Abacus Data Poll: Post-Interest Rate Cut, Conservatives lead by 20 and Liberal vote share drops to lowest level since 2015.
June 16, 2024
From June 6 to 13, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with a deep dive into what concerns Canadians the most and the performance of political parties on these issues.
Note, all of the interviews in this survey were conducted after the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight interest rate.
Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 20 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3. About a month ago, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was 16-points. Today it is 20. At 22%, this is the lowest vote share we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead shrank compared to our last survey, but they continue to be ahead of the Liberals by 14 points. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12-points with the Conservatives in third at 22%.
Demographically, Liberal support among 18- to 29-year-olds is back down to where it was pre-budget, as the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals grows again. In May, the Conservatives led by 5 points. Today, the gap is 11-points. The NDP has been the main beneficiary of the drop in youth support for the Liberals. The Conservatives’ lead among Canadians aged 30 and over also grew by 6 points (28-point lead vs 22-point lead in our last survey). There is no gender gap in political support.
Although there has been a small shift voting intentions, there’s been little change in the size of each party’s accessible voter pools. Today, 52% are open to voting Conservative (up 1), 41% are open to voting NDP (unchanged) while 39% are open to voting Liberal (down 1).
No change in other key metrics
Beyond vote intention, there’s been little change in the perception of the country’s direction. An overwhelming majority (60%) believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 27% believe it’s in the right direction. This represents a change of only 1-point (26% in our last survey) among those who think things are headed in the right direction. We will monitor whether the changing interest rate landscape changes this view.
54% of Canadians want a change in government and think there is a good alternative, up 3 since last month while those who definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected is up 2 to 17%.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also static. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 26% have a positive view for a net score of -33. This is unchanged since last month pretty much, although Trudeau’s negatives are up 3 since early May.
Impressions of Pierre Poilievre are holding steady. Today 39% have a positive impression while 37% have a negative impression for a net score of +2.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are similarly consistent with 35% having a negative view and 33% having a positive view for a net score of -2.
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
This desire for change is partly reflected in the shifting perceptions of the most important issues facing Canada today. Concern for immigration has risen to 26% over the past few weeks, surpassing concerns for climate change and the environment.
Other issues hold steady. The top issue among Canadians continues to be the rising cost of living with 73%, and housing affordability and accessibility with 47%. Additionally, 44% consider healthcare a top issue, while 34% prioritize the economy. In total, 85% of Canadians put either the cost of living or housing as a top issue.
On these issues, when we ask those who prioritize a certain issue, which party is best able to handle the issue, the Conservatives dominate among those who care about immigration, the economy, crime, and the threat posed by China and Russia.
On the top 3 issues – the cost of living, housing, and healthcare – the Conservatives lead by 21 over the NDP on the cost of living (the Liberals are in third), the Conservatives lead by 11 on housing (the Liberals are in third) while the three parties are statistically tied on healthcare with the NDP at 25% and the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 22%.
Among those who rate the economy as a top issue, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by 33-points (50% to 17%). The Conservatives trail on only three other issues – beyond healthcare: inequality and poverty, indigenous reconciliation, and climate change. On climate change, the Liberals are tied with the Greens at 30% with the NDP at 12% and the Conservatives at 11%.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its overnight rate should be good political news for the Liberals. But so far, we see no evidence of improvement in public opinion for Prime Minister Trudeau or the Liberals. The Conservatives lead by 20, the Liberal vote share is the lowest we have seen measured since October 2015, and the general mood of the country has not changed in any meaningful way. We will have additional insights from this poll on some questions related to the interest rate cut out tomorrow. But for now, it’s clear that the Liberals find themselves in as worse an opinion environment today than they have at any point in their 9 years in office.
Perhaps most troubling is how people feel about issue ownership. In all top issues but climate change (now behind immigration), the Liberals trail behind the Conservatives and in some cases by a wide margin – on how people think is best able to handle the issue. This is ultimately reflected in an intensifying desire for change, at a time when it was already very high. Importantly, the perception that there is no alternative to the Liberals and their government has decreased, even among Liberal supporters.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 to 13, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
