity is softening: New Abacus polling on Canadian politics.

Our latest nationwide public opinion survey shows little change on several of the variables that we track, but we do see evidence that Pierre Poilievre has lost some popularity over the last few weeks.

VOTE INTENTION & VOTER POOLS

Since 2022 began, the Liberals have been tracking between 30% and 33%, and so has the Conservative Party. Our most recent vote intention measures find the Conservatives and Liberals tied with 31%, the NDP at 19%, and the BQ at 8% (32% in Quebec).

Compared to the results of the last election, the Conservatives find themselves down three points, the Greens up 3 (to 5%) and no other party has seen a statistically significant shift.

Regional patterns continue to show a three-way split in BC, large advantages for the Conservatives on the Prairies, a modest Liberal lead in Ontario, a tight battle between Liberals and BQ in Quebec and a wide Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada.

Accessible voter pools show that 52% would consider voting Liberal, 46% NDP and 41% Conservative. The CPC pool is 5 points smaller than we found five weeks ago.

PUBLIC MOOD

Today 38% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, while 45% think it’s off on the wrong track. Views about the state of the world remain much more negative.

Approval of the federal government is fairly steady with 40% approving and 43% disapproving.

Public opinion about the federal party leaders also shows little change with Trudeau having a net score of -8 (36% positive – 44% negative). We have seen no movement for Jagmeet Singh, he remains the most popular national party leader with a net score of +14. Interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen is at a -11 net score.

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

Compared to our results in early-May, Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre has seen his positives decline by 4-points and his negatives grow by 4-points, meaning he went from a net score of +1 to a -7 over that period. Among current Conservative voters, the shift has been more noticeable: Poilievre has gone from a +43 to a +28. With his negatives rising 7-points. He remains the most liked candidate among Conservative voters. During the same period, Mr. Charest’s image has held steady among all Canadians but his negatives are up 4-points among CPC supporters as his net score shifted from +5 to +1.

The other candidates are less well known, and we see little shift in views except for Mr. Brown who has seen his positives among CPC supporters drop 6-points.

Among all Canadians, when asked which candidate best reflects their values and ideas, Jean Charest comes out on top with 32% followed by Pierre Poilievre at 26% and Patrick Brown at 17%. Charest had a 3-point advantage on this question in earlier this month, which has widened to a 6- point advantage.

Among current and accessible Conservative voters, Poilievre continues to lead by a wide margin but his lead over Charest has decreased going from 28-points in early May to 21-points today among CPC supporters and from 14-points to 9-points among those open to voting CPC.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Interest rates are rising and inflation is relatively high, but there is no sign that these factors are weakening the standing of the Trudeau Liberals – current findings would result in another victory, potentially a larger one, if an election were held today.

The findings of the Conservative leadership race are interesting in two respects.

First, for the party to see its accessible voter pool shrink as the race gains visibility is not a good sign, in an ideal world the opposite would be happening. Over the last month observers are finding the party less – rather than more – appealing.

Second, the downward shift in feelings about Mr. Poilievre may serve as a warning to him and his campaign – his policy positions and style clearly have stopping power, and he continues to hold a wide popularity lead among Conservative voters, but he is seeing in these results that his approach has the potential to create negative reactions too. Meanwhile, Jean Charest seems established as the second most popular candidate, and the one with the greatest potential to win votes from the Liberal Party in a general election. Time will tell whether this becomes a more central question for those choosing the next Conservative leader

According to David Coletto: “Although the federal political landscape appears to be quite static, we are seeing some noteworthy shifts in views about some of the candidates running to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. For the first time since we started tracking impressions of the candidates, Mr. Poilievre is showing that he is not immune to criticism and his image can be penetrated. Since earlier this month, his negatives with the general public are up 4-points while negative impressions among Conservative Party supporters are up 7. He is still by far the most liked candidate in the race, and more Conservative supporters think his values best reflect their own, but more than a week of fairly relentless critical commentary about his positions and outlook has taken its toll.

For Mr. Charest and the other candidates, this presents an opportunity and perhaps some hope that Mr. Poilievre is not unbeatable nor impenetrable to criticism. But Mr. Charest’s liabilities remain apparent. His image has not improved over the same time frame and among Conservative supporters, he remains the least popular (in terms of those with a negative impression of him).

For the Conservative Party more generally, a drop in its accessible voter pool and vote share should be concerning during the leadership race. This should be a time when the tent expands and more people pay attention to the party – not a time when it’s audience narrows.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Do Canadians Think Democracy Is in Decline Globally?

The year got off to a terrifying start with the invasion of Ukraine, a democracy, by Russia, an authoritarian regime, just a year after the US Capitol was stormed by those who wanted to prevent the peaceful transition of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden. In Hungary, just a few weeks ago, autocrat Viktor Orbán was comfortably re-elected, despite every opposing party uniting forces as a coalition to try and defeat him.

These events, and many more, raise the question; is democracy on the decline globally? Objectively, the answer is clearly yes. But does Canadian public perception match this reality and do people think it matters to their lives?

