Federal vs Provincial Governments: Which is doing a better job?
July 16, 2024
Yesterday, Canada’s premiers gathered in Nova Scotia for Council of the Federation meeting. In anticipation of this event, we asked some new questions on our latest national omnibus survey exploring perceptions about which level of government – federal or provincial – Canadians believe is best able to handle several high-profile issues.
We also explored the idea of “change” asking respondents if they would vote to re-elect or change the federal government, their provincial government, and their mayor.
Here’s what we found:
Which Level of Government is doing a Better Job at…?
Canadians have mixed views on which level of government is doing a better job on the items we tested.
The provincial government is, on average, seen as doing a better job by more people when it comes to ‘ensuring public safety and security” (43% to 27%), “helping to build as many new homes as possible” (40% to 27%), “helping you manage the cost of living” (34% to 29%), and “keeping your taxes as low as possible” (34% to 29%).
In contrast, the federal government is seen as doing a better job at “growing the economy” (37% to 33%) and “addressing climate change” (45% to 22%).
About 1 in 3 Canadians were unsure which level of government was doing a better job on all the items tested.
Looking at the regional results gives us a better sense of how provincial governments are doing vis-a-vis the federal government. There are some noteworthy differences.
Except for addressing climate change, Albertans are more likely to believe their provincial government is doing a better job than the federal government on all of the areas we tested. Albertans are the only subpopulation to believe their provincial government is doing a better job than the federal government at growing the economy (49% to 27%), Every other regional population believes the federal government is doing better than their provincial government.
On climate change, the federal government leads by 26-points in Atlantic Canada, 22-points in Quebec, 30-points in Ontario, 14-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 6-points in Alberta, and 6-points in BC over the provincial government.
On the cost of living, the top issue for most Canadians at the moment, the provincial government leads by 12-points in BC, 28-points in Alberta, 8-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 2-points in Ontario. In Quebec, the federal government is ahead by 3-points on the issue, and in Atlantic Canada, the two levels of government are basically tied.
Following this question, we asked Canadians: “The next time you have a chance to vote in a provincial municipal, or federal election, would you vote to re-elect or change the government you have?”
This is the first time we’ve asked this question so we don’t have any comparisons from earlier research, but the results are telling: The desire for change at the federal level is far higher than either the provincial or municipal one.
61% of Canadians say they will vote to change the government the next time they vote in a federal election compared with 46% at the provincial level and 36% at the municipal level.
The regional picture is most interesting.
When it comes to the federal government, majorities in every region of the country would vote to change the federal government from a high of 75% in Alberta, to 62% in Ontario, 60% in BC, to a low of 52% in Atlantic Canada and Quebec.
Provincially or regionally, a plurality of Canadians in every region, except in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, would vote to change their provincial government but there is significant variation across the country.
In BC, 37% would vote to re-elect the Eby NDP government while 41% would vote for change. In Alberta, 41% would vote to re-elect Danielle Smith’s UCP while 43% would vote for change. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 40% would vote to re-elect their provincial government while 34% would vote for change. The re-elect number in Manitoba is notably higher in Manitoba than Saskatchewan (45% vs. 34%).
In Ontario, 49% are voting for change next time there’s a provincial election while 29% would vote for change. The results are similar in Quebec, 50% voting for change while 28% would vote to re-elect Legault’s CAQ government.
In Atlantic Canada, 44% are voting for change while 33% are voting to re-elect the incumbent. Obviously, there is likely some variation across the region, but smaller sample sizes makes a comparison difficult but qualitatively, the desire for change seems higher in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador than it does in Nova Scotia or PEI.
In terms of municipal change (specifically a mayor), results are fairly consistent regionally. About a third or more are not sure how they will vote with change being higher in Alberta, BC, and Ontario.
In Toronto (one of the few cities we have large enough sample sizes), 25% would vote to re-elect Olivia Chow while 45% would vote for change. 31% are unsure.
In the GTHA, 32% would vote to re-elect their mayors while 37% would vote for change.
In Eastern Ontario (mostly Ottawa), 36% would vote to re-elect their mayor while 22% would vote for change. 43% are unsure.
In Montreal, 28% would vote to re-elect Valerie Plante while 51% would vote for change.
In the Greater Vancouver region, 23% would vote to re-elect their mayor while 37% would vote for change. 40% in the GVA are unsure how they would vote.
So what does this all mean?
Although the federal government’s approval rating is close to the lowest it’s been since the Trudeau government was elected in 2015, it’s wrong to assume that people believe their provincial government is doing better on several policy areas.
This poll shows that there isn’t a wide gap on many items (especially the cost of living). The provinces have an edge on public safety and housing while the feds have a big advantage on climate change and a noteworthy edge on managing the economy. But the results are more likely indicative of a generally dissatisfaction with all levels of government at the moment.
But there is also no denying just how challenging the environment is for the federal Liberals. The change vs. re-elect question provides ample evidence to suggest that the federal Liberals are in a much weaker position than any provincial government at the moment.
Six in ten Canadians would vote to change the federal government. That’s at least 9-points higher than any provincial government – including those in Quebec and Ontario.
For the provinces facing provincial elections this fall – BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick – the results suggest that the incumbents there have a clear shot at being re-elected.
David Eby’s NDP and Scott Moe’s Sask Party are likely in the better positions when compared with Blaine Higgs’ NB PCs. But none of them should assume they are safe given the mood of the country and the impact that the public’s scarcity mindset can mean for incumbents.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,989 Canadian adults from July 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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