New Year, Same Deadlock: Liberals and Conservatives Tied as Trump Re-Emerges and Voters Stay Cautious
Between January 9 and 14, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,850 Canadian adults, offering our first snapshot of the federal political landscape in the new year.
This wave captures a political environment that looks familiar on the surface, but shows subtle shifts underneath. Vote intention remains deadlocked between the Liberals and Conservatives, but leader impressions are moving in different directions. Pierre Poilievre’s negative impressions have increased, while Mark Carney’s remain more stable. At the same time, the Liberals continue to draw from a larger pool of accessible voters, even as the Conservatives maintain a highly efficient and motivated base.
The issue environment has also shifted since the end of 2025. Donald Trump has surged back to the top of the issue agenda, following renewed global instability, including developments in Venezuela and Trump’s rhetoric toward Greenland and Iran. For many Canadians, the external environment feels less distant and more directly connected to domestic economic and security concerns.
Taken together, the findings point to a political landscape that remains competitive, divided, and unsettled as 2026 begins.
Mood: Little Change, Little Relief
Thirty five percent of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while 46 percent say it is on the wrong track. The remainder are unsure.
Views of the broader world are far more negative. Just 11 percent believe the world is headed in the right direction, and only 12 percent say the same about the United States. These views are broadly shared across regions and age groups.
Regionally, optimism about Canada’s direction is highest in Atlantic Canada and British Columbia, and lowest in Quebec. The partisan divide remains pronounced, with Liberal supporters far more likely than Conservative supporters to say the country is moving in the right direction.
Economic Perceptions: Recession Expectations Widely Held
Nearly half of Canadians, 45 percent, believe Canada is currently in a recession. Thirty nine percent believe it is not, and 17 percent are unsure.
These perceptions are consistent across most regions but there are strong correlations between age and perceptions. Younger Canadians are more likely to think Canada is a recession compared with older Canadians. There is also a strong political relationship in perceptions.
Top Priorities: Affordability First, Trump Close Behind
The rising cost of living remains the most frequently selected federal priority, chosen by 60 percent of Canadians.
The economy follows at 42 percent, with healthcare close behind at 37 percent.
Donald Trump and his administration now rank among the top tier of concerns, selected by 35 percent of respondents. Housing affordability and accessibility follows at 31 percent, while immigration is cited by 23 percent.
Other priorities include job security and unemployment, crime and public safety, climate change and the environment, and inequality and poverty. Concerns about global security threats, including China and Russia, remain lower on the list, as do issues related to Indigenous reconciliation and election interference.
Government Approval: Holding Steady
Approval of the federal government stands at 47 percent, while 34 percent disapprove, steady from the end of 2025.
Leader Impressions: Diverging Trajectories
Mark Carney remains net positive, with more Canadians holding a favourable than unfavourable view of him. His +13 net score is a slight improvement from the middle of December. He has a net favourable impression in every region of the country except in Alberta and across all demographic groups. Among Liberal voters, his net favourable is +80.
Pierre Poilievre remains net negative (-12), and this wave records an increase in his negative impressions to the highest level since we started tracking. Those with a favourable impression are down 4 while those with a negative impression are up 5. Poilievre is viewed most negatively among Baby Boomers, in Quebec, and among women. He’s viewed more favourable among those under 30 and in the Prairies. Among Conservative voters, his net favourable is +64.
Keep Poilievre and Carney as Party Leader? A direct comparison
When asked whether they would vote to remove Mark Carney as Liberal leader or Pierre Poilievre as Conservative leader, using identical question wording to allow for a direct comparison, the results show important differences beneath surface similarities.
Among their own supporters, both leaders benefit from supermajority backing. Most Liberals say they would vote to keep Carney, and most Conservatives say they would vote to keep Poilievre. However, the level of support is far more decisive for Carney. Liberal support for his leadership is overwhelming, with very little appetite for change.
Poilievre’s position is less secure. While a clear majority of Conservative supporters would keep him, a larger minority would vote to remove him, and uncertainty is higher.
Vote Intention: Still Locked
If an election were held today, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied nationally.
The NDP trails well behind, followed by the Bloc Québécois, the Greens, and the People’s Party.
Among committed voters, the race remains extremely close, with only marginal differences between the two leading parties.
Regional and Demographic Patterns Remain Intact
Regionally, the Liberals continue to lead in Atlantic Canada and a hold narrow advantage in Quebec. Ontario is very competitive while the Conservatives dominate in Alberta and the Prairies. British Columbia remains competitive.
Age continues to be one of the strongest dividing lines. Younger Canadians lean Conservative while the Liberals continue to do well among those 60 and over.
Liberals lead by 5 among women while the Conservatives lead by 6 among men.
Education also continues to be a key driver of vote intention. Conservatives lead among those with high school or college educations while the Liberals lead by a wide margin among those with a university degree.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:
“As 2026 begins, the topline numbers tell a familiar story, but the underlying dynamics are worth watching closely. The race remains deadlocked, public mood remains cautious, and Canadians continue to feel under pressure economically and uncertain about the global environment.
What has changed is the context. Donald Trump has re-emerged as a top tier issue, reflecting how global instability and U.S. politics are increasingly viewed through a domestic lens. At the same time, Pierre Poilievre’s negatives have risen, while Mark Carney continues to benefit from a broader pool of accessible voters, even if that has not yet produced a clear lead.
This is a competitive but fragile equilibrium. The electorate is paying attention and weighing risks at home and abroad. The constant stream of global events and the perceived fragility of the Canadian economy continues to shape the broader Canadian public opinion landscape.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,850 Canadians from January 9 to 14, 2026. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This poll was paid for by Abacus Data.
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