The Conservative Dilemma (and opportunity)
March 29, 2025
In the last couple of months (and even weeks) we have seen big shifts in vote intention federally. What was once a sure win for the Conservative Party has turned into a much narrower race.
One fundamental change between now and before is the issues Canadians care about- particularly the ones they care about the most. Cost of living remains the top issue but even so, the threats to pocketbooks also look different under new trade tensions. And tensions between Canada and the US (specifically Trump) has settled into the top 3 issues consistently for the last few weeks.
One theory I have about this shift in voter intention is that it’s been difficult for the Conservatives to land on their stance about Canada-US relations, and more generally react to what’s happening in the United States. To test this, I put forward some recent actions from the US president and asked Canadians to tell me their thoughts: if they liked the action and how it was done, if they liked it, but not how it was done, or if they were against the issue altogether.
I learned that indeed navigating this new territory can be tricky, for all leaders.
The data below is from an online survey with n=1,701 Canadian residents 18+ from March 10th to 11th 2025.
Finding 1: There is some openness to shaking things up among Canadians at large.
Few Canadians like any of Trump’s actions since he’s taken action (approach and all), but there isn’t outright apprehension to what he’s done. Approach aside, fully half of Canadians are at least somewhat onside with his decisions to pause USAID, create DOGE and bring Russia and Ukraine to the table. They just don’t like how he’s gone about it.
What Canadians are not open to is tariffs, particularly for Canada and Mexico. Here, nearly 8 in 10 oppose these decisions outright.
Still, there is a real openness to the kinds of issues Trump has chosen to work towards in his short time in office thus far.
Finding 2: This is an even larger challenge for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.
First, because Conservatives are more likely than average to say Trump is taking about the right issues. Putting aside whether or not they like the approach, many more Conservative voters like the ideas or issues Trump has chosen to focus on.
But there is more to it. Conservative voters tend to take a much more nuanced approach. LPC and NDP voters tend to outright disagree with what and how Trump is leading. While CPC voters, are more likely to protest the how, but not the what.
Conservative voters also varies widely from issue to issue. Some actions by Trump are downright unacceptable (like the rest of Canadians they don’t like what’s happened on tariffs). But others, like negotiations with Ukraine and Russia (or at least the premise of conversations) is reasonable for many Conservative voters. Disagreeing with everything Trump says and does will be a difficult stance for the Conservative party to take.
There are also some issues where the predominant view is ‘I like this, just not how he’s doing it’. Things like the Ukrainian Russian war, DOGE and USAID pauses fall somewhere in this realm. This can be a particularly challenging place for a Conservative leader who is being asked to steer a similar course (on some issues) but take a different approach. Figuring out how to give their voters the same outcome but with a different approach (which approach is an entirely different question) is also a challenge for the Conservatives.
And finally, for other issues, there’s a clear disagreement within the current voter base about what the right thing is at all. Take USAID for example. Conservative voters are split precisely three ways: 30% like it, 36% like it but not how it’s been done, and 34% don’t like it at all. For some issues like this, no matter the stance, two thirds of voters will be put off.
Finding 3: These challenges have the potential to divide the Conservative base much more than the Liberals.
Introducing a ‘type of Conservative voter’ variable also makes things more complicated for the Conservatives. With current vote changing so sharply, I created a new variable that measures their loyalty to a particular party over their voting lifetime, rather than just a moment in time (today, or the last time they cast a ballot). This creates a number of categories, two of which we will dive into here: those who always vote CPC and those who sometimes vote CPC.
Some good news for the Conservatives is that these two groups agree on tariffs; more often than not, they don’t like them. But there are other points of tension.
There is moderate disagreement on DOGE and the Ukraine and Russia conversations. Those who always vote CPC are inclined to say they like both the stance and the approach. While those who sometimes vote Conservative like the idea, just not the approach.
There are others however, that come with much greater dissent in opinion. On USAID, the most common view of ‘always Conservative’ voters is that they like this and how it’s been done. The majority of ‘sometimes’ voters don’t like it at all.
The same is true for banning trans athletes from participating in women’s sports. The majority of ‘always Conservative’ voters like this and how it’s been done, while the most common view among the ‘sometimes Conservative’ voters is that they don’t like this idea at all.
Satisfying both the base and the ‘sometimes’ voters on Trump issues will be a difficult balance for the Conservatives.
The Upshot
Whether it’s a ballot box question or not, what’s happening in the south is influencing Canada- including the Conservative party’s voter base. Figuring out how to respond to what is happening down South, and directly up to Canada will be a challenge for all political leaders in the coming months.
Still, there are opportunities for any leaders and an open question as to who becomes the Prime Minister Canadians are hoping to see during this time.
When it comes down to it, more often than not Canadians want a Prime Minister that works to find common ground with President Trump (61%), and not make him an enemy (39%).
This is what all Conservative voters agree on: 71% among ‘always Conservative’ voters, and 66% among ‘sometimes Conservative’ voters.
But it’s what divides the Liberals: 53% among ‘always Liberal’ voters, and 60% among ‘sometimes Liberal’ voters.
For those that sometimes vote Liberal and sometimes vote Conservative, 60% want our Prime Minister to find common ground.
In some past research we’ve done Poilievre is also best positioned to fill the role of finding common ground (Canadians are more inclined to say he and Trump can agree on things and work together), but as the relationship between the two countries evolves (and an election on the horizon) there are opportunities for any federal leader to show Canadians how they can navigate the Canada-US relationship through these tense times.both contain the everyday pressures at home and confront the potential tumult brewing beyond our borders.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,701 Canadians aged 18 and over from March 10 to 12, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set partner panel based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.39%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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