Post budget, Liberals lead by 7 nationally
April 27, 2021
Don’t miss David’s interview with Biden’s chief pollster John Anzalone on inFocus with David Coletto
We just completed a national survey of 2,201 Canadian adults (from April 20 to 25, 2021).
Here’s what the survey found:
CURRENT VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 36% of the vote, the Conservatives 29%, the NDP 17%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ at 30% in Quebec. The Liberals are down 3, while the other parties are all within the margin from our previous few polls.
In BC, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 31%, 8 points ahead of the NDP, and the Conservatives continue to hold wide leads in the Prairies. The Liberals have a 13-point lead in Ontario, a 6-point lead over the BQ in Quebec, and a 25-point lead in Atlantic Canada.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 37% and finds negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -5.
Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 34%, for a net score of -14.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 33% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net +7.
Annamie Paul enjoys a positive impression among 16% and finds negative impressions among 17% for a net -1.
Yves Francois Blanchet, enjoys a +10 net rating in Quebec, which compares to a +5 for Justin Trudeau, -17 for Erin O’Toole, and -3 for Jagmeet Singh and +1 Annamie Paul.
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
Asked which of the national party leaders they would prefer to see as Prime Minister, 31% picked Justin Trudeau, with Erin O’Toole (18%) and Jagmeet Singh (17%) following. 3% picked Ms. Paul and the same number preferred Maxime Bernier.
If forced to choose between Trudeau and O’Toole, most would choose Trudeau (60%) over O’Toole (40%). Perhaps most noteworthy is that Trudeau would be the preference of 62% of BQ voters, 55% of Green Party voters, 76% of NDP voters, and 64% of the undecided.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Today, 41% approve of the performance of the federal government, and 42% disapprove. There has been no clear trend on this indicator for several months.
DESIRE FOR CHANGE
Today, 39% of voters say it’s definitely time for a change in government. Another 27% say “it would be good to have change but doesn’t matter to me that much”. This total of 66% who would prefer to see a change is 3 points less than at the time of the last election, and the intensity of the desire for change is 12 points less.
In total, 34% say they prefer the Liberals to be re-elected, 3-points higher than at the end of the 2019 election campaign.
For the 27% “soft change voters, 71% have a preference for Trudeau over O’Toole if the election comes down to a question of which of these two you’d prefer to be PM. For the 15% of voters who are “soft re-elect”, 95% prefer Trudeau over O’Toole.
Among the 39% who are “hard change” voters, 20% would prefer Trudeau and 80% O’Toole, reflecting the fact that a notable minority of these voters are more progressive than conservative in their orientation.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “As long as the pandemic is with us, politics will not be a preoccupation for most people. The Liberals and Conservatives have both launched policy initiatives but in neither case do these seem to have materially affected the mood of the country. As things currently stand, the Liberals have a decided advantage politically, which isn’t the same as unshakeable, enthusiastic support, but should be viewed as more tentative and subject to change. The message for Conservative leader O’Toole in these numbers continues to be: look for ways to better connect with the mood of worried and hopeful voters without sounding like you are preoccupied with gaining political advantage over your opponents, or prosecuting issues the public sees as marginal given the importance of the pandemic.”
According to David Coletto: “Post-budget, we don’t see much movement in any of the key political tracking questions. The Liberals continue to hold a sizeable lead over the Conservatives built on strength in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.”
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,201 Canadian adults from April 20 to 25, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