In a recent national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (conducted from May 3 to 6, 2022) we explored public perceptions about democracy globally and what role Canada can play in defending and promoting it around the world.

GLOBAL DECLINE IN DEMOCRACY

Almost half of Canadians (46%) believe that democracy around the world is retreating and declining, while 19% think it is advancing. Many, however, are not sure (34%). Those who are not sure share a broader isolationist world view that leads them to be disengaged with world affairs.

Younger Canadians (those under 45 years) are the most optimistic that democracy is advancing. Men are also slightly more optimistic than women. Those with more formal education are less likely to be unsure of what is happening globally to democracy but do recognize the global decline.

The decline in democracy is understood to matter to those who see the decline. One in four (24%) Canadians who recognizes that democracy is retreating and declining think this decline will have a big impact on their life. Few people (5% not at all) don’t think the democratic decline will impact them at all. However, given that most people think the impact will be limited, it’s likely that the direct link between democracy globally and their lives here in Canada are only tenuously understood.

Perceptions of the state of democracy around the world are strongly tied to overall perceptions of the world. When we ask whether the world is heading in the right direction or off on the wrong track, Canadians are twice as likely to say it is on the wrong track if they feel that democracy is retreating and declining versus those who feel democracy is advancing and growing. Canadians who think the world is off on the wrong track are much less likely to think democracy is advancing.

CANADA’S ROLE IN PROMOTING DEMOCRACY

While Canadians are pessimistic about the spread of democracy around the world, they view the promotion of democracy and human rights as the top source of pride in Canada’s foreign policy. Our armed forces and defence capabilities are the greatest source of pride for the fewest Canadians (7%).

When given the choice of working with allies to promote and defend democracy or focusing on strengthening their own country, Canadians choose by a 2 to 1 margin an internationalist approach. One in four (26%) would not get involved in international efforts to prevent the spread of authoritarianism and 22% don’t have a clear view either way.

Younger Canadians are less likely than their older counterparts to want to promote and defend democracy, but this is mostly because they are much less likely to have a clear view of the trade-off (35%). Those 60 years of age and older are the most committed to promoting and defending democracy (68%).

Ideological self-identification is strongly associated with the preferred approach to promoting democracy around the world, with those on the left much more supportive. Reflecting this, those who are open to voting Liberal and NDP are the most likely to adopt a pro-democracy posture. Those open to voting for the People’s Party of Canada and the Maverick party are the least likely to support promoting and defending democracy around the world.

UPSHOT

Many Canadians understand that democracy around the world is in decline but this is still a minority viewpoint. More work needs to be done to not only define the problem, make it salient, but also make it relevant for people. It is easy to look at this finding and be discouraged. The silver lining in these results is the strong commitment and desire among Canadians to be active promoters of democracy around the world.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 3 to 6, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPolls

Ontario PCs lead by 8: Debate does little as the desire for change drops

With less than two weeks to go before the Ontario election ends, we just completed a survey of 1,500 eligible voters conducted from May 18 to 21, 2022.

Here’s a quick summary of the results:

  1. PCs lead by 8 over the OLP (PC 36, OLP 28, NDP 24)
  2. The Leaders’ Debate lifts the image of all four leaders.
  3. Doug Ford wins the debate because he didn’t lose it.
  4. More now think the PCs will win the election.
  5. NDP and OLP continue to almost evenly split support among “change voters”


DETAILED RESULTS

PC LEAD HOLDS: PCs AHEAD BY 8 AS OLP AND NDP VOTE SHARE HOLD STEADY

If the election was held today, the PCs would win the popular vote easily over the Ontario Liberals. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 36% of the vote (up 1) with the Ontario Liberals at 28% (unchanged) and the Ontario NDP at 24% (unchanged). The Ontario Greens are at 5% (unchanged) while other parties get 8% of the vote (up 1).

Regionally, we find the PCs ahead or statistically tied in all regions of the province. They lead by 3 over the OLP in Metro Toronto, lead by 4 in the rest of the GTHA, ahead by 19 in Eastern Ontario and ahead by 14 points in southwestern Ontario.


The PCs have a 22-point lead among those aged 60 and over, and a 12-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. The PCs and Liberals are tied among those aged 30 to 44 while the Liberals and NDP are tied among those aged 18 to 29. Only 1 in 5 younger voters say they will vote PC.

Among those most likely to vote, the gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals grows to 12-points with the PCs at 39%, the Liberals at 27%, and the NDP at 22%. This is almost the exact same results as last week.

WHY HAS THERE BEEN LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR?

#1 – Attention to the campaign has increased, but not by much.

When asked how closely they are following the election campaign, 54% are following it very or somewhat closely (up by 5 points from last week) while 46% are following it only a little, not at all, or didn’t even know there was an election.

But the PCs are leading among those following the campaign very closely (44% to 28% for the OLP) and among those who say they are following it somewhat closely (38% to 27%).

#2 – The desire for change is down by 4 points.

Over the past week, those definitely wanting to see a change in government have dropped by 4-points to 48% while those wanting to see the PCs definitely re-elected have increased by 2-points. Typically, we see the desire for change increase as a campaign goes on. This is unusual and unique to this campaign.

