Abacus Data Ontario Poll: LCBO strike seems to have had little impact on Ontario’s political opinions. PCs lead Liberals by 18.
July 27, 2024
From July 16 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explore impressions of party leaders, along with our usual trackers.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 18 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP closely behind at 19%, and the Greens at 7%.
PC vote share is up 3 points since last month, the highest point since our tracking started in November 2022.
The Ontario PCs also lead across the province. They are ahead by 14 points ahead in Toronto, 11 in the GTHA, 31 in southwestern Ontario, and 17 in eastern Ontario. The strong support in Toronto may be related to the focus and attention the Premier has personally given to the city.
Compared to our last survey, the Ontario PCs continue to gain ground in southwestern Ontario (rising by 4 points) and Toronto (rising by 4 points). For the Ontario NDPs support is slightly down across most regions and 5 points down in southwestern Ontario. Ontario Liberals hold steady.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across all demographic groups.
They are well ahead among men at 46% (2 points up) and among women at 39% (2 points up). The gap between the PCs and the Liberals, among women, as held from our last survey when support for the PCs increased 6 points.
This month, Ontario PCs’ also lead over the Liberals by 19 points, among those 60+ and by 22 points among those 45-to-59.
In a change from our last survey, among those 18-to-29, support for the PCs increased by 3 points, while support for the Liberals increased 8 points. This increase coincides with a change in support for the NDP, down 7 points.
Doug Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady and show little change. 34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (1 point down), he has net score of -9. This represents a 1-point increase since last month.
In contrast, impressions of opposition party leaders have shifted since our last survey. NDP leader Marit Stiles has a net score of -1 (it was +4 in the last survey), and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net score of +1 (it was +5 in the last survey). For Ontario Liberal Party leader, Bonnie Crombie, impressions decreased, with a net impression of -6 (4 points down).
Provincial Government Approval Holds Steady
Today, 33% of Ontarians say they approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government, down 1-point from last month while those disapproving is also down 1-point.
The LCBO Strike
In this survey, we also asked some questions about the LCBO strike.
Overall, 16% of Ontarians say they were following the strike closely with another 38% following it pretty closely. 5% of Ontarians didn’t know there was even a strike happening, including 14% of those under 30.
When asked how the strike makes them feel, 4% said they are very happy, 12% are pleased, 54% say they are indifferent to it, 24% are disappointed while 6% are angry.
Interestingly, current PC Party supporters were the most likely to be disappointed or angry, suggesting the PCs did benefit from the strike and seem to have successful framed it in a positive way for the government.
The Upshot
The strike at the LCBO strike has not had a noticeable impact on Premier Ford’s image or the Ontario PCs vote share. In fact, the PC vote share has increased to its highest point since our tracking started in November 2022. Demographically and regionally, the PCs are also well ahead.
Our data show that Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady. He’s not loved but not deeply unpopular either. Impressions over time show that Ford continues to do what a lot of other incumbents aren’t doing – holding a lead despite the economic situation.
Ford’s lead with everyone and everywhere also reflect a divided opposition. Since the election of Bonnue Crombie the Ontario Liberal vote share in unchanged and we’ve seen a slight worsening of Ms. Crombie’s personal image. The Ontario NDP remains in third place with many Ontarians having a neutral or no opinion of its leader Marit Stules.
All in, the 18-points lead shows that Ford Nation is holding together and that, at this point, he’s in the driver seat. However, there is risk in these numbers. The government’s approval rating is modest and the opposition leaders are not well known. These suggests uncertainty around how voters react if and when they are engaged during what many believe will be an early provincial election.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from July 16 to 21, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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