Abacus Data Poll: Federal Liberals Gain a Bit of Ground Post-Budget, But Stalemate Holds

• Canadian Politics

David Coletto

November 30, 2025

Between November 20 and 27, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,421 Canadian adults to assess the post-budget political landscape. The survey was conducted just days after the Carney government passed its budget and survived a confidence vote.

The results suggest that while the budget slightly lifted Liberal support and improved impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, it has not fundamentally altered the dynamics of the race. Canadians continue to express unease about the direction of the country, intense focus on economic anxiety, and an electorate that remains firmly divided between the Liberals and Conservatives. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives retain a strong and consistent base, but there is little evidence they are expanding beyond it.

If the goal of the budget was to shift momentum or reset the political narrative, that has not yet materialized. What we’re seeing is more a modest repositioning than a political turning point.

Public Mood: A Slight Uptick, But Pessimism Still Dominates

This wave of polling shows a modest increase in optimism about the country’s direction. Thirty-seven percent of Canadians now believe the country is headed in the right direction, up from 31 percent in early November. This is the highest score on this metric since spring and appears to reflect a mild but noteworthy response to the budget and accompanying federal messaging.

However, the overall mood remains cautious. Nearly half (48%) still believe Canada is on the wrong track, and 15% are unsure. These are not figures that suggest a broadly confident electorate. Rather, they reveal an incremental improvement among voters who may be reassessing the government but are not yet convinced.

Notably, views of the broader global context remain deeply negative. Only 15% of Canadians believe the world is headed in the right direction, and just 13% say the same of the United States. These numbers have been largely unchanged for the past year and continue to frame a context of global instability in which domestic politics unfold.

Regional Variations in Mood

Optimism is highest in Ontario (41%) and Atlantic Canada (41%), and lowest in Alberta (26%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%). In Quebec, 34% say the country is headed in the right direction — a middle-of-the-pack result, but a decline from the early days of the Carney government.

Partisanship plays a major role. Fully 62% of Liberal supporters believe the country is headed in the right direction, compared to just 19% of Conservatives.

Top Issues: Affordability Continues to Define the Political Agenda

The rising cost of living continues to eclipse all other issues in terms of public concern. Sixty-four percent of Canadians say it is one of their top three concerns, down slightly from 66% earlier in the month but still far above any other issue. The economy (40%) and healthcare (35%) round out the top three, unchanged from the previous wave.

Concern about housing affordability has ticked up slightly to 34%. Immigration (26%) remains near its high point for the year, reflecting the intensifying debate around housing pressure and labour market needs. Meanwhile, concern about Donald Trump and his administration has fallen modestly to 32%, though it remains higher than other issues crime (17%) or climate change (13%).

Government Approval: Budget Offers Modest Relief

After months of softening numbers, approval of the Carney government has edged upward. Today, 48% of Canadians approve of the federal government’s performance, up four points from earlier this month just after the budget was tabled. Disapproval has declined to 32%.

The result is a net approval rating of +16, the strongest showing for the Carney government in several months and a possible signal that the budget resonated with at least some segments of the public.

Leader Impressions: Carney’s Edge Reasserts Itself

Mark Carney’s personal ratings have improved modestly. Forty-five percent of Canadians now view him positively, while 31% view him negatively, giving him a net favourability of +14.

Pierre Poilievre’s net favourability stands at -3, a slight improvement from earlier this month. Thirty nine percent of Canadians view him positively, while 42% view him negatively.

Demographic Divides

Among women, Carney has a net +14 rating, compared to Poilievre’s -9.

Among men, the leaders are closer, but Carney still leads (+15 vs. Poilievre’s +3).

Older voters (60+) is view Carney far more favourably than Poilievre (+27 vs. -27), while Millennials (30 to 44) are slightly more favourable to Poilievre (+6 vs. +3)

Would Canadians Vote to Keep or Remove Poilievre as Conservative Leader?