The desire for change in Ontario is far lower than the week before the 2018 provincial election and lower than in the final weekend of the 2021 federal election.

The NDP and OLP continue to split support among “change voters”. The Liberals have gained 3-points in the past week but the two parties get almost an equal share of this group which almost entirely explains why neither has made any gains in vote intention province-wide. Unless this changes in the final week and half of the campaign, the PCs should be very well positioned to win.

#3 – DEBATE REACTION: None of the leaders won or lost the debate, meaning Doug Ford won the debate.

In this survey, respondents were asked whether they watched or heard about the leaders’ debate held on Monday May 16 and what their reaction was among those who had watched or heard about it.

When asked which leader did the most to win their vote, 35% picked Doug Ford followed by Del Duca at 19%, Horwath at 20%, and Schreiner at 8%.

When asked which leader did the most to lose their vote, Doug Ford was most likely to be selected again with 32% followed by Horwath and Del Duca at 20% and Schreiner at 6%.

When asked whether their performance at the leaders’ debate left them with a positive or negative impression, all four leaders were net positive meaning more said they had a favourable impression of them at the debate than a negative one.

Overall, Mike Schreiner had the highest net positive (+29), followed by Horwath (+26), Ford (+20), and Del Duca (+13).  Based on these results, none of the leaders really lost the debate and everyone made at least a net favourable impression.

#4 – Doug Ford’s personal image has improved again, as have

Since last week, Doug Ford’s positives are up 6-points while his negatives are down 5. An equal proportion of eligible voters have a positive and negative impression of the PC Leader.

Ms. Horwath’s positives are up 4-points, Mr. Del Duca’s are up 5-points, while Mike Schreiner has seen a 7-point increase in those who have a positive view of him. Mr. Del Duca has the worst net impression with a score of -10. Mr. Schreiner is at -4 while Ms. Horwath and Mr. Ford are tied at 0.

Since the start of the campaign, about equal numbers of people say their impression of Doug Ford has improved or worsened. Ms. Horwath has seen the most positive improvement (+8) followed by Mr. Schreiner (+7). While more people in total say their impressions of Mr. Del Duca have changed – not surprising because of how few people knew of him – about equal numbers say their impressions have improved or worsened. In other words, Mr. Del Duca’s performance on the campaign has earned him as many supporters as he has detractors.

Doug Ford remains well ahead on which leader would make the best premier. 35% pick Mr. Ford (up 1) followed by Ms. Horwath at 19% and Mr. Del Duca at 16%. 25% were unsure down 4 from last week.

#5 – More now think the PCs will win the election with the NDP well back in third.

When asked which party they think will win the election, 45% think the PCs will win (up 3 from last week) while 22% think the Liberals will. Only 10% think the NDP will win.

#6 – The PCs continue to own and are competitive on the top issues of the campaign.

When asked what three issues are most likely to impact their vote, “reducing the cost of living” remains at the top of the list with 64% putting it in their top 3 (up 2). “Housing affordability and accessibility”, “improving the healthcare system”, “keeping taxes from going up”, and “growing the economy and creating good jobs” round out the top 5. The only noticeable change from last week is a 3-point increase in those saying “long-term care and seniors care” was a top issue from 19% to 22%. There has also been a 3-point increase in those selecting “responding to the COVID-19 pandemic).

When those who ranked an issue in their top 3 were asked which party was best able to deal with it, the PCs lead in reducing the cost of living, keeping taxes from going up, and growing the economy. There are slightly behind the NDP on housing affordability and in a three-way tie with the OLP and NDP on improving the healthcare system.

A FEW OTHER INTERESTING RESULTS:

#1 – PROBLEM DEFINITION: More think the cost of housing, health professional shortages, wait times for surgeries, and poverty are big problems in the province.  Far fewer think traffic congestion, cancel culture, or class sizes are big problems.

#2 – PROBLEM DEFINITION & THE VOTE: The PCs lead among those who think the cost of housing is a big problem, as well as those who say health professional shortages, wait times, and those unable to find a family doctor are big problems in the province.

Among those who say climate change is a big problem, the NDP is ahead by 7 over the OLP with the PCs in third. Among those who say the cost of university and college tuition is a big problem, the NDP, OLP, and PCs are basically tied.

The New Blue Party and other parties do best among those who say “too much government regulation”, “political division and polarization”, and “cancel culture” are big problems in the province.

#3 – HIGHWAY 413: 47% of Ontarians either support or can accept building Highway 413 while 30% are opposed.

Support or acceptance of the highway is fairly consistent across the province with 51% supporting/accepting in the rest of the GTHA.

The PCs have an almost 30-point lead among those who support building Highway 413, and a 21-point lead among those who can accept it while the NDP and Liberals are almost evenly split and tied among those who oppose it.

#4 – BILL 124 AND PUBLIC SECTOR PAY FREEZES: Ontarians are almost evenly divided on whether it is a good idea or bad idea for the provincial government to freeze most public sector workers’ pay increases to 1% per year. 34% think it is a good idea while 38% think it is a bad idea. PC supporters are more likely to favour it while NDP supporters are more likely to oppose it. OLP and Green supporters are more split.

