Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs hit 50% in vote intention; lead Liberals by 22.
July 24, 2025
A few months removed from a commanding re-election, Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs continue to find themselves continuing to hold high levels of public support and a big lead over a divided opposition. With no major controversies consuming Queen’s Park, a relatively quiet opposition, and a public square still focused more on the potential impact of Trump’s policies, the opinion environment remains favourable to the provincial government.
Vote Intention: PC Party Tops 50%
If a provincial election were held today, 50% of committed voters say they would cast their ballot for the Progressive Conservatives. That’s up one point since our last survey in early June and marks the party’s highest vote share since the start of 2024. The Liberals remain at 28%, unchanged from last month, while the NDP has slipped further to 13%, down a point. The Greens now sit at 6% (+1), while other parties attract 3% of the vote.
Approval Holding at High Levels
Doug Ford’s approval ratings remain strong and stable. As of mid-July, 44% of Ontarians approve of the job he and his government are doing, unchanged since our last wave. Disapproval has edged up slightly to 32% (+1), but the government still holds a +12 net rating, among the highest seen in the past two years.
The trendline confirms it: since late 2023, the Ford government has been on a slow but steady upward climb. From a low point in early 2024, approval ratings recovered through the spring and peaked just before the provincial election. Today, they remain near those highs, suggesting a Premier still very much in control of his narrative.
Ford’s Personal Brand Continues to Strengthen
The Premier’s personal numbers are even more telling. Today, 46% of Ontarians say they have a positive impression of Doug Ford, compared to 33% who view him negatively, a net +13 rating, and the highest of any provincial leader by a wide margin.
By contrast, Bonnie Crombie’s impressions are evenly split (33% positive, 32% negative), resulting in a net of just +1. Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner both have net impressions of +4, but nearly one in five voters say they don’t know enough about either to offer an opinion.
Among all voters, Ford is also the top choice for Premier, with 46% selecting him, more than double the number who choose Crombie (20%) or Stiles (12%). That advantage extends across nearly every region, age group, and gender category.
Broad and Stable Coalition
The PC coalition remains impressively wide. Regionally, they lead by double digits across the board:
GTHA: 54% PC vs. 30% Liberal
Toronto: 49% PC vs. 32% Liberal
Southwestern Ontario: 54% PC vs. 23% Liberal
Eastern Ontario: 43% PC vs. 29% Liberal.
Demographically, the PCs lead among both men (53%) and women (48%), and especially among Ontarians aged 45 to 59, where they hold 59% support. Among voters aged 60 and over, they lead with 53%, and even among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the party garners 42%—still ahead of the Liberals at 31% and Greens at 10%.
This is a government whose support reaches across regional and generational lines, anchored by perceptions of stability and confidence at a time of uncertainty created by US President Donald Trump.
The Opposition Faces Familiar Challenges
While Ford’s numbers have remained strong, the opposition continues to struggle with definition and visibility.
Bonnie Crombie’s numbers have improved modestly over the last few months, but she remains a polarizing figure with a net impression of just +1. Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner remain liked by those who know them but largely unknown to most voters. Neither the NDP nor the Greens are making meaningful gains.
That being said, the Ontario Liberals have as large a pool of accessible voters as the PCs. 54% of voters say they would consider voting Liberal, one point ahead of the PCs at 53%. The NDP’s accessible voter pool sits at 40%, and the Greens trail at 30%. There is potential for the Ontario Liberals to expand their support.
Ford the Collaborator?
Part of Ford’s sustained appeal appears to be his shifting political style. The “buck-a-beer” populism of earlier terms has been replaced by a more pragmatic, centrist governance model that seems well-attuned to the mood of the moment. In a province (and country) focused on responding to economic uncertainty, affordability, and geopolitical friction, Ford’s leadership feels, at least to many, grounded, less partisan, and more functional.
He’s also benefited from an increasingly cooperative dynamic with the Carney-led federal government, particularly on economic growth and dealing with the United States. Ford’s willingness to be a team player on the national stage, without losing his brand, continues to reinforce a positive image among many Ontarians.
The Upshot
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs are heading into late summer in a commanding position. With 50% of committed support, a wide lead over their rivals, and consistently strong personal numbers, the Premier appears to have consolidated both power and public confidence, at a time when many Ontarians are looking for stability and economic focus.
The opposition, by contrast, remains fragmented and low-profile. The Ontario Liberal Party, while still the main alternative in vote share, has not gained ground. However, Bonnie Crombie’s personal numbers have improved over the last two months, and the party’s accessible voter pool is equal to that of the PCs. With a party convention looming in September, where Crombie will face a formal leadership review, the pressure to redefine the Liberal brand and solidify support is only growing. But the environment is one the Liberals will have a hard time shaping themselves and there’s likely little Crombie can to do change fortunes right now. It’s about building and being ready to respond in the future if the mood and circumstances change.
The NDP and Greens, meanwhile, continue to struggle with visibility. Both leaders remain modestly liked, but their parties are not yet competitive across key regions or age groups.
At a broader level, voters remain focused on affordability, inflation, and Canada’s role in a volatile global landscape. In that context, the Ford government’s measured, pragmatic approach continues to resonate. For now, the political environment remains calm, and that calm continues to benefit the Premier.
But as always, conditions can change. Economic pressure points remain. Public patience on housing is not unlimited. And the Liberal convention in September could reshape the conversation, either by clarifying Crombie’s mandate or reopening questions about who should lead the Liberals.
For now, though, the PCs are in a dominant position, and Doug Ford shows every sign of making the most of it.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from July 10 to 15, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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