Abacus Data Poll: 1 in 4 Canadians are either open to consider or definitely want Canada to join the United States
January 17, 2025
Over the past week, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults to understand public reactions to recent comments by former U.S. President Donald Trump speculating about Canada potentially becoming “the 51st state” or otherwise being annexed by the United States. The survey ran from January 9 to January 14, 2025, capturing Canadians’ awareness of Trump’s statements, their interpretations of his intent, their openness to the idea of Canada joining the U.S., and views about the consequences of a potential 25% tariff on Canadian goods. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is ±2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The results are weighted according to census data by age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Below, we highlight key findings from the survey and consider the implications for Canadian politics, public policy, and the national conversation about Canada’s future relationship with the United States.
Awareness of Trump’s Remarks: Most Canadians are aware.
We began by asking Canadians if they had heard anything about Donald Trump saying that Canada could become the 51st state or be annexed by the U.S. An overwhelming 91% reported being aware of these comments. This high level of awareness is consistent across political lines, with 94% of Liberal supporters, 87% of Conservative supporters, and 91% of NDP supporters having at least some familiarity with the remarks.
Several factors may explain why virtually all Canadians have heard about Trump’s musings: continued high-profile media coverage of U.S. politics in Canada, the enduring fascination with Trump’s polarizing style, and the intrinsic shock value of suggesting that Canada might fold into the United States. Taken together, these factors appear to have propelled the story to near-universal visibility.
Is Trump Joking, Serious, or Something in Between?
We next asked Canadians how seriously they interpret Trump’s remarks. The answers show a country split on what exactly they believe the former President is up to. 49% believe he is using the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state as a negotiation tactic, potentially to gain leverage on trade or policy issues. Another 34% think Trump is serious and genuinely wants Canada to become part of the United States, while 17% assume he is simply joking.
These numbers suggest that while most Canadians do not see him as outright joking, only about one-third interpret his comments as an authentic desire for an actual annexation of Canada. A plurality lands in the middle, sensing a strategic game at play rather than a fully serious proposition. This uncertainty about Trump’s intent sets the stage for how Canadians respond to the broader question of joining the United States.
Openness to Canada Joining the United State: Most remain opposed, but notable pockets are open.
We then posed a more direct question: “Which of the following best describes your view about Canada becoming part of the United States?” We found that 7 in 10 Canadians are absolutely against the idea, but 24% are at least open to exploring it. Only 6% say they absolutely favour Canada becoing part of the United States.
Even with near-universal awareness and a variety of interpretations of Trump’s motives, an outright majority of Canadians is firmly against the idea. However, the one-fifth or so who would at least explore or fully endorse the possibility are noteworthy. This openness, while relatively small as a share of the total population, warrants attention given how out-of-step the concept of annexation would seem in typical Canadian discourse.
Age Differences: Younger Canadians More Open
One of the more striking findings is that younger Canadians (aged 18 to 29) are more receptive to the idea of exploring a union with the U.S. compared to their older counterparts
Among those under 30, 54% are “absolutely against” it, compared to 64% among those 30 to 44 and 80% among those 45 or older.
Meanwhile, more than a quarter (26%) of Canadians aged 18 to 29 say they are “open to exploring” joining the U.S., a noticeably higher proportion than in older groups.
What might explain this generational gap?
Past Abacus Data polling has consistently shown that younger Canadians are more inclined to say they face economic precarities—particularly around housing affordability, job security, and student debt. Some younger people may see closer integration with the United States, or even outright membership, as opening doors to larger job markets, potentially lower housing costs in certain regions, and a more fluid exchange of human capital across the border. Whether these perceptions hold up under scrutiny is another matter, but it helps clarify why younger respondents are more open to at least discussing the idea.
We have also seen in previous research that young Canadians tend to be less attached to traditional national symbols or narratives than older Canadians, possibly making them more open to unusual options—particularly if they see tangible personal benefits. For example, we found that Canadians are far less likely to say they are proud to be Canadian.
Regional and Partisan Differences: Conservative supporters somewhat more open; Quebec most opposed.