Among Conservative voters, Pierre Poilievre’s leadership remains strongly supported. Sixty-four percent of current Conservative supporters say they would vote to keep him as leader (75% among decided CPC voters), compared to just 22 percent who would vote to remove him. This 42-point margin suggests that Poilievre largely retains the confidence of his party’s base, although not universally.
It is worth noting that we do not track this question and so it’s likely that there has always been a faction of the Conservative voter coalition would like to see another leader.  

That internal backing is critical as the Poilievre prepares for the party convention in January. The leadership numbers also indicate that frustration with Poilievre is largely external to the Conservative coalition. Among Liberal supporters, two-thirds (66 percent) say they would remove him, while a slim majority of NDP voters (51 percent) say the same. This reinforces the polarization surrounding his leadership, but it also underscores his staying power within the Conservative tent.

Carney vs. Poilievre: Personal Contrast without Political Impact — Yet

This wave included an in-depth set of questions comparing Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre on personality, trust, motivation, and competence. Across nearly every measure, Carney holds an advantage at times a narrow one, and in other cases, a striking lead.

Personality and Policy

When Canadians assess Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, most attention tends to focus on those who either like or dislike both the leader’s personality and ideas. But a closer look at the “middle” groups,  those who express mixed views, reveals key contrasts in how each leader is perceived and where their vulnerabilities lie.

Carney’s challenge lies more in the realm of policy alignment, not likability. Thirteen percent of Canadians say they like his personality but dislike his ideas. That figure is nearly double the number who say the same about Poilievre (7%). These voters are open to Carney’s personal style and leadership tone but are not yet persuaded that his policy approach reflects their values or priorities.

Poilievre, by contrast, has the inverse challenge. Thirteen percent of Canadians say they like his ideas but dislike his personality. This is the same group that may agree with his positions on issues such as taxation, housing, or immigration, but struggle with his tone, style, or approach to politics more broadly. For these voters, it is not what he says that creates resistance, but how he says it.

These two groups, while not large, represent the pivot points in the electorate. They are voters who are engaged enough to form nuanced opinions but not yet locked in to either camp.

The relative stability of these numbers over time also matters, especially for Poilievre. When we compare today with how people felt at the beginning of the 2025 election, we find far more people know about Carney and the distribution of views is similar to what it was then. We find the same for Poilievre. Despite a narrative about views about him becoming more negative, the distinction between policy and personality remain the same. Back in March, 40 percent of Canadians said they didn’t like either his ideas or his personality. That’s down by two points today to 38%. Poilievre has been a polarizing figure for a while now.

For Poilievre specifically, while almost all Conservative voters say they like something about him, 1 in 5 say they like his ideas but not his personality.

Sixty-three percent say they like both his personality and his ideas, and only 5 percent say they dislike both, a remarkably low figure in a political environment marked by high polarization.

But that 1 in 5 who say they like his ideas but not his personality is worth reflecting on.

This is a larger share than any other subgroup and reflects a consistent theme in Poilievre’s profile: his communication style and tone remain polarizing, even among those who agree with him on a policy front.

Trust and Leadership Attributes

We also asked people to what extent they trust Carney and Poilievre on five core attributes. In every case, Carney outperforms Poilievre but the gap is not that large on most.

Representing Canada globally: Carney (5.8/10), Poilievre (4.7)

Making good decisions in a crisis: Carney (5.5), Poilievre (4.7)

Protecting the economy long-term: Carney (5.4), Poilievre (4.9)

Telling the truth even when unpopular: Carney (5.3), Poilievre (4.8)

Standing up for people like you: Carney (5.0), Poilievre (4.7)

Motivations Matter

When asked what motivates each leader, 28% say Carney is driven by a “sense of duty to Canada,” compared to 16% for Poilievre. By contrast, 35% believe Poilievre is driven by “ambition for personal power,” compared to 22% who say the same of Carney.