When asked to pick between two statements regarding Bill 124, framing the decision to freeze public sector wage increases at 1% as unfair and bad public policy gets far more traction than the fiscal constraint argument.  Even 46% of PC supporters are inclined to think the wage freeze is bad public policy when it’s framed around recruitment and retention.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “Very little has changed over the past week. The PCs continue to have a healthy lead overall, and an even larger lead among more motivated voters. The debates have done little to change people’s impressions – if anything, voters were generally impressed with all four leaders and therefore Doug Ford came out the real winner.

The desire for change is down, Ford’s personal image has improved, and the PCs still dominate three of the five top issues in the campaign, including the most important issue – the cost of living.

The NDP and Liberals continue to evenly split support among “change voters” and neither has any momentum at the moment. If this doesn’t change in the next week, Doug Ford should easily get re-elected as the Liberals and NDP fight it out for second place.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 18 to 21, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Ontario PCs lead by 7: Ford’s negative rise as leaders are set to debate

As the four main party leaders prepare to debate tonight, we completed our second survey of the Ontario election campaign yesterday interviewing 1,000 eligible voters.

Here’s what we found:

RACE TIGHTENS: PCs LEAD BY 7 OVER THE LIBERALS. NDP AT 24%.

If the election was held today, the PCs would win the popular vote easily over the Ontario Liberals. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 35% of the vote (down 3) with the Ontario Liberals at 28% (down 1) and the Ontario NDP at 24% (up 2). The Ontario Greens are at 5% while other parties get 7% of the vote.

Regionally, we find the PCs trailing the Liberals in Metro Toronto, but ahead in the GTHA (postal code starts with L), and leading by a wide margin in eastern and southwestern Ontario.


The PCs also lead among eligible voters over 44 with a 14-point lead among those 60+, and a 15-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. The Liberals are slightly ahead among those aged 30 to 44 while the NDP and Liberals are tied among those under 30.

Among those most likely to vote, the gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals grows to 12-points with the PCs at 39%, the Liberals at 27%, and the NDP at 23%.

WHAT SHOULD WE BE WATCHING CLOSELY?

#1 – Will attention to the campaign increase? Right now, few are paying that much attention to the campaign so far.

When asked how closely they are following the election campaign, 49% are following it very or somewhat closely while 51% are following it only a little, not at all, or didn’t even know there was an election.

The PCs lead by 4 among those following the election closely and by 14 among those following it somewhat closely. They also lead by 4 among those following it only a little.

#2 – Will the desire for change increase? We see a slight uptick over the past week. 

Over the past week, those definitely wanting to see a change in government have increased marginally by 3-points to 52% while those wanting to see the PCs definitely re-elected has held steady.

The desire for change in Ontario is far lower than the week before the 2018 provincial election but is now slightly higher than in the final weekend of the 2021 federal election.

Among those change voters, the NDP has now opened up a 5-point lead over the Liberals (39% to 34%). Last week, the Ontario Liberals were slightly ahead. But the key insight is that change voters remain largely divided between the alternatives to the PCs. This is allowing them to maintain a lead and their advantage for re-election.

#3 – Fear of another PC government isn’t that high. Few think their lives will be better if they are replaced and few fear different outcomes if they are re-elected.

In this survey, respondents were asked how their life would be affected over four years if the PC government was replaced with another party after the election. Overall, 37% think their lives would be better (although 25% say it would only improve slightly) while 25% don’t think there would be much difference. 21% say their life would be worse while 17% are not sure.

The relationship between the response to this question and vote intention shows how important it is for the Liberals and NDP to ligitate the case against another Ford government and how the PCs are benefiting from the sense that change wouldn’t make much difference to many people’s lives. Among those who think life would be better if the PCs were replaced, only 13% would vote PC while 41% would vote Liberal and 35% would vote NDP. Among those who think replacing the PCs would have little impact on their lives, the PCs lead the Liberals by 12. Among those who think their life would be worse if the PCs were replaced, the PCs are ahead by 52 points.

We also asked whether a re-elected PC government would make certain policy areas better, worse, or make no difference. The areas where more think the PCs would make things worse include the cost of living (43% worse), the amount of tax they pay (37% worse), and the quality of healthcare in the province (33% worse). But most respondents think a re-elected PC government would either make all these areas better or it wouldn’t make much difference.

For the PCs, this confirms a lack of “friction” in the campaign. Not enough voters fear them being re-elected. For the Liberals and NDP, these numbers will need to be much higher if they have any chance of defeating the government.

#4 – Doug Ford’s personal image has weakened since the start of the campaign. But neither Horwath nor Del Duca’s images have improved.

Since the start of the campaign, Doug Ford’s negatives are up 6-points to 44% while those with a positive view are down 5 to 33%. This is a significant shift over the past week.

But despite this shift in views towards Mr. Ford, Ms. Horwath and Mr. Del Duca have seen little change in their own views and Mr. Ford remains the most popular leader in the province.

