Potential Municipal Land Transfer Tax Faces Backlash as Hamilton Struggles with Housing Affordability
January 14, 2025
Between October 17 and 28, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey involving 502 Hamiltonians (18+) to explore their views on housing affordability, accessibility, and the potential impact of a municipal land transfer tax. Commissioned by the Cornerstone Association of Realtors (CAR), the survey aimed to gauge the concerns of Hamiltonians as they relate to these critical issues and assess the potential effects of introducing a municipal land transfer tax.
As housing affordability concerns grow in Hamilton, the findings highlight residents’ strong opposition to the proposed municipal land transfer tax, fearing it will exacerbate the challenges of homeownership. There is clear demand for policies that improve affordability, with limited support for measures that could further hinder access to housing, including the introduction of new taxes.
Challenges Facing Hamiltonians Today
Housing accessibility and affordability dominate the concerns of Hamilton residents, with 62% identifying it as the top issue, closely followed by the rising cost of living (58%). Reflecting this dissatisfaction, 67% of residents believe the city is headed in the wrong direction, while only 11% feel optimistic about the city’s trajectory. These figures underscore the mounting pressures on the local government to address critical housing and financial challenges.


Perceptions of the Housing Market
The current housing market in Hamilton is widely seen as unaffordable, with 84% of residents believing that housing is unaffordable. Concern about affordability is widespread, with 89% of residents expressing worry, particularly among younger age groups (97% of those aged 30-44 and 95% of those aged 18-29). This highlights the urgent need for policies that address these issues and ensure accessible, sustainable housing for all Hamiltonians, particularly younger generations.


Taxes and fees on home purchases (e.g., land transfer tax; 64%) are cited as the most critical factor impacting affordability, followed by foreign investors (47%) and the availability and cost of land (45%), highlighting key areas that need attention in any discussions about solving Hamilton’s housing challenges.

Opposition to a Municipal Land Transfer Tax
The potential implementation of a municipal land transfer tax faces strong opposition in Hamilton, with 54% of residents against the idea and only 10% in support. Among those looking to purchase a home, 67% believe the tax would hinder their ability to do so. Residents also feel that first-time buyers (71%) and low-income families (70%) would be the most impacted, with renters also at risk of higher rents (50%).



Many believe the tax would make housing less affordable (57%) and disproportionately burden first-time buyers and low-income residents (50%). In fact, 74% think the tax would worsen affordability, while only 11% believe it would improve the situation. These findings underscore the widespread concerns about the tax’s potential negative effects on housing accessibility in Hamilton.


Political Risks of the Municipal Land Transfer Tax
The proposed municipal land transfer tax poses significant political risks at the local level. Half of Hamiltonians note that it would harm their view of Mayor Horwath, while 57% feel the same about city councilors. This backlash underscores the potential political fallout for municipal leaders if the municipal land transfer tax is implemented.


At the provincial level, 56% say it would damage their impression of Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party (PCP) if they gave the authority to introduce a land transfer tax. Moreover, 54% would be less likely to vote for the PCP if the tax is allowed, including 34% of current PCP supporters. These findings highlight the considerable political fallout for both municipal and provincial leaders.


These figures underscore the political risks associated with implementing the tax, particularly as public dissatisfaction grows with government efforts to address housing affordability.
Importance of Political Accountability and Transparency
A strong majority of residents (70%) believe it is important to know where political leaders and parties stand on the municipal land transfer tax before the next provincial election. This demand for transparency reflects a broader call for accountability and clear communication on housing policies. With housing affordability emerging as a critical political issue, residents expect detailed explanations of proposed solutions and their implications. The municipal land transfer tax risks becoming a defining issue for leadership at all levels of government, making transparency and responsiveness crucial to rebuilding public trust and shaping voter perceptions.

The Upshot
The potential implementation of a municipal land transfer tax has drawn strong opposition from Hamilton residents, primarily due to concerns about its impact on affordability and accessibility. While exemptions for first-time buyers and homes below a certain threshold may address some worries, the tax would disproportionately affect family-sized homes—often sought by young families already under significant financial pressure. Recent data from an Abacus poll highlights the broader toll of the housing crisis on young Canadians, revealing that many are delaying starting families, struggling to cover bills and expenses, and reconsidering their living situations. With home prices at record highs and affordability challenges worsening, residents view this tax as yet another obstacle to achieving homeownership. For young families in particular, a municipal land transfer tax would intensify financial burdens and deepen concerns about their ability to access suitable housing in Hamilton.
Politically, the tax could have serious implications for public trust. Many residents view it as a poorly targeted measure that worsens affordability instead of addressing root causes, potentially eroding confidence in local and provincial leaders. Mayor Horwath, city councilors, and Premier Doug Ford could face backlash as voters hold them accountable for exacerbating the housing crisis and express frustration with policies they see as disconnected from their needs. With elections on the horizon, the tax could influence voter decisions, making affordability a key issue for political accountability.
For politicians, addressing housing affordability goes beyond economics—it’s a matter of trust and accountability. Hamilton residents are looking for leaders who will focus on solutions that directly tackle the root causes of unaffordability, not policies that create additional financial burdens. The potential impact of the land transfer tax could extend well beyond the housing market, eroding voter confidence and affecting the political landscape. The need for transparent, effective policies to address the housing crisis is critical. By prioritizing measures that reduce barriers to homeownership and improve affordability, leaders can rebuild trust and take meaningful steps toward resolving the crisis. However, the proposed land transfer tax risks undermining both affordability and the public’s confidence in those tasked with resolving the crisis.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 502 Canadian adults aged 18+ from Hamilton from October 17 to 28, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.37 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Hamilton’s population according to age, gender, and educational attainment.
This survey was paid for by the Cornerstone Association of Realtors.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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