When we look at how different regions and partisan communities react, some patterns stand out:
Quebec is the province with the highest proportion of respondents (77%) saying they are “absolutely against” Canada joining the U.S. Historically, Quebec has strongly guarded its cultural and linguistic distinctiveness, and suggestions of further continental integration—much less outright annexation—are likely viewed as threatening to that uniqueness.
Conservative supporters are the most open to exploring the idea (25%) almost twice as likely as Liberal supporters (13%) Nonetheless, a strong majority of Conservatives (58%) remain absolutely against joining the United States.
Perceived Impact of a 25% Tariff on Canadian Goods: Near-unanimous negativity, but varied intensity.
The last major part of the survey focused on the effect a hypothetical 25% tariff on Canadian goods, imposed by a future Trump administration, might have. The results show considerable agreement: 46% believe a 25% tariff would be extremely negative for Canada while 35% view it as quite negative, meaning fully 81% expect detrimental outcomes. Only 3% think the impact would be “quite positive” and 1% “extremely positive.”
Interestingly, a non-trivial 6% believe a 25% tariff would have “no impact,” and 9% say they honestly do not know. While the overwhelming majority sees a tariff as bad news for Canada, the share who say it would be “extremely negative” (46%) is smaller than some might expect, given how dependent Canada’s economy is on trade with the U.S.
This relative tempering of concern could stem from several factors:
- Familiarity with Trade Disputes: Canadians have lived through repeated tariff threats and disputes (on steel, aluminium, softwood lumber, dairy) and may have become somewhat accustomed to a recurring cycle of threats and negotiations.
- Confidence in Negotiation Outcomes: Some Canadians might believe that, even if a tariff is introduced, it would eventually be lifted or mitigated through renegotiation, limiting long-term damage.
- Domestic Resilience: There is also a sense that Canada has diversified trade partnerships, such as CETA with the EU or CPTPP in the Pacific, buffering the full effect of a U.S. tariff.
Regardless, the numbers point to a decisive majority worried about the negative consequences of a hypothetical 25% tariff. As political leaders or interest groups seek to mobilize Canadians around issues of trade policy, they can draw on this widely shared concern—though they should note that the intensity of this concern is not uniform, and a sizeable bloc sees it as damaging but not necessarily catastrophic.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: ““Canadians overwhelmingly know about Trump’s remarks, and while most of them are firmly against the idea of becoming the 51st state, there is a notable pocket of openness. That more than one in five Canadians (combining those ‘open’ and those ‘in favour’) would even consider it suggests that concerns around economic opportunities, housing affordability, or political alignment in certain segments of the population warrant closer examination. Younger Canadians are particularly noteworthy in that regard, indicating shifting views about borders and national identity among Generation Z and millennials.
Regionally, Quebec is the most strongly opposed—no surprise given the province’s longstanding emphasis on cultural distinctiveness. Partisanship also colours perceptions: Conservatives are somewhat more inclined to consider the possibility, though still a majority would never entertain it. These findings reinforce the notion that identity, economics, and partisan orientation shape how Canadians view both Trump’s remarks and Canada’s relationship with the U.S.
On the trade front, nearly everyone expects damaging impacts if a hefty tariff were imposed on Canadian exports, but the sense of devastation is a bit lower than might be anticipated. This tempered response could reflect a public that has witnessed multiple trade scuffles and trusts in some combination of negotiation, resilience, or diversification to limit the worst outcomes. Yet for policymakers and stakeholders lobbying for strong Canada-U.S. trade relations, these results highlight a high baseline of anxiety they can tap into—recognising that it may take more than warnings of economic chaos to sway Canadians who have grown used to brinkmanship on trade issues.
Ultimately, the data illuminates a crossroads in Canadian public opinion: while the vast majority remain committed to Canada’s sovereignty, a meaningful minority wonders whether deeper ties with the U.S., perhaps extending to union, could help solve pressing economic concerns. The fact that most Canadians believe Trump is not merely joking highlights a continued unease about the unpredictability of American politics. All eyes in Canada will likely be on what happens next week in the U.S.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 9 to January 14, 2025, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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