Which Trust Attributes Most Drive the Reputations of Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre?
October 1, 2024
In politics, trust is a currency that every leader needs, but few can consistently maintain. It shapes the way voters feel about those in power or those aspiring to it. Without trust, even the most well-intentioned policies and offers can fall flat, and the most charismatic leaders can lose their appeal. And trust isn’t just about liking someone—it’s built on a range of qualities that go beyond likeability, charm, or warmth.
At Abacus Data, we’ve spent years exploring what drives perceptions of trust – whether for political leaders, brands, employers, industries, or stakeholders.
Recently, I applied the same methods we use in our reputation practice for North America’s leading brands, companies, associations, and unions to better understand the drivers of the reputation of Canada’s most prominent politicians: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Using data from our September 2024 survey of 1,700 Canadians, I used advanced techniques, including multiple regression analysis, to uncover the key attributes that shape how Canadians feel about these two leaders. And the results were both revealing and instructive.
Multiple regression is a statistical technique used to determine how several independent variables contribute to a single outcome, or dependent variable, when they are considered simultaneously. In the context of analyzing perceptions of political leaders, we use multiple regression to examine how different trust attributes—like openness, fairness, and accountability—collectively influence public impressions. By including all the variables together in the model, multiple regression helps isolate the individual effect of each attribute while controlling for the influence of others. This allows us to see which factors contribute the most to shaping opinions, offering a more precise understanding of the drivers behind people’s perceptions. In our case, the model revealed that for both Trudeau and Poilievre, certain trust attributes—such as openness and honesty—play a much more significant role in determining overall impressions compared to others.
Why Trust Matters More Than Ever
Trust is not just a nice to have. It’s an essential quality in an era where public skepticism is sky-high and the political landscape is increasingly polarized. And while it’s true politicians generally have a hard time developing and keeping trust with the public, it is the essential ingredient determining whether people believe what you say, buy into your vision, and feel confident you’ll deliver.
It’s not just about avoiding scandals or gaffes; it’s about consistently showing that you are who you say you are.
We broke down trust into several core attributes that we believe form the foundation of how Canadians judge whether a leader is trustworthy.
These include whether a leader is open and honest, whether they treat people fairly and with dignity, and whether they take responsibility for their actions (the full list is below). These attributes aren’t just relevant to politics—think of the most trusted brands or employers. They inspire confidence because they deliver consistently and reliably, they are transparent, fair, and accountable. The same is true for political leaders.
A Tale of Two Leaders: Trudeau vs. Poilievre
So, how do Canadians feel about Trudeau and Poilievre right now?
For Justin Trudeau, the numbers paint a challenging picture:
6% of Canadians have a very positive view of him.
16% hold a somewhat positive view.
16% are neutral.
20% are somewhat negative.
41% have a very negative opinion.
Only 1% don’t know enough to form an opinion.
In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s numbers show a more balanced and positive, albeit divided, landscape:
17% have a very positive view of him.
22% are somewhat positive.
19% are neutral.
10% are somewhat negative.
27% hold a very negative opinion.
5% say they don’t know enough to have an opinion.
These numbers give us a snapshot of public sentiment, but to really understand why Canadians feel this way, we need to dig deeper into the drivers behind these impressions.
How Trudeau and Poilievre Perform on Trust Attributes
The chart below provides an assessment of how Canadians perceive key attributes of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It shows that less than half of respondents feel that Trudeau embodies the trust attributes asked about in the survey. The highest positive ratings are for safeguarding confidential information (48%), acting according to his principles (45%), and valuing others’ opinions and treating them with dignity (44%). Lower ratings are given for doing what he says he will do (40%) and delivering reliable and predictable results (38%). Across all attributes, a significant portion of respondents—ranging from 38% to 53%—feel that these descriptions do not apply to him, reflecting the challenges Trudeau faces in building trust among the public.
The chart assessing Pierre Poilievre reveals that Canadians have a generally more favorable perception of him across several key attributes compared to Justin Trudeau. The highest ratings are for acting according to his principles (57%) and being open and honest about his actions (51%). About half of respondents also feel that Poilievre does what he says he will do (50%). Attributes such as treating everyone fairly, valuing others’ opinions, and safeguarding confidential information all receive 47% agreement. However, there are still notable segments of the population who feel these descriptions do not apply to Poilievre, with a significant proportion expressing uncertainty about his actions and intentions.
What Shapes Impressions of Trudeau?
For Justin Trudeau, trust is built—or eroded—across several dimensions. Our model shows that five key attributes drive how Canadians feel about the Prime Minister. The most influential is whether people think he is open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions—this alone accounts for 26% of the variation in his reputation.
