Will Crime and Public Safety Perceptions Influence Vote Choice in the Next Federal Election? 57% Say Crime Will Be a Major Factor in Their Decision.
October 25, 2024
From October 17 to 22, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,460 Canadian adults (18+) to examine their perceptions on crime and public safety. While issues like housing affordability and the cost of living dominate public discourse, the results show that crime and public safety remain key concerns for many Canadians, with most feeling that conditions are getting worse. This growing anxiety is shaping political behaviour, with many voters favouring parties that emphasize stricter enforcement policies.
Current Perspectives on Crime and Safety
The results reveal that 58% of Canadians feel the overall crime situation in the country is negative, with Conservative supporters (70%) more likely to express concern than Liberals (36%) or NDP supporters (46%). Among those who view crime negatively, 78% believe Canada is headed in the wrong direction, underscoring the role of safety in shaping broader public dissatisfaction.
Regional differences reveal distinct crime challenges across provinces. British Columbia sees high concern over drug-related offenses (59%) and organized crime (40%), while property crime is the leading issue in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62%) and Alberta (47%), with break-ins also prominent (47% in SK/MB; 39% in AB). In Ontario, vehicle theft (44%) tops the list of concerns, while organized crime (54%) is the dominant issue in Quebec.
Conditions Across the Country Are Worsening
Most Canadians believe that conditions in their communities are worsening, with more than 1 in 2 believing that most types of crime are worsening in their area. This concern is highlighted for drug-related crimes, with 57% saying the situation is deteriorating, followed closely by vehicle theft (54%) and property crime (52%).
Canadians who perceive these issues as getting worse are significantly more likely to express an intention to vote for the Conservative Party in the next federal election. This suggests that negative experiences with local crime and public safety are driving voters toward the Conservatives or that Conservative-oriented voters are more sensitive to perceptions about rising crime in their community. Either way, there is a strong correlation. In contrast, those planning to vote for the Liberal Party are less likely to report worsening conditions in their area, indicating a divergence in how voters experience and interpret local issues.
Confidence in the Government to Address Crime and Public Safety
Currently, 45% of Canadians lack confidence in the federal government’s ability to address crime and public safety effectively. Among those with low confidence, 63% plan to vote for the Conservative Party in the next election, while only 9% intend to support the Liberals. Furthermore, 64% of those lacking confidence in the government’s handling of these issues believe the overall crime situation in Canada is negative, reflecting a close link between public dissatisfaction with public safety and political preferences.
What Should We Do to Address Crime and Public Safety?
When considering what actions, the federal government should prioritize to reduce and prevent crime, 56% of Canadians support implementing stricter laws and penalties for certain offenses. Additionally, 49% emphasize improving social services to address the root causes of crime, 48% advocate for stricter bail conditions for repeat offenders, and 47% call for enhanced mental health and addiction support services. These priorities reflect a strong public desire for a comprehensive approach – balancing tougher enforcement measures with investments in social and mental health support to tackle both immediate criminal behavior and its underlying causes.
Political preferences shape distinct approaches to crime prevention. Conservative supporters emphasize enforcement, favouring stricter laws and penalties (63%), tighter bail conditions for repeat offenders (54%), bail reforms to prevent pre-trial release for serious offenders (52%), and increased funding for law enforcement (47%). In contrast, Liberal and NDP supporters focus more on support services. Liberals prioritize expanding mental health and addiction services (58%), while NDP supporters emphasize addressing root causes through social services (65%), mental health supports (61%), and community-based crime prevention initiatives (51%). These priorities reflect a divide between enforcement-driven and support-based strategies reflected across the political spectrum.
Importance of Crime and Public Safety in Voter Intent
Currently, 37% of Canadians believe Pierre Poilievre has the most effective plan to address crime and public safety, compared to 15% for Justin Trudeau and 12% for Jagmeet Singh. 30% are unsure reflect a high degree of uncertainty and an opportunity for the parties to clarify their approach and plans going forward. This belief is even stronger among those who view crime and safety in Canada negatively, with 45% of them favouring Poilievre’s plan, while only 8% support Trudeau’s and 9% support Singh’s approach.
In the lead-up to the next election, 57% of Canadians say crime and safety issues will influence their voting decisions. For comparison sake, a recent Abacus poll found 38% say climate policy will be an important factor in their vote choice.
Among those who consider crime and public safety important heading into the next election, 48% plan to vote for Pierre Poilievre, compared to 23% for Justin Trudeau and 15% for Jagmeet Singh – a trend that holds even for those who see the issue as moderately important. The three main parties are effectively tied among Canadians who say crime and safety issues will not be an important issue determining their vote.
The Upshot
While crime may not be as salient an issue right now as affordability, housing, or healthcare capacity, it’s salience has risen over the past few years. The Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made crime a central party of their narrative, emphasizing consistently how they will “stop the crime”.
Perceptions of rising crime are influencing political preferences, with voters increasingly demanding action on public safety.
For voters, the divide between enforcement and prevention reflects distinct priorities shaping political preferences. Conservative-leaning voters tend to prioritize immediate safety solutions, supporting tougher penalties, stricter bail conditions, and more law enforcement funding to address crime swiftly. In contrast, Liberal and NDP voters emphasize socially focused approaches, favouring investments in social supports, mental health services, and initiatives that target the root causes of crime.
These differing priorities suggest that voters are not just looking for crime policies – they are seeking approaches that align with their broader values and expectations for public safety. But in an environment where the fear of crime is higher, the Conservative approach seems to be finding a wider audience now and is likely reinforcing the party’s support.
Crime is unlikely to be the ballot question for most voters, but it will likely shape the perceptions and evaluations voters make of their political choice when the next federal election comes.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,460 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.56 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.