On behalf of The Canadian Lung Association, Abacus Data conducted an online nationwide survey of Canadians’ views on air quality and its relationship to emissions and climate change. The sample size of the survey is n=2,200 adult Canadians, fielded October 27th to November 1st, 2023. The data was weighted to match Canada’s population by age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
In 2023, half of Canadians reported that outdoor air quality is having an increased impact on their daily lives, with more than a third reporting direct impact on their health.
52% of Canadians say air quality is having a bigger impact on the decisions they make in their daily lives. Impact is similar across the country- with young people in Canada feeling the biggest consequences on their daily lives.
36% of Canadians say climate change is directly impacting their health because of the worsening air pollution associated with climate change. This is a 6-point increase from 2021. Additionally, 48% are concerned about the impacts of air quality from climate change on future generations. Health concerns are felt across the country but most acutely in BC, Ontario, and Quebec.
2023 was Canada’s worst year for wildfires- by September over 6,000 wildfires were reported with hectares burned sailing past previous records. A reminder that this survey was fielded a few months after the worst of the season when relatively few Canadians were actively experiencing poor air quality due to wildfire smoke. Yet, the wildfire experiences of this summer have clearly left an impression on Canadians. Compared to 2021 we see a significant increase in concerns about air quality outdoors.
68% of Canadians are concerned about the quality of air outdoors – an 18-point increase from 2021. This includes 27% who say they are very concerned. Concern is high across the country and isn’t just concentrated to those living in urban areas or near forest fires- those in Ontario express the greatest level of concern (perhaps many of them experiencing the effects of wildfires on air quality for the first time).
64% of Canadians say in the last year they’ve noticed a bigger impact on their health from worsening air quality related to climate change events like wildfires- 21% strongly agree.
For Canadians living with a lung condition- these effects are even greater.
Two-thirds of Canadians living with a lung condition say air quality is having a bigger impact on the decisions they make in their daily lives- 12 points higher than Canadians overall. Among those with a lung condition, 73% say they’ve noticed a bigger impact on their health from worsening air quality related to climate change events.
Given the increased focus on air quality in the last year, Canadians are eager to see climate change solutions that focus on air quality and health.
When addressing climate change, 84% want climate change solutions that focus on air quality to be a priority– 32% strongly agree. A majority of Canadians across the country, in all age groups and voters of all major political parties support this focus.
UPSHOT
As we near the end of 2023 and reflect on the past year, we can see that the wildfires earlier this year were a focusing event for concern about air quality related to climate change. We see a significant increase in concern for outdoor air quality, overall, even after fires have subsided.
A majority of Canadians are closing out the year feeling as though air quality is having a greater impact on their lives- from their health to the choices they make on a day-to-day basis. Going forward, Canadians want to see a greater focus on climate change solutions that address air quality.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
A few weeks ago, we partnered with the Indigenous Leadership Initiative to gauge Canadians’ support for innovative Indigenous stewardship programs through an in-depth survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (fielded October 24th to 27th, 2023).
Indigenous Guardians are trained experts who care for lands and waters on behalf of their First Nations. They test water quality, manage protected areas, restore species at risk, monitor development projects, and support language and culture programs. There are more than 160 First Nations Guardians programs now operating across Canada. You can learn more here.
We ran a survey where we introduced Canadians to these Guardians programs, and asked them to tell us how they felt about their work and federal funding for their programs. In short, Canadians are on board. 3 in 4 Canadians support Guardians programs after reading a description of them, and an equal proportion support the federal government investing in Guardians programs to fulfil their functions. Support for both Indigenous Guardians and federal funding is decidedly cross partisan.
Canadians see Guardians programs as a cost-effective solution to some big challenges. It’s clear that even in the current economic context, Canadians remain highly concerned about climate change and the need to conserve nature.
David Coletto, Chair & CEO Abacus Data
It’s not hard to see why. Most Canadians are acutely aware of climate change’s impacts, from increased wildfires and flooding to landslides and destruction of animal habitats and communities. They see Indigenous Guardians playing a helpful role in grappling with these challenges.
When Indigenous Guardians’ functions are presented to Canadians, ~8 in 10 view the functions as important, from testing water quality (84%) and managing protected nature and wildlife areas (84%) to advising on emergency response tactics (81%).