Poilievre is more likely to be seen as working to help “people like me” 13% versus 6% for Carney.

Symbolic Comparison

When forced to choose between the two on a series of metaphorical tasks — from captaining a ship through a storm to hosting a party — Carney is seen as the stronger leader across most serious domains, while Poilievre performs better on symbolic competence tests like “putting up a shelf” or “standing up to a bully.”

Among voters who are open to both the Liberal and Conservative parties (18% of the electorate), Mark Carney holds a clear and consistent edge over Pierre Poilievre across nearly every comparative leadership scenario tested.

These head-to-head evaluations offer a unique lens into how swing or persuadable voters judge the two leaders beyond partisan affiliation. Carney is seen as significantly more capable when it comes to serious leadership tasks. He leads Poilievre by 42 points on “finding common ground to solve a dispute,” 24 points on “representing you in a conflict with a powerful company,” and 19 points on “captaining a ship through a rough storm.” Even on the kitchen-table issue of “helping you manage your household expenses,” Carney holds a 17-point advantage.

The only scenario where Poilievre edges out Carney is on “standing up to a bully,” where he holds a narrow one-point lead. Whether this is because of criticism of Carney’s approach to dealing with Trump has weakened perceptions on him around strength is unclear  but could be a factor.

These findings suggest that, among voters who could be persuaded to support either party, Carney is perceived as the steadier, more collaborative, and more trustworthy figure, a leader better suited to navigate uncertainty and complexity. Poilievre performs relatively better on symbolic or hands-on scenarios like “putting out a kitchen fire” or “putting up a shelf,” but even there, he does not outperform Carney decisively. The data reinforces a broader trend: swing voters may appreciate Poilievre’s assertiveness, but they appear to trust Carney more to handle high-stakes challenges.

Vote Intention: Deadlocked Again

If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 41% of the vote, compared to 40% for the Conservatives. This reflects a slight one-point shift in favour of the Liberals and a mirror one-point drop for the Conservatives compared to November 6.

Support for the NDP (8%), Bloc Québécois (7%), and Greens (2%) remains unchanged. Among decided voters who are most committed, the Liberals hold a 2-point edge (42% to 40%).

The data suggest a very stable race with minimal movement among base voters. There has been no surge, no swing, and no clear trend emerging since the start of the fall.

Accessible Voter Pools: Evenly Matched, Still Polarized

The size of each party’s accessible voter universe remains relatively unchanged. Today, 55% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, while 51% say the same for the Conservatives. The NDP sits at 34% nationally.

Regional and Demographic Vote Intention:

Ontario: Liberals 46%, Conservatives 43%

Quebec: Liberals 41%, Bloc 30%, Conservatives 22%

Alberta: Conservatives 61%, Liberals 28%

Atlantic Canada: Liberals 48%, Conservatives 42%

British Columbia: Liberals 39%, Conservatives 40%, NDP 16%

By Age

18 to 29: Liberals 39%, Conservatives 38%

30 to 44: Conservatives lead 46% to 34%

45 to 59: Conservatives lead 46% to 41%

60 and over: Liberals lead 49% to 34%

Vote Intention and the Issues

The relationship between top issues and vote intention remains one of the most revealing lenses for understanding the current political deadlock. Among Canadians who rank the cost of living as one of their top three concerns — a group that includes nearly two-thirds of the electorate — the Conservatives hold a narrow advantage, with 43 percent saying they would vote Conservative compared to 40 percent for the Liberals. On the surface, this 3-point edge may seem modest, but its significance lies in how central this issue has become. The cost of living dominates every other concern and acts as the primary filter through which voters assess party performance. That the Liberals remain competitive here, despite months of economic anxiety, suggests the issue has not yet translated into a decisive ballot-box shift. But the longer it remains unresolved, the more likely it is to benefit the party with the edge on this issue.

On the broader economy, the Conservative advantage grows to five points (45 to 40), reinforcing the party’s brand strength on the issue among those who care about it.

