The Changing Landscape of Grocery Shopping in Canada
June 13, 2025
Between April 16 and 21, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,920 Canadian adults (18+) to explore how rising costs, international trade tensions, and broader economic concerns are shaping grocery shopping behaviors. Grocery shopping in Canada has shifted from a routine task to a delicate balancing act. Canadians are now more focused on stretching their dollars and making strategic purchasing decisions, driven by the uncertainties of inflation, international trade tensions, and the rising cost of living. This shift reflects a broader societal trend: the rise of the precarity mindset. More than just reacting to short-term pressures, this mindset signals long-term changes in how Canadians think about money, consumption, and their financial security.
International Trade Tensions and the Growing Concern Over Grocery Prices
A major factor driving the shift toward cautious spending is concern over international trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. 70% of Canadians are worried that these tensions, such as U.S. tariffs, will cause further increases in grocery prices over the next six months. This reflects a broader sense of financial insecurity that many Canadians are grappling with, as they face growing uncertainty about their ability to manage future expenses.
In line with these concerns, 61% of Canadians lack confidence in their ability to afford groceries six months from now. This uncertainty is especially pronounced among those with household incomes under $50,000, with 73% of this group worried they won’t be able to afford the groceries they need if prices continue to rise. This highlights the growing financial strain felt by many, especially lower-income Canadians, underscoring the need for strategies that address both rising costs and the uncertainty surrounding future affordability.
Cautious Consumption and Strategic Shopping
As the cost of living continues to impact the lives of Canadians, many are adopting more cautious consumption habits, driven by the precarity mindset. 83% of Canadians are now more careful about what they buy, reflecting a growing sense of uncertainty about the future. 81% of consumers are planning their meals around sales and discounts, while 76% are avoiding premium or non-essential items, even if they once enjoyed them.
In terms of priorities, Canadians are increasingly focused on essentials. 56% are now primarily concerned with getting the most value for their money, a shift that has led many to forgo luxury items. For example, 35% have stopped purchasing “nice-to-have” items, instead focusing on affordable, value-driven products.
Income plays a significant role in how Canadians are adjusting their shopping behaviors. Those with household incomes under $50,000 are particularly vulnerable to rising food costs, with 59% focused on maximizing value with every purchase. These households are more likely to stop buying non-essential items (44%) and prioritize affordability, choosing products that fill them up (41%).
Mindful and Strategic Choices
The shift toward cautious consumption is not just about cutting back—it’s about becoming more strategic and disciplined in how Canadians approach food shopping. 32% of Canadians are now making more methodical, strategic decisions when it comes to food purchases, with 33% aligning their shopping habits with what truly matters to them. However, income plays a significant role in how this shift manifests.
Those with a household income less than $50,000 are more focused on just getting through the week, with 26% trying to make it to the next payday and 24% prioritizing affordability over preferences. In contrast, those with a household income of $100,000 or more are more likely to make mindful choices that reflect their values (38%) and become more strategic in their food purchases (36%). This income-driven split shows how cautious consumption varies based on financial reality.
As a result, many consumers are leaning more toward store brands and discount products. 42% of Canadians are now purchasing more store-brand or discount items, and 39% are using coupons, flyers, or loyalty points to stretch their grocery budgets further. In fact, 36% have even switched to more affordable grocery stores in response to rising prices. This shift also extends to cutting back on non-essential items, with 43% reducing their purchases of snacks and treats, 37% cutting down on convenience foods, and 34% forgoing premium items altogether.
The Long-Term Shift in Consumer Mindsets
While some Canadians may view these changes as short-term responses to current economic conditions, there is growing evidence that these shifts represent a long-term change in consumer behavior. 34% of Canadians believe their cautious spending is a mix of short-term responses and longer-term shifts in how they approach money and consumption. Interestingly, 23% of Canadians think their habits will persist even if prices decrease, signaling that the impact of the precarity mindset will likely endure.
If grocery budgets were to loosen, 37% of Canadians would still shop carefully, demonstrating that their cautious, value-driven approach to shopping is likely to remain. Even if financial constraints ease, many Canadians have become so accustomed to their new frugality that they would continue to prioritize strategic choices based on what matters most to them, whether that’s healthier food options or lower-priced essentials.
The Upshot
The shift toward cautious consumption, driven by the precarity mindset, presents both challenges and opportunities for grocers and brands. As Canadians become more strategic and mindful in their shopping habits, they are increasingly focused on balancing value, quality, and affordability. This shift reflects a broader change in consumer priorities, one that values long-term sustainability and financial security over immediate gratification.
For grocers and brands, this means moving beyond traditional discounting strategies and instead emphasizing value-driven offerings. Consumers are looking for products that deliver more than just a low price, they want transparency in pricing, consistent quality, and products that align with their evolving needs. Grocers that can offer high-quality store brands and affordable options will be better positioned to build long-term trust and customer loyalty.
Moreover, the precarity mindset is not a temporary reaction but a profound shift in how consumers approach spending. Even as financial pressures ease, many Canadians are likely to retain their focus on mindful, strategic shopping. For brands, this means the traditional models of marketing based solely on discounts or premium products may no longer suffice. Brands will need to demonstrate how they add value beyond just the price tag, whether through product durability, ethical or local sourcing, or added benefits that justify their price.
Ultimately, grocers and brands that understand and adapt to this evolving consumer mindset will be better equipped to thrive in a landscape defined by caution, conscious consumption, and long-term value. By staying attuned to the changing needs of the consumer, the grocery sector can build stronger, longer-lasting relationships with Canadians in an era of economic uncertainty.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,920 Canadian adults from April 16 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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