What Policy Ideas Attract and Repel Canadian Voters? A look at the “Third Rails” of Canadian Politics
August 18, 2024
What are the “third rail” policy issues of Canadian politics?
The “third rail” of politics refers to a controversial issue that is so politically charged and potentially damaging that touching it can result in severe political consequences, much like the dangerous third rail on a subway track that carries a lethal electric charge.
The phrase “third rail” of politics is often attributed to Tip O’Neill, a former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. He is said to have used it to describe Social Security, implying that any politician who attempted to alter the program would suffer severe political consequences. While the exact origins are not definitively documented, O’Neill’s usage popularized the metaphor.
As Canada’s political parties prepare their election platforms, and advocacy organizations look to influence the agenda and the issue, I thought it might be useful to understand what are the “third rail” issues in Canadian politics.
So on one of our national omnibus surveys in July, I asked Canadians whether a list of policy ideas would make them vote for or against a political party who promised the idea. Specifically, we asked
“In this question, we want you to think about policies that a political party could announce that would completely rule out you voting for that party, EVEN if you like the party’s other policies. For each of the following policies, please indicate if you would vote for the party proposing that policy.”
Respondents could respond one of four ways: They would definitely vote for the party, they might vote for the party, they never vote for that party, or they don’t know.
We included several ideas that may never be proposed but we wanted to test ideas that some would find controversal and others might find appealing.
The full list of policy ideas test are:
Increase income taxes for the richest 1% of Canadians
Make public transit free in every Canadian city
Make university and college free for all Canadian students
Eliminate the federal carbon tax
Force religious organizations to pay taxes
Abolish the monarchy and establish a republic
Eliminate all government funding to the CBC
Expand the use of nuclear energy
Bring back the dealth penalty
Allow people to pay to access most healthcare procedures
Add new taxes on sugary beverages
Abolish official bilingualism in Canada
Tax the profit people make when they sell their primary residence
Criminalize abortion
Introduce mandatory military service for everyone aged 18 to 20
Raise the eligibility age for retirement benefits like CPP & OAS
Legalize the use of all drugs, including hard drugs like heroin and cocaine
Let’s dig into the results
What Pushes and Pulls Voters?
We categorized the policy ideas into three groups:
Vote Winners – Ideas where more people say they would definitely vote for a party that promised it than said they would never vote for that party.
Neutral – Ideas where the push and pull are about equal
Vote Losers – Ideas where those who say they would never vote for a party that promised it clearly outnumbered those who would definitely vote for a party that promised it.
In the vote winner category, raising taxes on the richest 1%, making public transit free in every Canadian city, make university and college free for all Canadian students, eliminating the federal carbon tax, and forcing religious organizations to pay taxes all had far more Canadians indicate they would definitely vote for a party that promised those ideas than those who would never vote for the party.
In the neutral category, abolishing the monarchy, eliminating funding to the CBC, expanding the role of nuclear energy, and bringing back the death penalty all had about equal numbers of Canadians who would definitely vote for a party that promised those and Canadians who would never support a party that did. There was also a sizeable number of people who said they might vote for a party that promised the ideas or were unsure.
Vote losers, or issues we consider “third rail” issues, include legalizing the use of all drugs, raising the eligibility age for retirement benefits, mandatory military service, criminalizing abortion, taxing the profit people make when they sell their primary residence, and abolishing official bilingualism. New taxes on sugary beverages and allowing people to pay to access most healthcare procedures were on the edge but far more would never vote for a party that promised those than definitely would.
Four items in particular – legalizing all drugs, raising the retirement age, mandatory military service, and criminalizing abortion – all had a clear majority saying they would never vote for a party that promised them.
The chart below reports the data into quadrants and shows the group of vote losers compared to the group of vote winners.
Left vs. Right: How do Canadians on either end of the specrtum compare?
As expected, voters on the left and right of the political spectrum react differently to the policy ideas.
The chart below maps the issues based on the percentage of Canadians who self-identify on the right of the spectrum who would never vote for a party that promised the idea against the percentage of Canadians on the left who would never vote for the idea.
Items in the top left repel right-wingers more than left-wingers. Items in the bottom right repel left-wingers more than those on the right, while items in the top right repel both left- and right-wingers equally. Items in the bottom left don’t repel either very much.
What this tell us is that new sugar taxes, for example, are more repelling to those on the right, while the death penalty, defunding the CBC, abolishing bilingualism, eliminating the carbon tax, and paying for health procedures repels the left far more than the right.
Legalizing drugs, taxing gains on primary residences, raising the retirement age, and mandatory military service repels both left and right equally.
The Partisan Drivers: What are “third rails” for Conservative and Liberal voters?
Digging even deeper, when we isolate for Canadians currently supporting the Conservative Party, we find that the biggest losers for them are legalizing all drugs, raising the retirement age, criminalizing abortion, and taxing gains on primary residences. This shows just how risky the abortion issue for Conservatives and the prospect that a Poilievre government might raise the retirement age (which it has not proposed doing).
On the flip side, eliminating the carbon tax is a big winner, alientating only a very small minority of current Conservative supporters. Interestingly, there is fairly wide support for increasing taxes on the top 1% and forcing religious organizations to pay taxes – ideas we would might not normally think are favoured by Conservative-oriented people.
Although Pierre Poilievre has promised to defund English CBC, there could be some risk in that policy if more people become aware of it. 1 in 5 Conservative supporters say they would never vote for a party that promised to eliminate government funding to the CBC, which is not exactly what Poilievre is promising to do but could be perceived that way.
This analysis highlights both the opportunities and risks for the Conservatives as they try to hold onto their new support (our latest poll has them leading by 20-points over the Liberals).