And they understand both the urgency and logic of investing in Indigenous Guardians. 7 in 10 agree:
Climate change and its effect on our northern boreal forests is only going to get worse (69%)
Federal government departments are not always best placed and nor do they have enough staff in locations to do this necessary climate mitigation work (71%)
Having Indigenous Peoples and their Nations performing these land management functions is most cost-effective approach (69%)
Indigenous Nations are best suited to lead conservation and stewardship initiatives in their territories as they are more deeply integrated with the land (67%).
For these reasons and more, Canadians prefer Indigenous Guardians led conservation over having federal departments spend money on more staff. Our survey found that 7 in 10 Canadians prefer leveraging Indigenous Guardians programs to add more northern coverage, over having the federal government hire more conservation officers.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “Canadians see Guardians programs as a cost-effective solution to some big challenges. It’s clear that even in the current economic context, Canadians remain highly concerned about climate change and the need to conserve nature. And crucially in this affordability crisis, the public views Guardians as an economical and responsible way to address conservation, reconciliation, and climate change. To that end, its clear that how Canadian ratepayers feel about these programs is stronger than just support for the work. They are on board with putting federal funding towards these initiatives, seeing a prudent way to spend tax dollars on the challenges we collectively face.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from October 24 to 29, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
From November 15 to 22 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,450 adults that asked Canadians how they would vote if an election was held at the time of the survey as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share results of that survey and take advantage of the large sample size to explore demographic, regional, and socio-economic factors correlated with vote in more detail than usual.
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 39% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives down 2, the NDP up 1, and the Liberals down 1.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 8 in Atlantic Canada and 14 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the BQ ahead of the Liberals by 7 with the Conservatives another 8-points behind the Liberals.
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives hold a 21-point lead over both the Liberals and the NDP. The Liberals and NDP are tied at 23% outside of Quebec.
In Ontario, the Conservatives are numerically ahead in every region. They lead the Liberals by 3 in Metro Toronto, by 13 in the Greater Toronto/Hamilton Area (postal codes start with L), by 13 in Eastern Ontario, and by 32 in Southwestern Ontario. Note, due to a smaller sample size in Northern Ontario, we didn’t report the results.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 5 among 18 to 29 year olds, 17 among 30 to 44 year olds, 19 among 45 to 59 year olds and 15 among those aged 60 and over.
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The Conservatives lead by 18 among men and 11 among women.
The Conservatives also lead among those with all levels of education. They are ahead by 15 among those with high school or less, 21 among those with a college degree or apprenticeships, and 9 among those with a university education.
The Conservative lead by almost 20 points among homeowners but also lead among those who rent or live with family.
Among employed Canadians, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 10 among those members of a private sector union, 6 among public sector union members, and 18 among employed Canadians not members of a union.
Today vs. November 2022
Comparing vote intention today across regional, demographic, and socio-economic variables shows the Conservatives have made significant gains across the country and across groups.
Some of the biggest gains for the Conservatives are among or in:
Atlantic Canada: +11
Private sector unions: +7
30 to 44 year olds: +5
Ontario: +5
For the Liberals, the biggest drop in support happened among or in:
Atlantic Canada: -13
30 to 44 year olds: -9
College educated: -9
University education: -8
Ontario: -8
Women: -7
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “It appears that the political opinions have stablized for now with the Conservatives holding a double digit lead since July. This lead is broad-based and crosses several demographic, regional, and socio-economic subgroups.
The Liberal vote has dropped another point to 24%, the lowest in our tracking since 2015 while the NDP vote is up to 20%. Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 23%. The gap between the Liberald and NDP – a symbolically important gap – has closed from 10 points in July to 4 points today.
The survey was conducted with 3,450 Canadian adults from November 15 to 22, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Conservative insiders are trying to boost Pierre Poilievre’s image. A new poll suggests their plan may be working. More Canadians know Poilievre and like him than did this past July, an Abacus Data survey provided exclusively to the Star shows.
Abacus Data CEO David Coletto joins the podcast to explain MRP polling, a technique that he says is a “game changer” hat will allow pollsters to better predict what Canadians think, and how they will vote, at a local level.
