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NL Election 2015: St. John’s West – Liberal Siobhán Coady leads NDP Leader McCurdy by 33 points

November 17, 2015

By David Coletto & Bruce Anderson

PdfExportVOCM News commissioned Abacus Data to conduct surveys in four provincial electoral districts. Today, we report the results of a survey of 500 eligible voters living in St. John’s West.

Download the full results deck here: http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-St.-Johns-West-Nov-2015.pdf

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The Race in St. John’s West

Liberal candidate Siobhán Coady has a 33-point lead over NDP leader Earle McCurdy with 57% of decided voters in the district, followed by Mr. McCurdy at 24% and PC candidate and incumbent MHA Dan Crummell in third at 19%. 26% of respondents were undecided or not voting.

Ms. Coady’s support is strong among men and women, and particularly strong among those a university degree while the PC’s are far behind in every single demographic group.

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We also measured the mood of voters in the district, their perceptions of the party leaders, and what issues were most important to them. Here’s what we found:

> 83% think it is time for a change in government (4 points above the provincial average).

> The economy and jobs (29%), and health care (21%) are the top issues in the district, similar to provincial level findings.

> 68% would consider voting Liberal (5 points below the provincial average), 41% would consider voting NDP (5 points above provincial average) and 35% would consider voting PC (3 points above the provincial average).

> Liberal Leader Dwight Ball is the most popular party leader in the district (42% positive, 13% negative) although Mr. Davis’ personal numbers are not particularly bad (37% positive and 23% negative. Mr. Ball’s net impression score is lower (NL +40, St. John’s West +29) while Mr. Davis’ numbers are somewhat higher (NL +7, St. John’s West +14). Mr. McCurdy’s numbers are slightly better in St. John’s West than provincially (NL +4, St. John’s West +7).

> While the PC’s are in third place in St. John’s West, a majority (56%) think the province is headed in the right direction (province wide 54%).

> 81% of voters think the Liberal Party will win the provincial election and 59% think the Liberal candidate will win locally in St. John’s West. Province-wide, 76% of respondents said they believed the Liberals would win the election.

> 51% of those we surveyed voted Liberal in the recent federal election, 26% voted NDP and 6% voted Conservative. 77% of those who voted Liberal federally are planning to vote for Ms. Coady and the Liberals provincially while 58% of federal NDP voters say they are planning on voting for Mr. McCurdy and the NL NDP.

The Upshot

Barring any sudden change in views among the electorate in St. John’s West, Liberal candidate Siobhan Coady should win the election leaving NDP Leader Earle McCurdy without a seat in the House of Assembly.

Much like our provincial survey released two weeks ago, Ms. Coady’s lead is built on a broad desire for change, positive feelings about Liberal leader Dwight Ball, and appeal of the Liberal brand among both Liberal and NDP voters.

Despite what would normally be very favourable conditions for an incumbent party (52% think province is headed in the right direction and 37% have a favourable impression of the Premier), the PCs are a distant third among committed voters in the district.

Download the full results deck here: http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-Labrador-Political-Survey-St.-Johns-West-Nov-2015.pdf

Methodology

The random live-interview telephone survey was conducted with 500 eligible voters living in the provincial electoral district of St. John’s West. The survey was completed from November 8 to 12, 2015.

The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of 500 respondents using a probability sample is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data was statistically weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched population of the electoral district.

Note the small sample sizes when reviewing results in subgroups.

For more information about the poll’s methodology or the results, please contact David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.