Despite the shift in Mr. Ford’s personal numbers, he remains well ahead on which leader would make the best premier. 34% pick Mr. Ford (down 1) followed by Ms. Horwath at 20% and Mr. Del Duca at 15%. 29% were unsure.

#5 – More still think the PCs will win the election with the NDP well back in third.

When asked which party they think will win the election, 42% think the PCs will win while 22% think the Liberals will. Only 11% think the NDP will win. This is largely unchanged from last week.

Despite efforts by the NDP to position themselves as the best able to defeat the PCs over the first week of the campaign, far more think the Liberals are better positioned to win than the NDP and may be a key factor in any effort to consolidate change voters over the next few weeks.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “With less than three weeks to go, the election is still Doug Ford’s to lose. The Tories have a 7-point lead and hold strong leads outside Metro Toronto and among older voters. More importantly, given the low attention being paid to the campaign so far, Ford and the PCs are well ahead among those who say they will definitely vote.

There is little evidence that change voters are consolidating around either the Liberals or NDP, despite far more thinking the Liberals will win than the NDP.

If Ford’s negatives continue to rise, expect the desire for change to increase as well. There is still an opening for the opposition parties but with less than three weeks left, they will need to move more aggressively to make the case for change. Right now, too few fear another Ford government to raise interest in the campaign and encourage consolidation around an alternative.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from May 12 to 15, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Political preferences are stable, as Canada exits pandemic, copes with inflation

Our latest nationwide public opinion survey shows little movement over the last couple of months. Since 2022 began, the Liberals have been tracking between 30% and 33%, and so has the Conservative Party. The most recent results find the Conservatives with 33%, Liberals 31% and NDP at 19%. Since the year started, the NDP has been tracking between 17% and 20%. Patterns are similarly flat for the BQ and the Green Party.

These results in every case, are not materially different from the result each party had on Election Day last fall. Regional patterns continue to show a tight three-way split in BC, large advantages for the Conservatives on the Prairies, a modest Liberal lead in Ontario, a tight battle between Liberals and BQ in Quebec, and a wide Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada.

Accessible voter pools for each of the three main parties are not changing. 52% say they would consider voting Liberal, 47% NDP, and 43% Conservative. The Conservative number is identical to the number we saw 6 weeks ago.

PUBLIC MOOD

Today 41% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, while 42% think it’s off on the wrong track. Our last three readings have seen an average of 40% indicating “right direction” which is up from the 34% levels we were picking up in February.

Views about the state of the world remain much more negative. Only 24% feel that the US and the world are heading in the right direction.

Approval of the federal government is steady with 41% approving and 42% disapproving (+2). Approval is up 3-points since early February. During the Trucker Convoy, government approval was net -7, today it is net -1.


Public impressions of leaders reveals similar improvement for Justin Trudeau if we look back to that February period, where his net rating was -11,  today it is -5. There is no movement for Jagmeet Singh, he remains the most popular national party leader. The interim Conservative leader is tracking steady at a -9 net score.

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

Among Canadians in general, the Conservative leadership race has not had much impact on public opinion so far. Impressions of the candidates are essentially unchanged from mid-April.

Among Conservative voters, Pierre Poilievre remains the most popular candidate, followed by Jean Charest. The other candidates are much less well known, although all find more positive than negative opinion.

Among CPC voters, each of the candidates finds more positive opinions compared to our mid-April reading, although the shift is just 1% for Mr. Poilievre, and 3% or more for each of the others.

Among all Canadians, when asked which candidate best reflects their values and ideas, Jean Charest comes out on top with 30% followed by Pierre Poilievre at 27% and Patrick Brown at 20%. Among current and accessible Conservative voters, the answer to that question tilts decidedly towards Poilievre.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Economic challenges so far are not affecting political preferences and the same is true for the Conservative leadership race.  The Trudeau government is in roughly the same position it was in when it won the election last fall and appears to have weathered a rough winter with the pandemic and the related protests about vaccine mandates.  Overall the picture resembles a country that has other things than national politics on its mind, as summer comes into view and life starts to feel more normal.”

According to David Coletto: “For many months now, public opinion about federal politics has been quite stable. The Conservative Party’s leadership race hasn’t yet had much impact on wider impressions while the federal government’s approval rating and impressions of the Prime Minister have stabilized and returned to the norm we’ve measured for the year prior to the trucker occupation and protests in February. Inflation, rising interests and the corresponding economic worries they might bring have not yet had any meaningful impact on people’s views or intended political choices.

Pierre Poilievre continues to be the most popular Conservative leadership candidate by a wide-maramong those who support the party today “

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 3 to 6, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Poll: Ontarians Are Interested in Electric Vehicles, but Lack of Provincial Action Is a Barrier

In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, we surveyed 1500 residents of Ontario as the province enters a provincial election campaign.