This summer, we partnered with the Toronto Star to explore how Canadians feel about Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. In July, we conducted a benchmark survey that looked at what Canadians felt they knew about Mr. Poilievre, how they felt about him, and how they would described.
Our intent was to re-ask the same questions months later to understand how the Conservative Party’s efforts to introduce and re-introduce its leader impacted public familiarity and impressions of him. In essence, we designed a pre- and post- study design, something we do often with clients who are planning to go in market to shift public opinion.
The results of this post-survey are based on a national representative survey of 2,000 Canadian adults conducted from November 9 to 12, 2023.
Key Findings:
Increased Familiarity and Visibility: There has been a significant increase in the number of Canadians who are familiar with Mr. Poilievre. Compared to July, there’s a 7-point increase in those who say they know him well, equivalent to about 2.1 million Canadian adults. This increase in familiarity is consistent across different regions and age groups, indicating the effectiveness of the Conservative Party’s efforts to raise his profile.
Improvement in Positive Impressions: Mr. Poilievre’s positive impressions among Canadians have increased. Now, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, with an increase in favorable views from various demographics, including past Conservative, Liberal, and NDP voters. His favorability is higher compared to the previous Conservative leaders at similar points in their tenure and he is currently the most popular federal party leader.
Perception of Personality and Ideas: The public’s view of Mr. Poilievre’s personality and ideas has also evolved positively. More people now perceive him as moderate, compassionate, and down-to-earth. A majority of those who feel they know him well view him as genuine, strong, and compassionate.
Some Clarity on Political Stance and Potential Impact as Prime Minister: There’s an increase in the number of Canadians who feel they have a good understanding of what Mr. Poilievre and the Conservative Party would do if elected. This is reflected in the fact that 26% of respondents have a very good sense of his and the party’s plans, with another 34% having a fairly good sense. Additionally, there’s an increase in the percentage of people who would be happy or pleased if Mr. Poilievre became the Prime Minister, indicating a shift in public opinion and potential impact on future elections.
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Here’s a detailed look at what we found.
Those who think they know Mr. Poilievre very or pretty well has increased by 7-points since July.
The efforts by the Conservative Party to increase the profile of Mr. Poilievre have paid significant dividends already. Today, 62% of Canadians say they know Mr. Poilievre very or pretty well, a 7-point increased from July. That’s the equilavent of 2.1 million Canadian adults who know feel they know the Conservative leader better than they did in the summer.
Compared with other federal leaders, Mr. Poilievre is certainly better known, but still trails both Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Singh in the proportion of those who have a good sense of who the leader is.
Familiarity with Mr. Poilievre has increased across the board, from a 10-point increase in BC and among those aged 18 to 29 to a 4-point increase in Quebec. About equal numbers of men and women now feel more familiar with him.
Impression have Mr. Poilievre have become more positive over this period.
Today, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre while 33% have a negative impression. 21% say they have a neutral impression while 8% don’t know much about it. Compared to July, his favourables are up 6, negatives up 2, and those who don’t know enough to say are down 2.
When we compared how people feel about Mr. Poilievre with how Canadians felt about the previous two leaders at this junction in their leadership, Mr. Poilievre is as known as Mr. O’Toole was following the 2021 election campaign and substantially more well know and defined that Mr. Scheer was at the same point in his leader.
Comparatively speaking, Mr. Poilievre is now the most popular federal party leader with more having a favourable view of him than any other leader, including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
When we look how different groups have responded to Mr. Poilievre, we find that positive impressions have increased most in Ontario (+9), BC (+7), and Atlantic Canada (+5). They have also increased by double digits among those aged 60 and over (+10). He’s seen a 7-point increase in favourable impressions among women and +5 among men.
Across past party voters, his favourables among past Conservative voters are up 8, +7 among past Liberal voters, and +3 among NDP supporters. Today, 21% of past Liberal voters, 14% of past NDP supporters, and 48% of past People’s Party voters have a favourable view of the Conservative leader.
We also wanted to better understand what people like and dislike about Pierre Poilievre. Today, 33% say they like both his personality and ideas (up 6 since July), 11% like his ideas but not his personality (up 1), 7% like his personality but dislike his ideas (up 1) and 28% dislike both his ideas and his personality (down 2). 21% continue to say they don’t know enough about him to say (down 6 from July).
