Conservatives lead Liberals by 3. Liberals trail on cost of living and the economy
November 2, 2022
If an election were held today, 34% would vote for the Conservative Party, 31% for the Liberal Party, 18% for the NDP and 6% for the BQ.
The Conservatives are ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The Conservatives also have a small 3-point advantage in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals lead the BQ by 6 points while the Liberals are well ahead in Atlantic Canada.
The Conservatives have been numerically ahead of the Liberals since June in our tracking.
SATISFACTION WITH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT LARGELY UNCHANGED
Today, 35% approve, and 47% disapprove of the performance of the federal government, a two point drop in both measures since mid-September.
THE RISING COST OF LIVING IS THE TOP ISSUE
When asked to select the three most important issues facing Canada today, 3 in 4 selected the rising cost of living, followed by healthcare (47%), the economy (45%), housing affordability (36%), and climate change and the environment (19%).
When asked which party would do the best on the issues they selected, the Conservatives lead on the economy, lack of freedom in Canada, crime and public safety. The Liberals are slightly ahead of the Greens on climate change and the environment and ahead on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The NDP leads on housing affordability, inequality, and poverty.
On the top issue of the rising cost of living, the Conservatives have a substantial advantage over the other parties. 32% picked the Conservatives followed by the NDP at 16% and the Liberals at 15%.
The three main parties are within a few points of each other on healthcare while the NDP and Liberals are basically tied on indigenous reconciliation.
DESIRE FOR CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE END OF THE 2021 ELECTION
Today, 50% of Canadians definitely want to see a change in government while another 12% would like to see change but say it’s not that important to them. In contrast, 37% would like to see the Liberals re-elected but only 14% say they definitely want the Liberals re-elected.
Compared to the end of the 2021 federal election campaign, the intense desire for change is unchanged while those wanting to definitely see the Liberals re-elected is down 5-points.
FEELINGS ABOUT THE PM ARE STABLE
Public feelings about Prime Minister Trudeau have stabilized after a rise in negative feelings in the summer. The Prime Minister’s negatives stand at 49% – down from a peak of 51% – and up only a single point from last month.
JAGMEET SINGH’S APPROVAL RATING DOWN SLIGHTLY
For the last couple of years, Jagmeet Singh has been the most popular of the federal leaders, at one time his net rating was +21 (46% positive/25% negative). Since then, his positives have slid, and his negatives have risen. This latest result shows no further shift in line with the average since mid-summer.
PIERRE POILIEVRE: MANY STILL DON’T HAVE AN OPINION
Over the past month, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have not changed much. His negatives are up a single point to 35% while his positives are steady at 29%.
TRUDEAU vs. POILIEVRE
One of the things we are starting to track again is the preference for either Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Poilievre as Prime Minister. Today, 53% of Canadians would prefer Mr. Trudeau as Prime Minister while 47% would prefer Mr. Poilievre.
Regionally, Mr. Trudeau is the preferred choice of half or more in Ontario (52%), Quebec (66%), and Atlantic Canada (63%). Mr. Poilievre is the preferred choice by half or more in BC (52%), Alberta (57%), and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (61%).
Among current NDP supporters, Trudeau is preferred by a 4 to 1 margin (72% to 28%). Among BQ supporters, Trudeau is preferred 58% to 42% over Poilievre.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:“These numbers illustrate that the Liberals are vulnerable and also that support for the Conservatives is somewhat tentative. Neither party sees unqualified good or bad news in this public opinion environment. For the Liberals, trailing badly on economic issues is a major risk but one that hasn’t yet translated into a clear voting preference for the Conservatives.
Liberals will also note that public opinion about NDP Leader Singh is quite a bit weaker than it has been in recent years, and NDP voter preference for Trudeau over Poilievre is wide. But the numbers of voters restless for change is at a level that is hazardous for the Liberals, and Mr. Trudeau’s personal numbers are among the lowest he has seen. Conservatives see opportunity but voters aren’t flocking to them, Liberals see risk but not insurmountable challenges.”
According to David Coletto: “The political opinion environment has been fairly steady since the early summer. The Conservatives hold a slight national lead over the Liberals. Views of the Prime Minister and his government have stabilized while impressions of Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh have held steady.
As Minister Freeland gets set to release the Fall financial update, the Liberals should be worried about their standing on two key issues: the cost of living and the economy. For Canadians who care about those issues, the Liberals trail the Conservatives quite badly on which party people think will do the best job.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 22 to 26, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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