Key findings include:

  • 55% think climate change is a serious problem and more action needs to be taken to fight it, but only 25% think Premier Doug Ford would agree with that assessment.
  • A majority (63%) of Ontarians now believe that, when you look at the lifetime costs of a car (including maintenance, repairs, insurance and energy to power it), electric vehicles are cheaper than gas vehicles.
  • When informed that EV sales in Ontario lag the pace seen in other parts of the country, a majority are unhappy and would either like to see Ontario keep pace (28%) or lead (28%).
  • When asked what might account for lagging EV sales in Ontario, the top factors according to survey respondents are the lack of a provincial rebate and an inadequate number of charging stations.
  • Thinking about the next car they would purchase, more Ontarians now say they lean towards choosing electric (53%) than gas or diesel (47%). The preference for EVs is particularly profound among younger people.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data: “For many years, the fate and future of the automotive sector was a conversation that influenced politics in the province of Ontario, and now we are seeing a new phase in that conversation.  Many voters want more action to fight climate change and many like the appeal of e-vehicles as a choice they can make to help protect the planet.  As people see the array of e-vehicle choices coming online and hear the experiences of others, the public demand for e-vehicles is on the rise, and so too is the expectation for government policies that will help make it easier to switch from combustion engines to electric or hybrid vehicles.

According to Joanna Kyriazis, clean transportation program manager at Clean Energy Canada: “Ontarians aren’t happy about their province’s poor EV performance—and rightly so. There was a higher proportion of EVs sold in the Yukon last year than in Canada’s most populous province. A lack of provincial EV policies has meant that the majority of new EVs made for the Canadian market are sent to Quebec and B.C., making it even harder for Ontarians to get behind the wheel. And with gas prices soaring, the longer the wait, the more wallets will be squeezed at the gas pump. EVs offer a popular and effective solution to both climate change and rising living costs. It’s time for the provincial government to do more to help Ontarians make the switch.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Ontario adults from May 5 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Clean Energy Canada.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Ontario PCs open up a 9-point lead: Why Doug Ford is well positioned to be re-elected.

As the Ontario provincial election started, we conducted a survey of 1,500 eligible voters in the province from May 5 to 9, 2022.

The results indicate that the Ontario PC Party is in a solid position to be re-elected in early June barring any major shifts in public opinion.

In this report, we explore the reasons for this conclusion by looking at several key indicators we will track throughout the election.

PCs LEAD BY 9 OVER THE LIBERALS. NDP AT 22%

If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 38% of the vote with the Ontario Liberals at 29% and the Ontario NDP at 22%. The Ontario Greens are at 5% while other parties get 7% of the vote.

Since April, the PCs are up 2, the Liberals down 3, and the NDP and Greens are holding fairly steady.

Regionally, we find the PCs trailing the Liberals in Metro Toronto, but ahead by a wide margin in the GTHA (postal code starts with L), eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario.


The PCs also lead among eligible voters over 30 with a 14-point lead among those 60+, a 13-point lead among those aged 45 to 59, and a 13-point lead among those aged 30 to 44. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 34% with the PCs well back at 20%.

In our survey, 76% of respondents reported owning a car and among car owners, the PCs lead by 14-points over the Liberals. Among those who don’t own a car, the PCs trail behind in third.

The PCs also have a big lead among those who own their home. In the GTHA (including Metro Toronto), the PCs lead by 6 among those who own their home but trail the Liberals by 13 among renters. Outside of the GTHA, the PCs lead by 35-points over the Liberals.

Among those most likely to vote, the gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals is also 9% with the PCs getting 38%, the Liberals getting 29% and 20% for the NDP.

WHAT EXPLAINS THE PC’S DOMINANT POSITION?

#1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs.

Over the past few weeks, the desire for change hasn’t varied. Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government (down 1 since April) while 19% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome.

The desire for change in Ontario is far lower than the week before the 2018 provincial election and a little less than the final weekend of the 2021 federal election.

Perhaps most important,  “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split almost evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention.

One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:

(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or

(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.

Case in point, if half of “change voters” currently favouring the NDP switch to the Liberals, then they would be even with the PCs in vote intention. The same would happen if half of Liberal “change voters” switch to the NDP.

#2 – The PCs lead or are competitive on the top 5 most important issues to voters.

Reducing the cost of living remains a top issue for more than half of Ontarians (59%). Housing affordability, healthcare, taxes, and growing the economy round out the top 5.

The cost of living as a top issue is up 7-points since April while housing affordability and healthcare rose by 3-points.

When those who care about each issue are asked which party is best able to handle the issue, the PCs are ahead or competitive for all of the top 5 issues.

The PCs lead by 18 on reducing the cost of living, are in a three-way tie with the NDP and Liberals on housing affordability and healthcare, and have a massive advantage in keeping taxes from going up and growing the economy.

Unless the other parties can close this issue advantage or another issue rises to prominence over the next three weeks, the PC advantage will persist.

#3 – Doug Ford’s personal image is stronger than the other party leaders and is in a better place than it has been for much of his time as Premier.

Beyond the desire for change and issue ownership, Doug Ford’s personal image remains relatively strong.

More people have a positive view of the PC leader than any of his opponents and Mr. Ford’s negatives are lower than they have been for much of 2021 and certainly before 2020.