Digging deeper, we also show people words that could be used to describe Mr. Poilievre. Overall, we find more people use positive words to describe him than in July. The biggest shift is those who think he is moderate rather than extreme (+5), compassionate rather than uncaring (+4), and down to earth rather than elitist (+5).
Among those who say they feel they know Mr. Poilievre well, a majority or close to a majority view him as geniune rather than phoney, stronger rather than week, compassionate rather than caring, and down to earth rather than elitist. Many are not sure whether he is either forgiving or vengeful and about equal numbers see him as extreme rather than moderate.
We also tracked whether people feel they have a good sense of what Poilievre and the Conservatives would do if they should win the next election. Keep in mind, far more Canadians today believe the Conservatives will win the next election than those who think the Liberals will win.
Overall, 26% say they have a very good sense of what he and the party would do if elected, that’s up 3-points. Another 34% think they have a fairly good sense of what they do, up 3 as well. Those who say they don’t know what they would do if elected account for 22% of the public and that’s down 4-points since July.
Among those who want a change in government and feel there is a good alternative out there, 68% signal they have at least a pretty good idea what a Poilievre-led government would do, up 3 points since July.
Finally, when asked how they would react if Poilievre became Prime Minister after the next election, 39% say they would be very happy or pleased, up 6 points since July while those who would be disappointed or very unhappy (31%) has dropped by 5-points.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “This pre-/post- study finds a clear shift in public perceptions and impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Familiarity and positive impressions of the Conservative leader have materially changed over the past several months.
This uptick is a clear testament to the success of the Conservative Party’s strategic efforts to elevate Mr. Poilievre’s profile through targeted advertising and campaign-like events. These initiatives have not only enhanced his visibility but have also positively influenced the public’s perception of him. The increase in the number of Canadians who feel they know him well, coupled with a rise in positive impressions, suggests that these marketing strategies are indeed paying dividends. The data shows that Mr. Poilievre is now more well-known and favorably viewed than his predecessors at similar points in their leadership (even after a national election campaign), and he currently stands as the most popular federal party leader.
However, the evolving political narrative also presents an opportunity for rival parties like the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois. While Mr. Poilievre’s profile has grown, there remains room to further define his political persona and policies in the public eye. This scenario offers a window for opposition parties to craft and disseminate their counter-narratives, potentially influencing public opinion and redefining the political discourse. The challenge for these parties will be to effectively communicate their perspectives and policies, thereby capitalizing on the still-malleable public perception of Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives.
The initial success of the Conservative Party’s efforts is also reflected in the gains they have made in vote intention, as indicated by a release we put out earlier this week.
This shift underscores the effectiveness of their current strategies in not only increasing Mr. Poilievre’s popularity but also potentially swaying the electorate’s intentions in future elections. The dynamic nature of public opinion, however, suggests that the political landscape remains fluid. The coming months will likely see continued efforts by all parties to shape and influence public perception, which will be crucial in the run-up to any future election.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Last month we focused on exploring the topic of housing, including access, affordability and it’s impact on Canadians’ everyday lives. This month, we are focusing on agriculture and food. How do we feel about food? How does it influence our lives? What do we think about the sectors that provide food for Canadians and for the world?
To kick things off this month we asked some questions about Canadians relationship with food. We wanted to understand the relationship Canadians have with food- have they felt pressured to make choices because of social expectations? And as part of our She/Her/Hers work we were curious to see whether these pressures are felt among men vs. women. This survey was fielded online to a sample of n=2,000 gen pop Canadian adults from October 27th to October 31st 2023.
Most Canadians have (and have always had) a positive relationship with food.
65% of Canadians say their relationship with food has always been positive, 22% say positive now but less so in the past, and 9% say negative now but it’s been more positive in the past. 5% have always had a negative relationship with food.
However, relationships with food look very different between men and women. 75% of men say they’ve always had a positive relationship with food. Among women this is only 54%, and among young women (18 to 29) this drops even further to 33%.
Also concerning, young people overall have far more negative relationships with food. Half of young people have experienced a negative relationship with food compared to just a quarter of Canadians 60+. Relationships with food are also influenced by access. Canadians from lower income households are less likely to have a positive relationship with food.