However, the Liberals have a commanding lead on healthcare voters, where they outperform the Conservatives by 14 points (47 to 33), and an even larger lead among those who see Trump as a top 3 issue, where Liberal support (56 percent) more than doubles that of the Conservatives (26 percent). This may reflect deeper concerns among Liberal-leaning voters about Donald Trump and what it means for Canada.

Housing, the fourth most cited concern, is the only top-tier issue where the parties are tied, with both the Liberals and Conservatives at 39 percent. This parity points to a battleground in flux. Neither party has yet emerged as the dominant force on the housing file.

Beyond the top five, the issues of immigration and crime show substantial Conservative leads. Among those who identify immigration as a top issue, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a staggering 34 points (60 to 26). On crime and public safety, the gap is nearly as wide, at 32 points (59 to 27). These numbers are not just partisan preferences. They indicate deep alignment between Conservative messaging and the values or concerns of voters who prioritize these topics. The scale of these leads also means that if immigration and crime grow in salience — either through media coverage or campaign focus — they have the potential to shift the national narrative in the Conservatives’ favour.

Overall, the data shows an electorate divided less by ideology but by what voters believe the most pressing issues are in the moment. Where Trump, healthcare, or climate change dominate, the Liberals are well ahead. Where the frame shifts to immigration or public safety, the Conservatives benefit. Politics is not just about persuading voters on issues, it is about defining what the issues are.

The Upshot:

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “This wave of data reinforces what we have been observing for much of the fall. The fundamentals of the federal political landscape remain remarkably stable, despite some movement around the edges. The Carney government has seen a modest post-budget rebound in approval and leader impressions, but that shift has yet to translate into a wider lead in vote intention.

There are a few key takeaways from this survey. First, the cost of living continues to be the dominant lens through which Canadians evaluate politics and policy. That issue alone defines the political battleground. The budget may have helped the Liberals regain some footing, but the onus remains on the government to prove that it can deliver material, visible improvements in affordability. Voters appear willing to give the government a second look, but not a free pass.

Second, we continue to see a significant gap between how Canadians perceive Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. On nearly every metric we tested — personality, trust, motivation, and leadership qualities — Carney comes out ahead. Canadians are more likely to believe he tells the truth, stands up for people like them, and makes good decisions in a crisis. He is more trusted to represent the country internationally and is more likely to be seen as motivated by a sense of duty. Poilievre, on the other hand, continues to be viewed by a plurality as driven more by ambition than public service.

But here is what is most striking. Carney’s personal advantage is not yet reshaping voter behaviour. Despite stronger approval ratings, more favourable impressions, and higher levels of trust, the Liberal vote share has only increased slightly. The race remains neck and neck. This speaks to a deeper political inertia in the electorate. Nothing has changed from the near deadlocked April election.

The third key dynamic is polarization. Voter universes for the Liberals and Conservatives are large and nearly identical in size, but they are also more rigid. Very few voters are moving between the two camps. Instead, each party is holding its base while fighting to win over a relatively small group of persuadable voters. Many of these voters are anxious, skeptical, and not deeply engaged.

Regional dynamics continue to follow familiar patterns. The Liberals remain strong in Ontario and Quebec. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and the Prairies. British Columbia and Atlantic Canada remain competitive. Demographic divides persist, with the Liberals holding an edge among older Canadians and university-educated voters. The Conservatives lead among working-aged men and those without post-secondary education.

What we are left with is a political environment that is deeply competitive but not particularly volatile. Canadians are not embracing a new direction, but they also have not decisively turned away from the current government. The electorate is cautious, pragmatic, and watching closely, especially on affordability. Unless one party can break through on that defining issue, the deadlock will persist.

The coming weeks and months will reveal whether the modest bump for the Liberals after the budget is the start of a longer-term shift or a temporary stabilization.”

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Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,421 Canadian adults from November 20 to 27, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements, which can be found here:
https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

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