The anger against Doug Ford is no longer as widespread as it was in the past. About 1 in 4 have a “very negative” view of the Premier and among this group, 39% are voting Liberal while 38% will vote NDP. The split among opposition parties is a big factor explaining Ford’s lead.

In comparison to Mr. Ford, NDP leader Andrea Horwath has about equal numbers viewing her positively and negatively while Mr. Del Duca remains the least well-known leader and has more who view him negatively than do positively.

Moreover, when we ask respondents which leader is most likely to have a series of leadership traits or characteristics, Doug Ford leads on everyone. More people see him as tough, competent, having the best vision, and most willing to admit when they make a mistake. He’s also seen as the most honest.

Ms. Horwath comes second in all of these but doesn’t beat Mr. Ford in any of the attributes.

Beyond their images, when asked which leader would make the best Premier, Doug Ford easily wins, leading Ms. Horwath by 16-points and Mr. Del Duca by 19.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “As the first week of the campaign ends, Doug Ford and the PCs are in the driver’s seat. The PCs have a wide lead in vote intention, have the most popular leader, and own or are competitive on the top issues on voters’ minds.

If nothing changes in the opinion environment between now and early June, the PCs should win another majority.

But the data also shows a path forward for either the NDP or the Liberals. Neither has a clear advantage among those people who deeply want to see the PCs and Doug Ford replaced. Both leaders, for different reasons, remain blank slates for millions of Ontarians who either don’t know them (Del Duca) or don’t have strong views (Horwath). Strong performances in the debates or a mistake by the PCs could create an opportunity to consolidate the anti-PC forces.

If consolidation is going to happen, it’s more likely to happen around the Liberals. Why? Well, more Ontarians say they identify with the Liberal Party (they see themselves as Liberals) than with the NDP – 27% Liberal vs. 16% NDP – and when asked who they think will win the election – far more think the Liberals will win than do the NDP.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 5 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

State of the Province: How Do Nova Scotians Feel About the Provincial Government and Their Political Choices?

As Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is set to deliver his first annual State of the Province Address tomorrow, in partnership with Summa Strategies, we surveyed 500 Nova Scotia residents from April 14 to 21 exploring their overall mood, their views on the government’s performance today, the top issues in the province, and what their specific priorities are when it comes to healthcare in the province.

Here’s what we found:

MOOD OF THE PROVINCE: MORE THINK THE PROVINCE IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION THAN OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK

Right now, 43% of Nova Scotians believe the province is headed in the right direction compared with 35% who think it is off on the wrong track. Another 22% are unsure.

These views are influenced by perceptions about the economy where about half describe the state of the provincial economy as good and about half think it is performing poorly. Those living in or around Halifax are slightly more likely to think the economy is doing well than those living in other regions of the province (Halifax 50% very good/good vs. other regions 43%).

For about half of the province, the rising cost of living is a concern with 30% saying they are very worried about their ability to deal with the rising cost of living and another 17% saying they are pretty worried.

TOP ISSUES: HEALTHCARE, INFLATION, AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY TOP THE LIST

When asked to rate the top three issues facing the province, healthcare, inflation, and housing affordability clearly stand out as most important to a majority of Nova Scotians. 70% rated healthcare as a top issue, followed closely by inflation at 68% and housing affordability rounding out the top 3 at 54%.

Other top issues included the economy (24%), infrastructure like roads (19%), the environment and climate change (17%), and drug addiction and mental health (11%).

PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Nova Scotians are much more likely to approve of the job performance of the provincial government than disapprove. 46% approve while 25% disapprove. The remaining 30% neither approve nor disapprove. It is worth noting that while more approve than disapprove, only 7% strongly approve of the government’s performance – suggesting residents are generally positive about the approach and performance but not enthusiastic about it. This muted approval is confirmed when we explore specific policy areas.

Among NS PC voters in 2021, 72% approve of the government’s performance to date while 9% disapprove. A plurality of opposition party voters also approve of the government’s performance including 53% of NS Liberal voters and 37% of NDP voters.

When asked to rate the provincial government’s performance in specific areas, a clear majority describe the government’s performance as acceptable or better when it comes to education, climate change and the environment, the provincial budget, and growing the economy. However, evaluations are less positive when it comes to keeping taxes low, improving the healthcare system, and keeping the cost of living manageable. On two of the top issues in the province, the provincial government’s negative ratings are higher.

Despite some friction on a few key issues, most Nova Scotians feel that the provincial government, first elected in August 2021, has performed about as well as they expected or better (Better 19%, As expected 47%). In contrast, 23% feel it has performed worse than they expected.

PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES? HEALTHCARE, HOUSING, ELECTRICITY, AND COVID-19

Respondents were shown a list of possible things the provincial government could focus on and asked to rate how much of a priority each should be.

81% felt that improving the healthcare system should be a top priority, far higher than any other issue. Another 68% rated housing affordability as a top issue followed by dealing with COVID-19 (53%) and the price of electricity (52%).