Negative relationships can be driven by external pressures and expectations. One in three Canadians have felt social pressure when it comes to what they eat and how much.
Women are more likely to agree than men and young Canadians (particularly young women) also face a great deal of social pressures compared to older Canadians. 58% of young women say they’ve felt pressure from their peers on what/how much to eat, compared to just 19% of women 60+. Parents of children under 18 (both men and women) also feel more social pressure than average.
As a result, the pressures to eat a nutritious diet aren’t always with health in mind. Half of Canadians eat a nutritious diet because it will help them achieve their desired appearance.
52% of Canadians say a nutritious, balanced diet is important to them because it will help them stay healthy. 11% say it’s important because it will help them have the body/appearance they desire, 37% say it’s a mix of both.
A quarter (23%) of young women (those 18-29), say eating a nutritious, balanced diet is important to them exclusively because it will help them have the body/appearance they desire (12-points higher than the average).
THE UPSHOT
Most Canadians agree that eating a nutritious, balanced diet is important for health, but it is not the only driver that influences our choices and relationship with food. For young people in Canada, especially young women, there are concerningly strong links between relationships with food and body image and social pressures. Given the influence social pressures have on one’s relationship with food, addressing social expectations on food consumption and on appearance is an important place to start in improving our collective relationship with food.
She/Her/Hers is a research practice dedicated to exploring how the lived experiences of Canadians, their behaviours, and attitudes are gendered. The study explores a range of subject areas that inform what it’s like being a Canadian woman today – from home life, to work life, to finances, to consumer behaviour. To learn more about the study please reach out to: oksana@abacusdata.ca
The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 27 to November 1, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From November 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share new data on:
The latest vote intention estimates
The mood of the country
Views on the federal government’s performance and impressions of the main political party leaders
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 25%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 3%. The BQ is at 28% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives up 2, the NDP up 1, and the Liberals down 1. However, this is now the largest Conservative lead we have measured in our tracking since the 2015 election.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 12 in Atlantic Canada and 15 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the Liberals statistically tied with the BQ with the Conservatives 9-points behind the Liberals.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 3 among 18 to 29 year olds, 17 among 30 to 44 year olds, 18 among 45 to 59 year olds and 19 among those aged 60 and over.
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What is happening beyond vote intention?
First, we have seen a deterioriation in the general mood of the public. Today, 23% think the country is headed in the right direction while 61% think it’s off on the wrong track. This is the worst outlook we’ve measured on this point.
Similarly, the federal government’s approval is down 4 points in less than two weeks. Today, 26% say they approve of the job performance of the federal government while 58% disapprove.
A total of 84% of Canadians want a change in government with 52% wanting change and feeling there is a good alternative. 32% want change but are not completely comfortable with the alternatives. Just 16% believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
Impressions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have also become more negative. Today, 58% have a negative impression of the Liberal leader – the highest we have ever recorded. 25% have a positive impression of him for a net favourable of -33.
Impressions of Jagmeet Singh have also become more negative in the past two weeks. Today 36% have a negative view compared with 32% who have a positive one for a net favourable of -4.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the only leader with net favourables – 37% positive and 33% negative for a score of +4.
When asked who they believe will win the next election, 43% think the Conservatives will win, 18% think the Liberals will, 9% pick the NDP while 30% are unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “As Canadians react to the war between Hamas and Israel, experience rising tensions on the issue here at home, and react with the federal government’s efforts to reduce the impact of inflation and higher interest rates, their mood has soured even further.
Those thinking the country is headed in the right direction is at its lowest level since we’ve been tracking it, including during the worst moments of the COVID-19 pandemic. The federal government’s approval rating and how people feel about the Prime Minister have also shifted negatively in the past two weeks.
All this adds up to continued strength for the Conservatives and weakness for the Liberals in vote intention. The Conservatives lead by 16 – the largest lead we have measured. They lead the Liberals by 15 in Ontario, 13 in Atlantic Canada, and 20 in British Columbia.