When we look at the 39% of Canadians open to voting Liberal – the audience the Liberals need to convert if they have any chance of winning again – the main “third rails” are criminalizing abortion, abolishing official bilingualism, raising the retirement age, and introducing mandatory military service. These are all issues that the Liberals might use (or haved used) against the Conservatives if they want to pull voters away from the Conservatives or consolidate progressives around them.
Legalizing all drugs is also a “third rail” policy idea for Liberal supporters which explains why the Conservatives have used this issue to try and wedge voters against the Liberal drug policy (which is not to legalize all drugs).
Ideas that pull large numbers of people towards the Liberals could be increasing taxes on the top 1% – although they tried to do this with the captial gains tax changes without much effect. Making public transit free and eliminating tuition fees are other issues that would attract a lot of voters without must risk of alienting accessible Liberals.
Digging Deeper: Looking at Specific Policy Ideas
This section explores several of the issues we tested, looking at the demographic and political dynamics behind them.
Criminalizing Abortion
64% of Canadians say they would never vote for a political party that promised to criminalize abortion, including 56% of those currently supporting the Conservative Party. A majority of both men and women are repelled by this idea, although there is a 13-point difference between men (57%) and women (70%).
Allow People to Pay to Access Most Healthcare Procedures
Changing Canada’s single-payer healthcare system has often been considered a “third rail” of Canadian politics, but the results suggest that’s not true for everyone. Almost 4 in 10 Canadians say they would never vote for a party that promised to do this but 19% say they would definitely vote for a party would would. Another 30% say they might – suggesting a degree of openness to the idea.
Younger Canadians are less repelled by the idea than older Canadians as are men compared with women. Paying for healthcare procedures is certaintly a third rail issue for women, but not so for men. Conservative supporters are also more open to it but even there, about 3 in 10 say they would never for vote a party that promises to do this.
These dynamics – the cross-partisan, cross-demographic opposition to the idea – likely means it is too politically risky to propose and advocate for.
Eliminating the Federal Carbon Tax
Only 19% of Canadians say they would never vote for a party that promised to eliminate the carbon tax. 37% say they definitely would vote for the a party that promised to do this.
Not surprising, Conservatives overwhelmingly love this idea while Liberals and BQ supporters are the most against it, although it’s not a concensus. Interestingly, NDP supporters are the most divided. 27% say they would never vote for a party that promised to eliminate the carbon tax while 25% say they definitely would vote for such a party. The rest are either unsure or say they might vote for that party.
This data confirms that eliminating the carbon tax has become a vote winner for the Conservatives and a real liability for the Liberals.
Raise the Eligibility Age for Receiving Retirement Benefits, such as Old Age Security and the Canada Pension Plan to 70
Raising the retirement age is another “third rail” of Canadian politics. Similar to Tip O’Neil’s warning about anyone touching Social Security in the US. 56% of Canadians say they would never vote for a party that promised to do this including 54% of Conservative supporters, 59% of Liberal supporters, and 61% of NDP supporters. Older Canadians are particularly repelled by the idea with 2 in 3 saying they would never vote for a party that promised this (or maybe even they thought might do it). Younger Canadians (under 36) are far more open to it – although 36% still say it’s a no-go for them.
Legalize the Use of All Drugs, Including Hard Drugs like Heroin and Cocaine
The biggest “third rail” issue in this study appears to be the idea of legalizing all drugs. This is different than decriminalization (although I’m not convinced people understand the difference). 68% of Canadians say they would never vote for a party that promised (and thereby they think might) to do this. Only 8% say they would definitely vote for that party.
78% of Conservative supporters, 65% of Liberal supporters, and 50% of NDP supporters say they would never vote for a party that promised this idea. There is also fairly wide cross-generational and gender agreement that this is a no-go for people.
The Upshot
As we approach the next federal election in Canada, the findings of our study underscore the critical importance of perception in shaping voter behaviour. Even if a political party does not formally propose certain policies, the mere perception that it might or could introduce such ideas can profoundly impact voter decisions. This dynamic is crucial for the main political parties as they strategize for the coming election.
For the Liberal Party, issues like raising the retirement age, criminalizing abortion, or defunding the CBC could serve as potent tools to re-engage their base or at least sway uncommitted voters away from the Conservative Party. By highlighting these issues, the Liberals could create a narrative that paints the Conservatives as a threat on these “third rails”, thereby rallying their supporters and softening the Conservative appeal to those new to the Conservative universe.
On the other hand, the Conservatives have clearly been successful with issues like the carbon tax, which not only energizes their voter base but also creates division among Liberal and NDP supporters. Additionally, drug policy emerges as another area where the Conservatives can both mobilize their own base and potentially weaken the voter coalitions of the Bloc Québécois, Liberals, and NDP. The perception that the Liberals might consider taxing gains on primary residences—whether true or not—illustrates how powerful these perceptions can be as wedge issues in the election campaign.
This exercise also tested ideas that, while not currently proposed by any mainstream party, help us understand how political dynamics and opinions might interact as voters make their decisions. The findings highlight potential wedge issues such as taxing religious organizations, abolishing the monarchy, or defunding the CBC—topics that could provoke strong reactions and influence voter behaviour.
Moreover, the data confirms that policies focused on taxing the rich and making life more affordable remain popular and effective “products” during a campaign.
I think this study is valuable in helping us to understand first, what are some “third rail” issues in Canadian politics but also how other issues could be used to shape the narrative and voter behaviour both federally and provincially. Political managers and public affairs professionals can benefit from digging deeper into perceptions like these to understand how to engage and mobilize the public.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.191%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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