What do Canadians Think About the Emissions Cap on the Oil & Gas Sector
December 4, 2024
From November 15 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) to explore public opinions on the federal government’s proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, set to take effect by 2030. Results highlight a divided public on the federal emissions cap, with support generally split between those prioritizing climate action and those concerned about the economic impact, particularly in oil-dependent regions. The findings also highlight opinion challenges in balancing environmental goals with economic considerations, especially when it comes to balancing regional interests in the country. As the federal government moves forward with ambitious climate policies, these insights underscore the complex task ahead in building social license for the policy choices.
Awareness of the Emissions Cap
Overall, 50% of Canadians were aware of the emissions cap on the oil and gas sector announcement by the federal government. The level of awareness varies significantly by political affiliation and region. Awareness was highest among Conservative supporters (58%), and those in Alberta (59%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%). This lack of awareness highlights a broader, ongoing communication challenge faced by all governments trying to connect with audiences who are increasingly fragmented and harder to reach than ever.
Opinion on the Emissions Cap Announcement
Among those who are aware of the announcement, opinions are split – 32% of Canadians support the cap as a necessary action for climate change, while 32% oppose it, citing concerns about its negative economic impact. Further, 33% have mixed feelings, depending on how the policy is implemented. The support for the emissions cap is highest in Quebec (44%) and among Liberal (53%) and NDP (46%) supporters. In contrast, opposition is most pronounced in Alberta (45%) and among Conservative supporters (53%). These divisions reveal the challenging landscape the government must navigate to win broader acceptance of its climate policies at a point in time when most Canadians are focused on the economic pressures of their day-to-day lives.
Divided Opinions on the Impact of the Emissions Cap
Nearly half of Canadians who are aware of the announcement (47%) believe the emissions cap risks deepening divisions in the country by creating a stark contrast between environmental concerns and economic interests. This is especially true in Alberta, where 62% feel the cap will further divide the country, compared to only 40% of Quebecers and 39% of Atlantic Canadians who see it as a positive step for climate change. Politically, there is a fairly deep partisan split. Conservative supporters (68%) are most likely to view the policy as a source of division, while Liberal (54%) and NDP (44%) supporters see it as necessary for climate action. These findings highlight the difficulty of achieving national unity on climate policy, particularly in regions, like Alberta, with significant economic stakes in the oil and gas sector.
Political Divide on the Effectiveness of the Emissions Cap for Climate Goals
When it comes to the potential impact of the emissions cap on Canada’s long-term climate goals, many Canadians express skepticism due to the opposition it faces – 41% believe it will have some effect, but that opposition from key provinces will limit its overall effectiveness, while 21% feel the cap will have little to no impact because of this resistance. In fact, only 26% of those aware of the announcement believe it will still make a significant impact despite the pushback. Politically, Liberal supporters are most likely to see the cap as a significant move for climate action (43%), while NDP supporters (53%) are more cautious, believing the impact will be minimal due to the opposition. Conservative supporters, however, are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with the majority believing the cap will have little to no effect.
Looking for Balance
35% of Canadians who are aware of the emissions cap believe that the federal government can balance the urgent need for climate action with the concerns of oil and gas producing regions, without alienating significant portions of the population by providing more support for the transition to clean energy. Another 1 in 4 feel the government should focus more on national unity and less on divisive climate targets, while 26% support easing the burden on the oil and gas sector through incentives or subsidies.
These preferences reflect a political divide, with Conservative supporters (43%) emphasizing national unity, while Liberal (55%) and NDP (48%) supporters are more focused on transitioning to clean energy. This highlights the key challenge facing the government: how to reconcile the urgency of climate action with the economic realities of both Canadians in general and of oil-dependent regions.
Approaches to Balancing Climate Action and Regional Concerns
Economic concerns are the largest barrier to building support for climate action in Canada, with 54% of Canadians citing the potential impact on jobs and livelihoods. Conservative supporters are particularly concerned about the immediate economic impacts, with 62% identifying them as the primary obstacle. Beyond economic factors, 24% of Canadians point to political divides as a major challenge, and 22% highlight a lack of understanding about climate change, a concern especially strong among younger Canadians (18-29: 29%). These findings underscore the fact that to build broader support for climate policies, the current government will need to address both economic and informational gaps while also working to bridge political divides.
Strategies for Engaging Provinces in Climate Policy Implementation
Overall, 38% of Canadians believe the federal government can better engage with provinces by collaborating more closely on regional solutions and setting flexible targets. This view is particularly strong among Albertans, 43% of whom support this approach. Additionally, 21% of Canadians feel that targeted investments in energy diversification could help, especially among Liberal supporters (31%). Meanwhile, 20% support gradual changes that reduce the burden on the oil and gas sectors, a perspective held by 26% of Conservative supporters. This paints a clear divide in public opinion on how to balance climate action with regional concerns, emphasizing that for climate policies to be successful, they must be dynamic and adaptable. Solutions need to consider the diverse economic and political realities of each province, incorporating various perspectives to ensure broad support and effectiveness.
The Upshot
The federal government’s proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas sector for 2030 is a highly divisive issue in Canada, with political and regional divides shaping public opinion.
First, it is striking that, despite how much friction the emissions cap has created and the attention it’s received, only half of Canadians are aware of it.
While some see it as crucial for addressing climate change, others worry about its short-term economic impact, particularly in regions which are more reliant on fossil fuel industries. The challenge for the government is advancing climate policy while addressing these economic concerns.
For supporters of the cap, the focus should remain on pushing forward climate policies while providing support for regions impacted by the transition. By balancing climate goals with a clear plan to protect economic stability, supporters can strengthen their position and likely expand support by focusing on the need to address climate change while also alleviating economic pressures.
For opponents, the emphasis should be on addressing immediate economic concerns, particularly job security and the cost of living. There is an audience for advocate for gradual climate action that supports economic stability, ensuring that the transition to cleaner energy does not harm livelihoods. By addressing the economic realities of fossil fuel industries, opponents of this policy choice can balance the need for climate action with the economic priorities of their constituents, positioning themselves as protectors of jobs and economic stability.
Climate change remains one of the most divisive policy issues in the country. It divides Canadians across regional and political lines. As climate policy continues to impact the political landscape, leaders must navigate these divides, ensuring climate goals are met while protecting economic stability and jobs, especially in energy-dependent regions. Canadians are deeply aware of the long-term risks of climate change, but they are equally conscious of the essential role the energy sector plays in driving the economy, supporting employment, and impacting the cost of living. To be effective, any approach to climate policy must balance these competing concerns – ensuring that climate goals are met while safeguarding economic stability and livelihoods. Solutions must be dynamic, balancing the need for climate action with economic and social realities.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 15 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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