Ontario PCs Still Lead by Wide Margin but Ontario NDP Rise Four in a Month
November 10, 2025
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a strong lead over their political rivals in Ontario. But our latest survey finds that while the Premier remains dominant, there are signs that some voters are beginning to question whether the government is making meaningful progress on key issues.
This survey was conducted just before the Ontario government released its fall economic statement.
The Progressive Conservatives are holding steady at 51% among committed voters. The Liberals are at 23%, down two points since our last survey in October. The NDP sees a four-point bump to 19%, their highest share in several months. The Green Party drops to 3%. Another 4% would vote for other parties.
Voter Pools Suggest PCs Have Slight Edge in Consideration
More than half of voters say they would consider voting PC. This is slightly higher than the Liberals at 50%. Four in ten would consider the NDP. Fewer than 3 in 10 would consider the Green Party.
This shows that while Ford’s party leads comfortably among committed voters, the underlying pools are more competitive. The Liberals and NDP still have considerable room to grow.
PCs Continue to Lead Across Most Regions and Demographics
The PCs lead by a wide margin across all major regions with the exception of Eastern Ontario, where the race is more competitive. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, they are ahead 54% to 24% over the Liberals. In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs hold 55% compared to 17% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP.
Ford’s party leads among men and women and across every age group. They win 44% among younger voters aged 18 to 29 and over 50% among older Ontarians.
Government Approval Holds Steady but Shows Signs of Softness
Approval of the Ford government sits at 42%, unchanged since October. Disapproval has increased by one point to 33%. Another 21% neither approve nor disapprove.
Approval has been relatively stable for several months, but the trendline suggests it is more plateau than resurgence.
Leader Impressions: Ford Holds Lead, Crombie Still Under Water
Doug Ford continues to be the most positively viewed leader although his personal brand image has softened over the past few months. Forty-two percent of Ontarians have a positive impression of him. Thirty-seven percent have a negative view, giving him a net score of +5.
Marit Stiles is next, with 31% positive and 27% negative, a slight improvement.
Mike Schreiner remains largely undefined, with one in five unsure what to think of him.
Preferred Premier: Ford Still Ahead, But Not Overwhelming
When asked who they would prefer as Premier, 45% choose Doug Ford. Seventeen percent choose Bonnie Crombie. Fifteen percent pick Marit Stiles, and 5% Mike Schreiner. Eighteen percent are unsure.
Ford leads in every region and across most demographics.
Mixed Views on Ford’s Impact
When asked about the impact Doug Ford has had on a range of issues, voters are divided. Most say the Premier has improved Ontario’s ability to stand up for itself. Fewer say he has made the province better when it comes to business climate, education, health care or affordability.
Only 11% believe the Ford government has improved housing affordability. Just 14% say health care is better now than before. Thirty-eight percent say it has gotten worse.
Even among PC supporters, many are not convinced the government is making a difference. Fewer than one in four say the government has improved health care or housing. More say those areas have not changed.
The Upshot
Doug Ford and the PCs remain firmly in the lead in Ontario. But this wave of data shows a few warning signs beneath the surface.
The Premier’s personal numbers continue to slide and his party continues to dominate among older voters and in every region of the province. The Liberals and NDP have yet to break through in a serious way although with the OLP about to start a leadership race, the NDP and Marit Stiles are rising.
But signs of fatigue are emerging. Four in ten voters say it is time for a change. Many PC supporters are lukewarm in their evaluations of the government’s performance on core issues like health care, affordability and jobs.
This survey was conducted just before the release of the Ford government’s fall economic statement. Whether the policies announced this week can reassure voters or shift perceptions remains to be seen.
What is clear is that while the PCs remain in a strong position, there is softness in their support. The potential for movement is real. But as of now, no alternative has fully capitalized
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from November 5 to 6, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, education and region. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. Learn more: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards
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