What Happened? The 2025 Canadian Election Post-Mortem
May 8, 2025
For much of 2023 and 2024, Canadians were deeply entrenched in a scarcity mindset—a psychological state characterized by anxiety about the accessibility and affordability of basic necessities. This mindset had profound political implications, creating widespread discontent. Life felt perpetually uncertain, with essential items and services harder to obtain, increasingly expensive, and prone to sudden loss. Such sentiments inevitably translated into fierce anti-incumbent sentiment, a trend vividly captured by the Financial Times’ global analysis showing 2024 as one of the worst years for incumbent governments globally in over 100 years. Whether it was Biden’s Democratic Party in the US or Macron’s coalition in France, not a single ruling parties anywhere saw its popular support increase from the previous time it faced voters.
Canada was no exception. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, already battered by growing dissatisfaction over affordability and economic insecurity, faced catastrophic polling numbers by late 2024. When Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in December, just 12% of Canadians believed the Liberal government deserved re-election—a clear indictment of voter fatigue and desire for change. Trudeau’s subsequent resignation announcement plunged the party into unprecedented depths, with the Liberals trailing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by a remarkable 27 points—47% to 20%, the largest margin Abacus Data had ever measured in its extensive polling history.
Yet, the narrative quickly shifted following a seismic political event south of the border. Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency in January 2025 drastically reshaped the Canadian electoral landscape. Trump’s provocative talk of annexing Canada and threats and then the imposition of aggressive tariffs swiftly replaced domestic scarcity concerns with an even more profound feeling: precarity. Unlike scarcity, precarity is rooted in deep-seated fears about the stability and reliability of foundational systems—employment, healthcare, economic independence, national security. The Canadian public was gripped by uncertainty, worried not just about immediate survival but the integrity of long-term societal structures.
In this atmosphere of heightened anxiety, Mark Carney’s entry into the Liberal leadership race was impeccably timed. Carney—a figure synonymous with steady-handed economic stewardship from his tenure as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England—represented precisely the leadership style voters craved amidst turmoil. His subsequent victory was not just a leadership win but a complete reset in public perception about federal governance. Indeed, Abacus Data’s extensive tracking illustrates a dramatic recovery in government approval immediately following Carney’s assumption of office, surging from a paltry 27% approval to an impressive 43% in mere weeks. Carney quickly became the reassuring figure voters felt could capably address the imminent threat posed by Trump’s America and Justin Trudeau was now in the rearview window.
Heading into the 2025 election, two distinct ballot questions emerged, deeply dividing the electorate: handling the Trump threat versus delivering political and economic change. Initially, Trump dominated the narrative; voters prioritized security and stability, heavily favouring the Liberals, who enjoyed an overwhelming advantage on handling relations with Trump. Indeed, among the 21% of voters who saw Trump as the most critical issue, a staggering 76% thought the Liberals could best deal with the issue compared to just 13% for Conservatives. The Conservatives, in contrast, lead by 11-points, when those who ranked the cost of living as the top issue were asked which party could best deal with that issue.
However, as the campaign progressed, the salience of the Trump issue waned slightly, replaced increasingly by voters’ desire for change. By election day, 55% of Canadians saw “change” as their primary voting determinant, significantly up from earlier polling waves conducted by Abacus Data. This shift dramatically favoured the Conservatives, with 57% of these “change voters” supporting Poilievre’s party versus 30% for the Liberals.
Still, Carney’s leadership effectively mitigated the damage from this shift. Critically, he captured a substantial 30% of “change voters,” illustrating his success in distancing himself from Trudeau’s unpopular legacy. Trudeau was undeniably Carney’s kryptonite, just as Trump was Poilievre’s. Without Trudeau’s departure, Abacus Data’s hypothetical polling indicates the Liberals would have suffered a severe loss, polling just 28% compared to the Conservatives’ 46%.
