Abacus Data Poll: More Canadians Believe Kamala Harris Will Win Presidential Election Than Do Donald Trump
August 13, 2024
As the US political landscape rapidly shifted over the past three weeks, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults, from July 31 to August 7, 2024, to explore their impressions of US presidential candidates. We also asked which candidate is more likely to win the election.
In terms of positive impressions, Vice President Kamala Harris has a significant favourable advantage among Canadians with a net impression of +27. More specifically, positive impressions of Vice President Harris more than double negative impressions (48% vs 21%).
In clear contrast, impressions of former President Donald Trump are overwhelming negative with a net score of -37. 61% of surveyed Canadians hold a negative impression, with nearly 50% holding a “very negative” impression, while only 24% hold a positive impression.
For former President Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, impressions are somewhat mixed. While a majority of Canadians have negative perception of the VP candidate (with 38%) and a net score of -24, 26% of Canadians report not knowing enough yet to have an opinion and 22% have neutral impressions.
For context, Joe Biden’s net favourable score in Canada right now is -12 with 27% positive and 39% negative.
Positive impressions of Vice President Harris are particularly high among those 60-and-over (with 61%), while only 37% of younger Canadians, those 18-to-29, hold positive impressions of the candidate. Interestingly, there is almost no gender gap, as positive impressions are nearly the same among men and women.
Regionally, Canadians are more likely to have a positive impression of Vice President Harris in nearly all provinces, with the exception of Alberta, where 33% hold a negative impression. Still, those with a negative impression in Alberta are statistically tied with those who hold a positive impression. Harris also enjoys positive impressions with a clear majority of Liberal and NDP supporters (68% and 65% respectively), while more Conservatives hold a negative view than a positive one (although 33% of Conservative supporters say they have a favourable impression of Harris).
Across all demographic, regional, and political groups, a majority of Canadians have a negative impression of Donald Trump.
In terms of age, positive impressions of former President Trump are highest among those 30-to-44 and 45-to-59 (with 30%), while an overwhelming 78% of those 60-and-over have a negative impression. A higher percentage of women hold negative impressions of former President Trump (64%), compared to men (58%).
Among Conservative supporters, 38% hold a positive view of Trump while 43% have a negative view, which is comparable to the 34% of respondents in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 31% in Alberta.
In contrast, 80% of NDP supporters and 69% of Liberal supporters hold a negative impression of Trump.
Who do Canadians think will win the US presidential election?
More Canadians believe Kamala Harris will win the election than do those who think Trump will win. 41% think Harris will win compared with 33% who think Trump will win. 1 in 4 are unsure.
Conservative supporters and Albertans are most likely to predict a Trump victory while every other regional, demographic, and political group believes Harris will win.
The Upshot
A majority of Canadians, across nearly all demographic groups, hold a negative impression of former President Donald Trump, as he remains an unpopular and controversial political figure. in Canada In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris is widely liked and would be the most popular political leader in Canada if she was leader of a Canadian political party. For context, she is also much more favourably viewed than President Joe Biden, even after he announced he was not running for re-election.
Impressions of both Harris and Trump, however, are related to age and political affiliation. Harris is particularly popular among older Canadians, as well as Liberal and NDP supporters. For Conservative supporters, impressions of Trump are more evenly distributed.
With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the US presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a surge in support among the American electorate, and Democrats are now more confident in their chances of winning the next election. We find that a majority of Canadians believe Harris is more like to become the next US president. suggesting the rapidly evolving election in the United States is being watched closely by Canadians and views about the outcome have shifted to favour the Democratic candidate.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.489%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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