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HOW WOULD TRUMP DO IN CANADA? REALLY BADLY.

May 25, 2016

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

PdfExportAs the Republican and Democratic Parties look to be mostly wrapped up their selection process for this fall’s Presidential Elections, we asked Canadians how they were feeling about Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump.

Here’s what we found:

• Ms. Clinton would sweep Canada by 80% to 20% nationally.

• Bernie Sanders vs Trump would produce almost identical results, with the Democrat winning that hypothetical match-up 82%-18%.

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• If Canada’s provinces were US states, Donald Trump would carry none of them: Ms. Clinton would clobber the real estate developer coast to coast, including by a 74%-26% margin in the most conservative province in Canada, Alberta.

• Women were especially uninterested in Mr. Trump (87%-13%) but three out of four men (73%) wouldn’t vote for him either.

• The only subgroup that shows an unusual level of interest in Mr. Trump is those who voted CPC last fall. 39% said they would vote for Trump; Hillary Clinton would carry Conservatives here with 61%.

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The challenges for Trump are not just a function of the normal Canadian skew towards Democrats over Republicans. His image among Canadians is burdened in several ways:

• 82% think Trump is certainly (54%) or probably (28%) a racist when it comes to his views of some minority groups.

• 82% believe Trump certainly (55%) or probably (27%) doesn’t really understand the rest of the world.

• Almost as many (75%) say Trump is certainly (45%) or probably (30%) disrespectful of women. 80% of women feel this way.

• 84% doubt a President Trump would make the world a safer place.

• His campaign slogal is that he will “make America great again”. Most (79%) don’t believe Mr. Trump would do that.

• For every person who thinks he would improve the US economy, two don’t feel that way. (32%-68%)

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THE UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson:

“It’s not unusual at all for Canadians to be more drawn to Democratic rather than Republican Presidential candidates.

However the breadth and depth of the negative reaction to Mr. Trump seems unusual. Today Canadian progressive, centrist and conservative voters all hold his values in poor regard, when it comes to tolerance of minorities and respect for women.

Across the board there are anxieties about his impact on peace and world security His potential as an economic fixer is widely doubted. In short, many Canadians feel his election would be bad for the world, and for America too.”

Methodology

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from May 17 to 20, 2016. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data Inc.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD.


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