Carney’s positive impact on the Liberals was underscored by voter impressions. Both major party leaders finished the campaign with net positive ratings—remarkable given the polarized political environment. Carney, notably, ended with an impressive +17 net approval, remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Poilievre also managed a respectable +2, signifying widespread recognition of his focus on economic and social change, though clearly overshadowed by Carney’s aura of expertise and stability.
Leadership attributes emerged as pivotal determinants in voter decisions. Abacus Data’s polling revealed that voters viewed Carney significantly more favourably on key leadership metrics: “standing up to a bully” (46% Carney vs. 38% Poilievre) and “captaining a ship through a bad storm” (40% Carney vs. 35% Poilievre). Carney’s commanding lead in these areas underscored voters’ yearning for stability and reassurance.
The ultimate election result reflected these nuanced dynamics. Liberals narrowly edged Conservatives nationally, securing 44% of the vote to the Conservatives’ 41%, while the NDP collapsed to just 6%, its worst performance historically. This result was decisively shaped by voter flows.
Notably, the Liberals lost 16% of their 2021 voters directly to the Conservatives but significantly compensated by winning 42% of former NDP voters, while Conservatives gained 21% of past NDP voters. This voter shift encapsulates the electoral dynamics perfectly: progressive voters, fearing Trump, strategically consolidated around Carney’s Liberals.
Age demographics also played a critical role. The Liberals performed strongest among voters over 60, gaining a remarkable 19 points compared to 2021. Conversely, Conservatives showed the strongest gains among voters aged 30 to 44, increasing their vote share by 17 points, highlighting generational divides in election priorities.
Abacus Data’s Precarity Index clearly demonstrated precarity’s electoral significance. Among high-precarity voters, Liberals outperformed Conservatives significantly (49% to 35%). Remarkably, 42% of high-precarity Liberal voters did not vote Liberal in 2021—most having supported the NDP or abstained entirely. This underscores the Liberals’ success in attracting voters profoundly concerned about long-term stability and systemic risks.
Carney’s personal appeal was evident in detailed image assessments conducted by Abacus Data. He scored highly on trustworthiness, competence, and the ability to unite Canadians. However, Carney wasn’t perceived as particularly “in touch” with everyday Canadians—a significant departure from past elections, where relatability was seen as a crucial trait. Notably, Carney openly admitted on Radio Canada TV that he does not do his own grocery shopping. Despite this, almost half of Canadians had a positive view of Mr. Carney, underscoring his broad electoral appeal.
When compared with Poilievre, Carney was ahead by 13 on “smart”, by 9 on “ready to be Prime Minister”, by 6 on “a leader” and by 7 on “principled”. The only areas where Poilievre beat Carney were “mean” by 13 points, hypocritical by 5, and on tough by just one point.
Policy preferences post-election clearly prioritize immediate economic relief and security: tax cuts, permanent dental care, and mental health funding ranked as top priorities among voters, highlighting continued economic anxiety and the desire for systemic reassurance.
We asked Canadians what three issues they want the new Carney government to prioritize, and the results underscore their continuing desire for immediate economic relief, improved affordability, but also protection from the precarity.
Half (50%) identified cutting income taxes as one of their top three priorities, clearly highlighting ongoing economic anxiety and a strong preference for direct financial relief. Cancelling the carbon tax ranked second at 40%, reflecting continued sensitivity around cost-of-living concerns tied to energy prices. Additionally, 36% of respondents equally prioritized dental care, building 500,000 new homes, and capping temporary immigration, highlighting a balanced demand for investments in healthcare, housing affordability, and controlled population growth. Mental health funding (28%) also featured prominently, underscoring the public’s recognition of mental health as an integral aspect of overall well-being in an era marked by persistent uncertainty. Collectively, this data suggests Canadians expect swift action from the government on pocketbook issues and tangible policy interventions aimed at securing both short-term relief and longer-term stability.
The Upshot
Reflecting on the 2025 election, three interconnected events reshaped Canada’s political trajectory: Trump’s re-election, Trudeau’s resignation, and Carney’s emergence as Liberal leader. Each was indispensable. Trump refocused Canadians on existential risks, Trudeau’s departure offered the Liberals a desperately needed reset, and Carney’s leadership provided voters with confidence amid deepening precarity. Without any of these factors, the Liberal victory would likely have been impossible.
