Abacus Data Poll: Abacus Data Poll: Pre-Toronto-St. Paul’s Byelection, Conservatives lead by 19
June 28, 2024
From June 20 to 25, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,900 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey was conducted before the Toronto-St. Paul by-election.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we ask Canadians who would be better at dealing with key issues – Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre – along with our usual trackers.
Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 19 over the Liberals
There’s little change since our last survey. If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.
Every party’s vote share is consistent with the last wave, except for the Liberals, who are up 1.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead continues to shrink compared to our last surveys.
In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 10-points with the Conservatives in third at 23%.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all groups. However, there are two important changes since our last survey. Conservative support among 45-to-59 increased 7 points (49% vs 42%), as support for the Liberals and the NDP shrank slightly (1 point down and 4 points down respectively).
At the same time, support for the Conservatives among 30-to-44 went down 8 points (40% from 48% in the last survey), as the Liberals and the NDP are now tied with 23%.
We also find little difference in vote intention between men and women. The gender gap that was persistent prior to last month, continues to be non-existent today.
There hasn’t been a shift in vote intentions nor in the size of the party’s accessible voter pools. The Conservative pool remains 11-points larger than the Liberal one.
Beyond vote intention, there’s been little change in the perception of the country’s direction. An overwhelming majority (62%) believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 25% (down 2) believe it’s in the right direction.
The desire for change remains largely consistent with the last wave of research. 84% want change with 54% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also static. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, 1 point down from our last survey, and 26% have a positive view for a net score of -32.
Impressions of Pierre Poilievre continue to hold steady. Today 39% have a positive impression (unchanged from our last survey), while 36% have a negative impression (down 1) for a net score of +3.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are similarly consistent with 35% having a negative view, and a slight increase in positive impressions with 35% (up 2 points from our last survey), with a net score of 0. This is the first time since April that Mr. Singh’s net favourable.
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
Trudeau vs Poilievre on Policy
In this survey, we asked Canadians which leader, Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre, would be better to deal with several key issues or policy areas.
On nearly all issues, Pierre Poilievre leads Justin Trudeau. Poilievre leads by 25 points on “keeping taxes as low as possible”, by 18 points on “making life more affordable for you,” and by 14 points on “Building more housing and making it affordable.” Housing and the cost of living are the top two most cited issues by the public right now.
Also of note, more Canadians (44%) believe Poilievre would be better to deal with the potential of Donald Trump becoming president again than do Justin Trudeau (30%).
Trudeau leads Poilievre on only two items: “taking action to deal with climate change” and “making childcare more affordable.”
It is worth noting that about 1 in 4 Canadians are still unsure of who would better at dealing with all issues.
Among Liberal switchers (those who voted Liberal in 2021 but today are voting for another party or are undecided), Poilievre leads again in nearly all issues, except childcare and climate change, where Trudeau performs better than then he does on average. Poilievre and Trudeau are also tied in “Protecting and improving the healthcare system.”
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “We conducted this survey before the stunning upset in the Toronto-St. Paul byelection, a long-time Liberal stronghold. Toronto-St. Paul had not elected a Conservative MP since 1993. While still surprising, the results of the b-election are consistent with our survey results and while the outcome was surprising, the diminished Liberal margin should not have been. Last month we had the Liberal support dropped to 22%, the lowest since the Liberals were elected in 2015.
Perhaps most concerning in this poll is how Poilievre performs against Trudeau on the key policy areas. He’s well ahead on the cost of living, housing, and managing the economy. He also has a 14-point lead when it comes to who best Canadians think can deal with another possible President Trump.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from June 20 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.248%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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