Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs climb to 53%, widen lead over Liberals to 26 points
As Ontario heads into the fall, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives remain firmly in control of the province’s political landscape. The latest Abacus Data survey shows the PCs strengthening their position even further, as the Premier’s personal brand continues to outperform all rivals, while the opposition parties struggle to gain traction.
Six months after the election, the PCs appear to be consolidating—not just holding—their support, with rising vote share, stable approval, and a broad base of backing across demographics and regions
Vote Intention: PCs Expand Lead to 26 Points
If a provincial election were held today, 53% of committed voters would cast their ballot for the Ontario PC Party, up 3 points since mid-July and marking their highest share we have ever measured for them. The Ontario Liberals sit at 27% (-1), while the NDP has declined again to 12% (-1). The Greens now register 5% (-1), with other parties at 4%.
This extends the PC lead over the Liberals to 26 points, a margin not seen since the immediate post-election period.
Over the past six months, the PC vote has steadily climbed, from the low 40s in March to the low 50s today, with the opposition parties either stagnating or declining in that time. This trendline reflects a government benefiting from a political environment still largely defined by Trump and the cost of living – two issues that Ford and the PCs are seen to perform well on.
Approval: Ford Government Holding at 48%
The Ford government’s job performance rating also continues to hold firm. As of August, 48% approve of the job Ford and his government are doing (+4 since mid-July), while 30% disapprove (-2). This yields a net +18, the highest level recorded since early 2024.
Approval has been trending upward since early November, when it hovered around 33%. Since then, public support has steadily increased, rising 15 points since the U.S. Presidential election.
This trend suggests growing comfort with Ford’s leadership style and performance, especially amid broader economic and geopolitical concerns dominating the public discourse.
Doug Ford Remains the Most Popular Leader
Doug Ford continues to enjoy the strongest personal ratings among provincial leaders. His net impression sits at +14, with 46% of Ontarians viewing him positively and 32% negatively. Only 2% say they don’t know enough to offer an opinion. This is a sign of both familiarity and entrenchment.
By contrast, Bonnie Crombie is viewed positively by 30% and negatively by 33% (net -3), while Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner both register net scores of 0. Notably, one in five Ontarians still say they don’t know enough about Stiles (17%) or Schreiner (23%) to offer a clear impression.
Ford is also the preferred choice for Premier among 48% of Ontarians, with Crombie trailing far behind at 18%, followed by Stiles at 12% and Schreiner at 4%.
This 30-point advantage in Premier preference is another sign of Ford’s durable leadership brand—a mix of familiarity, comfort, and perceived competence that cuts across multiple voter segments.
PCs are Regionally and Demographically Dominant
The PCs hold commanding leads across all major regions:
- Toronto: 55% PC vs. 27% Liberal
- GTHA: 53% PC vs. 30% Liberal
- Southwestern Ontario: 54% PC vs. 21% Liberal
- Eastern Ontario: 46% PC vs. 30% Liberal
Demographically, the PC Party leads among:
- Men (57%) and women (48%)
- Voters aged 45 to 59 (58%) and 60+ (55%)
- Even among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the PCs garner 40%, ahead of the Liberals (36%) and NDP (14%)
These results underscore a key point: PC support is not just large, it is broad. The party maintains double-digit leads across almost every region, gender, and age group.
The Upshot
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs enter September in their strongest position since they were elected in 2018. With 53% of the vote, a 26-point lead over the Liberals, and an approval rating approaching 50%, Ford has not only maintained his edge, he’s expanded it.
Much of this strength comes comfort with Ford’s approach and focus on protecting Ontario from Trump, leading premiers and coordinating with Prime Minister Carney. With few major disruptions or scandals and a Premier who has embraced a more collaborative, steady style, the environment continues to favour the incumbent. His wide lead in preferred Premier and personal favourability adds to the sense of stability.
The Liberals, despite a comparable accessible voter pool, have stalled. Crombie’s personal numbers have dipped, and the party has now lost a point in each of the last two waves. With a leadership review convention approaching, the stakes are high, but the room to move the needle appears limited.
The NDP struggles under the weight of a weak national party brand.
Looking ahead, affordability, housing, and broader global uncertainty continue to shape the political climate. For now, that environment is playing to Doug Ford’s strengths.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,037 eligible voters in Ontario from
August 15 to 19, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.04%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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