The 2025 Canadian federal election serves as a clear example of how quickly voter sentiment can shift under the influence of external events and internal party dynamics. While the election was not exclusively about Donald Trump, it was undeniably shaped by his return to power and provocative interventions. Trump’s threats of annexation and aggressive tariffs fundamentally altered the electoral landscape, swiftly transitioning Canadians from a scarcity mindset—concerned primarily with affordability and immediate economic pressures—to a precarity mindset, characterized by deeper anxieties over national security, long-term stability, and systemic reliability.
For anyone in public affairs, several useful insights emerge from this election:
Firstly, the resilience of leadership narratives cannot be overstated. Mark Carney’s success demonstrates that in moments of crisis, voters prioritize perceived competence and stability above relatability. Despite being openly detached from everyday experiences—highlighted starkly by his own admission of not doing his grocery shopping—Carney triumphed because voters were searching not for a relatable figure but for a reassuring presence capable of managing threats and delivering systemic stability. The public’s strong preference for Carney’s leadership traits, such as “standing up to a bully” and effectively “captaining a ship through a bad storm,” underscores the premium placed on decisive, authoritative leadership during precarious times.
Secondly, the dramatic shift in public opinion following Trudeau’s resignation cannot be ignored. Abacus Data’s hypothetical scenarios clearly illustrate that had Trudeau remained leader, the Liberals would have faced electoral disaster, polling at just 28% compared to the Conservatives’ commanding 46%. This highlights how strongly Trudeau had become synonymous with voter frustration and dissatisfaction. The Liberals’ recovery hinged on their ability to distance themselves from Trudeau’s legacy, allowing Carney to reposition the party as credible guardians of national interest and stability. Carney would be wise to reflect on that and find ways to demonstrate this distance from the Trudeau era both in substance and process.
Thirdly, strategic framing of ballot questions significantly impacted voter alignment. Throughout the campaign, two dominant narratives competed: the existential threat posed by Trump’s America versus the widespread desire for economic and political change domestically. Carney adeptly managed this duality by capturing a significant share of “change voters,” despite the Liberals’ incumbency. This indicates that effective campaign strategy involves not only addressing primary voter concerns but also skillfully positioning oneself as capable of managing multiple competing narratives simultaneously. Something the Conservatives failed to do sufficiently.
Moreover, the collapse of the NDP vote—down to a historic low of 6%—offers a critical lesson in electoral realignment driven by strategic voting. Progressive voters, alarmed by Trump’s aggressive posture and anxious about the stability of Canadian society, overwhelmingly consolidated around the Liberals, abandoning the NDP. This underscores the volatility and fluidity of voter allegiance during periods of heightened insecurity, revealing an opportunity and challenge for parties to effectively communicate relevance and urgency.
Finally,we should recognize the enduring significance of economic reassurance as a policy priority. Even post-election, voters remain deeply concerned about affordability, healthcare accessibility, and financial security. Policies aimed at addressing these areas—tax relief, dental care expansion, mental health funding—resonate strongly, reflecting the precarity mindset’s emphasis on long-term systemic stability.
The 2025 election illustrates the potent interplay between external crises, leadership perception, and voter psychology. Anyone in public affairs needs to be acutely aware of how rapidly shifting circumstances and targeted interventions by external actors—like Trump—can profoundly reshape electoral dynamics, redefining what voters demand from their leaders and their government.
Good research and the best public opinion advisors can help you navigate this complexity by providing timely insights into shifting voter priorities, clearly mapping the dynamics driving public sentiment, and identifying opportunities to effectively communicate your message.
Team Abacus exactly this—trusted, influential, precise, and actionable insights that make us the best in the business and essential partners for understanding and responding to rapidly changing electoral landscapes.
Data in this analysis comes from…
A post-election survey conducted with 1,500 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 29 to May 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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