Economic growth (47%), improving the job situation in the province (41%), and dealing with drug addiction and mental health issues (41%) were rated as a top priority by more than 40% of respondents.

HOW IS THE GOVERNMENT DOING IMPROVING HEALTHCARE IN NOVA SCOTIA?

When asked how the provincial government is doing fixing the healthcare system, as it promised to do in the last provincial election, 18% feel the government is making good progress in improving the system while 33% feel it is making some progress, but less than they expected at this point. 35% feel the government has done very little to improve healthcare.

Among those who voted PC in the last election, 30% think the government is making good progress in improving the healthcare system 41% think it’s made some progress, but less than expected, while 19% feel it has done very little so far.

Among the 81% who felt healthcare should be a top priority for the provincial government, 17% feel it has made good progress, 32% think it has made some progress, but less than expected while 38% think it has done very little to address the issue.

There is some skepticism about the government’s ability to fix the problem. While 53% think that fixing the healthcare system could definitely or could probably happen, 46% are less convinced.

ACCESS TO FAMILY DOCTORS IS THE TOP HEALTHCARE PRIORITY FOR NOVA SCOTIANS

When asked to rate the importance of specific improvement areas in healthcare, 52% said increasing the number of family doctors where they are most needed should be the top priority, followed by 16% who felt more specialists to tackle long wait times was the top priority. 14% wanted to see collaborative care clinics be the priority while 11% wanted to see more nurses being allowed to do more for patients.

VIEWS ON PREMIER HOUSTON AND POSSIBLE OPPOSITION LEADERS

Overall, Premier Houston’s personal image is quite positive. 43% have a positive impression of him while only 18% have a negative view. 28% have a neutral impression while 10% are unsure. Among those who voted PC in the last provincial election, 75% have a positive view while 4% have a negative one. 50% of Liberal voters and 29% of NDP voters have a positive view of the premier.

In contrast, when we ask about candidates running to be leaders of the NS Liberal Party and NDP, 19% have a positive view of MLA Zach Churchill, compared with 14% who have a negative view. 34% have a neutral view while 33% don’t know him well enough to have an opinion. Angela Simmonds, another candidate for the NS Liberal leadership is viewed positively by 15% while 12% have a negative view. 43% don’t know enough about her.

NDP leadership candidate and MLA Claudia Chender has 17% who view her positively with 9% who view her negatively. 43% also don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.

When we asked whether a series of descriptions apply or not to Premier Tim Houston, in every example, more think the term applies than not. 61% think he is intelligent, 52% think he’s likable, and 45% would describe him as a strong and decisive leader. Twenty percent or less don’t think those terms apply to him.

More also think that he cares about all regions of the province, is honest and trustworthy, can manage the government effectively, and cares about the needs of people like them than don’t.

VOTE INTENTION: PCs LEAD BY 8 OVER THE LIBERALS

When asked how they would vote if an election were held today, the PCs would very likely win another majority government. 39% would vote PC followed by the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 23%. Apart from a dip in Liberal support, these results line up close to the results of the 2021 provincial election.

Among the 81% who said healthcare should be a top priority for the provincial government, 42% would vote PC, 31% Liberal, and 21% NDP.

In Halifax, it’s a close three-way race with the PCs at 32%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 29%. Outside HRM, the PCs have a big 13-point lead, with 44% compared with 31% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “It has been 244 days since Tim Houston and the PCs were sworn in as the new government in Nova Scotia. So far, most Nova Scotians have been satisfied with the government’s performance and far more have positive views of the premier than negative ones.

Nova Scotians want to see action on three issues in particular – healthcare, the cost of living, and housing – and most think the government will be able to fix the healthcare system as it promised. So far, most of those who voted PC and many who didn’t are giving the government the benefit of the doubt.

While this survey was conducted prior to the release of the government’s healthcare plan, it’s clear that perceptions about the healthcare system and the government’s performance in improving it will be a key driver to how people feel about the government overall. Its election promise to fix healthcare was instrumental in its election. And its performance delivering will likely be critical to how Nova Scotians evaluate its performance.”

According to Shay Purdy, from Summa Strategies: “The Houston government will be pleased to see that the issues they prioritized through the opening legislative session and in their first budget remain very top-of-mind for Nova Scotians. While the prominence of these top issues of health care, cost of living, and housing affordability creates a clear picture for the government of where they should continue to be focused, there will absolutely be a challenge in meeting expectations in these areas – all of which, it could be argued, are currently in some degree of crisis.

The Premier’s personal numbers and the government’s approval ratings are also looking quite strong, even among those who voted for a different party in the last election. Incoming leaders of the Nova Scotia Liberals and the New Democrats have their work cut out for them following their leadership decisions, which take place in late June and early July.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with n=500 Nova Scotia residents aged 18 and over from April 14 to 21, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc and Summa Strategies Canada Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

ABOUT SUMMA STRATEGIES

Summa Strategies Canada provides a full suite of public affairs services grounded in a firm understanding of the political environment, government process and legislative procedure. Headquartered in Ottawa, we help our clients interpret and navigate their landscape of opportunities and challenges with the federal government and provincial governments across the country

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