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From November 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,00 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share new data on:
Awareness and reaction to the federal government announcement on the carbon tax carve out
Preference for extending the exemption for all home heating fuel
The impact of the carbon tax carve out on the propensity to vote Liberal
6 in 10 Canadians are aware of carbon tax carve out for home heating oil
As of Sunday November 12, about 6 in 10 Canadians are aware the federal government announced it was going to exempt home heating oil from the carbon tax or price, double the rebate people receive for the carbon tax for those living in rural and small towns, and increase the incentive for households to switch to heat pumps.
Awareness was highest in Atlantic Canada (73%) and lower in Quebec (34%).
Over 6 in 10 aware of the carbon tax carve out think it’s a good idea
Overall, 65% of those aware of the carbon tax carve and associated policy changes think it is a good idea. 35% think it is a bad idea.
82% of Atlantic Canadians and 65% of those in Ontario, the Prairies, and BC think it’s a good idea. A slight majority in Quebec (54%) feel the same way.
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Exempt other home heating fuels?
In the survey, Canadians are told provincial premiers, the federal Conservative Party and the federal NDP have called on the federal government to exempt all forms of home heating from the carbon tax and the Prime Minister has said there will be no other exemptions made.
When asked their preference, 72% think other home heating fuels should be exempt to help people deal with the rising cost of living while 28% think no other fuels should be exempt because the exemption is meant to help people transition from heating oil which is much more polluting than other forms of home heating.
Among those aware of the announcement, the split is 76%/24%. 72% in Atlantic Canada and 76% in Ontario, the Prairies, and BC think the exemption should be extending to other futures. 59% in Quebec feel the same way.
A clear majority of current Liberal, NDP, Conservative and BQ supporters feel the same way.
Have the Liberals benefitted from the policy shift on the carbon price?
Overall, more Canadians say they are less likely to vote Liberal as a result of the policy shift than those who say they are more likely to vote Liberal (30% vs. 13%). 56% say the policy shift will have no impact on their vote.
In Atlantic Canada, 21% are more likely to vote Liberal vs. 22% who are less likely. In Ontario, the Prairies, and BC, 35% say they are less likely to vote Liberal while 11% are more likely.
But among key groups the Liberals need to engage and win over if they hope to be competitive again, the net impact of the policy shift is positive.
Among those open to voting Liberal today, 24% say they are more likely to vote Liberal while 12% are less likely to.
Among past Liberal voters, 26% say they are more likely to vote Liberal while 14% are less likely to vote Liberal.
Among current Conservative and NDP supporters, 7% say they are more likely to vote Liberal as a result of the policy shift.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “Our poll results suggest a mixed bag for the Liberal government. Firstly, the awareness level of this policy is significant, with 6 in 10 Canadians knowing about the exemption of home heating oil from the carbon tax. This figure indicates a reasonable degree of public engagement with government policies, particularly in Atlantic Canada, where awareness is even higher. However, the varying levels of awareness across regions, notably lower in Quebec, suggest a geographical disparity in how information is disseminated or received.
The public’s reaction to the carbon tax carve-out is predominantly positive, with 65% of those aware of the policy considering it a good idea. This broad support extends across several provinces and across political lines, indicating that the policy resonates well with a diverse demographic.
However, this positive reception does not necessarily translate into major political gains for the Liberals. Despite the approval of the policy, there is a significant desire (72%) among Canadians for the exemption to be extended to all home heating fuels. This gap between public expectation and government action may limit the political capital the Liberals can gain from this policy.
The poll indicates that the carbon tax carve-out may attract some former Liberal and current Conservative and NDP supporters to the party but not in sufficient numbers to fundamentally change Liberal support. And given the widespread desire for the policy to be extended to home heating fuels, there’s still a lot of political risk to come in how the government manages this issues going forward.”
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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Far more Canadians say they would more likely cast their ballots for a Conservative Party that keeps in place Canada’s climate measures than one that rolls them back, according to a new poll conducted by Abacus Data for Clean Energy Canada.
A commitment to at least maintaining Canada’s current climate and clean energy ambitions is more popular than the opposite approach with respondents from every single province, age group, and gender. It is also more popular with supporters from every political party—including, by a small margin, Conservative voters.
In total, 42% of Canadians say they would be more likely to vote for a pro-climate Conservative Party compared to 13% who would be less likely. In contrast, an anti-climate Conservative Party would deter more voters than it would attract—including 16% of current Conservative voters.