Next, perceptions of whether Trudeau treats everyone fairly and without bias contribute 20% to his overall impression, alongside whether people believe he takes responsibility for his actions and corrects mistakes (also 20%). These are followed closely by whether he does what he says he will do (19%) and whether he values others’ opinions and treats them with dignity (15%).
What this tells us is that Trudeau’s brand is shaped by a variety of factors, each contributing significantly to how he’s perceived. Canadians are looking for transparency and fairness in their leaders, but they also expect accountability. For Trudeau, the fact that these drivers are evenly distributed means there’s no single issue he can focus on to rebuild trust. It’s not just about being more open or correcting mistakes—it’s about addressing all of these areas simultaneously if he hopes to regain the confidence of a disillusioned electorate.
Poilievre’s Narrower but More Concentrated Set of Drivers
Pierre Poilievre’s reputation, on the other hand, is driven by a more focused set of attributes. By far the most important factor in shaping perceptions of Poilievre is whether people think he is open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions—just over half (54%) of his reputation hinges on this single attribute. This makes his public image particularly vulnerable to questions of sincerity or hidden agendas.
Beyond that, whether people think Poilievre treats everyone fairly and without bias accounts for 19% of his reputation, while perceptions of whether he values others’ opinions and treats them with dignity contribute 16%. Together, these three attributes account for almost all of the variation in how Canadians feel about him. In Poilievre’s case, his reputation is largely a reflection of whether people believe he is straightforward and genuine in his intentions. If you think he’s hiding his true intentions, you are much more likely to have a negative view.
The Delivery Gap
One important difference between Trudeau and Poilievre is the role of delivery in shaping their reputations. For Trudeau, his record as Prime Minister over the past nine years means that Canadians also judge him on whether he can deliver reliable and predictable results over time. This factor doesn’t yet apply to Poilievre, who, as opposition leader, is judged more on his intentions and potential rather than his track record.
If Trudeau falters in delivering on promises, his overall trustworthiness suffers. But for Poilievre, the challenge is different—he must first convince Canadians that he’s being consistent and honest about what he plans to deliver.
What Doesn’t Matter as Much
Interestingly, certain attributes—such as whether the leader safeguards confidential information or whether they act according to their principles, even when it’s difficult or inconvenient—don’t appear to have a significant independent effect on how Canadians view either Trudeau or Poilievre. This suggests that voters are less concerned with these abstract concepts and more focused on the visible traits that shape everyday leadership.
What It Means for Both Leaders
For Justin Trudeau, the challenge is clear: he needs to improve perceptions across multiple dimensions. Trust is built on many things, and the fact that Canadians’ views of him are shaped by several factors means there’s no quick fix. To regain trust, he needs to be seen as more transparent, more fair, and more accountable.
Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, faces a different but equally important challenge. With so much of his reputation tied to whether people believe he is open and honest, any cracks in his perceived sincerity could have significant consequences. If Canadians start to believe that Poilievre is hiding something or not being entirely truthful, his favourability could turn negative. Maintaining his net positive reputation will depend on reinforcing the idea that he will do what he says he will and won’t do what he says he won’t.
The Importance of Trust
In the end, trust remains the most valuable asset any leader can possess, but it’s also the most fragile. For Justin Trudeau, the erosion of trust is rooted in a multifaceted set of challenges—he is not just judged on his words but on his actions and his ability to deliver. To rebuild his reputation, he must address multiple dimensions of trust, ranging from transparency to fairness, while also convincing Canadians that he can still be the reliable, accountable leader they once believed in. This won’t be easy, but it’s essential if he hopes to reconnect with a disillusioned public.
For Pierre Poilievre, the stakes are equally high but different. His relatively new role as opposition leader means his brand is still forming, and Canadians’ views of him hinge primarily on whether they perceive him as genuine. Any doubts about his sincerity or hidden motives could rapidly erode the goodwill he’s built. His challenge will be to prove that he is not just transparent about his intentions but that he can deliver on them when given the chance.
As Canada approaches its next federal election, trust will not only shape the fortunes of these two leaders but also define the country’s political landscape. In an era of increasing skepticism, both Trudeau and Poilievre must navigate a complex set of public expectations, each leader facing their own unique trust-related vulnerabilities.
At Abacus Data, we know that trust isn’t just about a single moment in time—it’s built, tested, and reinforced through consistent actions and decisions. Our work in understanding what drives trust in political leaders, as well as in brands and organizations, reveals the deep layers that contribute to public perceptions.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,700 Canadian adults from September 19 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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