Liberals ahead by 12 as election speculation heats up

We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (July 29 to Aug 2). As we head towards a likely election call in the next few weeks, here’s our latest look at the Canadian political environment.

HOW BIG ARE THE PARTY VOTER POOLS?

The Liberals continue to have the largest potential voter pool with 54% saying they would consider voting Liberal. This is 8-points larger than the NDP (46%), 13-points larger than the Conservatives (41%), and 23-points larger than the Greens (31%).

Comparing today with July 2019, the Liberals have a slightly larger accessible voter pool (+4), the NDP’s is marginally larger (+2) while the Conservative pool is much smaller (-7).

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 25%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 6% and the BQ 31% in Quebec (8 points behind the Liberals). This is pretty much the exact same vote split as we found at the end of June.

• In BC, we see the Liberals ahead of the NDP and Conservatives (35% to 28% to 27%).

• The typical wide Conservative leads in the Prairies are not there. In Alberta, 38% would vote Conservative compared with 29% for the NDP and 22% for the Liberals. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives are only slightly ahead of the Liberals (35% to 31%).

• The Liberals (with 43%) have a 16-point lead over the Conservatives (27%) in Ontario, with the NDP at 21% and the Green Party at 5%.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 36%, followed by the BQ (31%), the Conservatives (13%) the NDP at 11%.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (51%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (25%) and the NDP (14%).

• The Liberals also lead across all age groups, although the NDP is competitive with those under 30.

• Among self-described “left of centre” voters, the Liberals (49%) lead the NDP (29%) and the Conservatives have 7% support.

• Among self-described right of centre voters, the Conservatives have 58% support, followed by the Liberals (16%) the NDP (7%) the Peoples Party (7%) the BQ (7%) and Green Party (4%).

• Among those who say they are on the centre of the spectrum, the Liberals lead with 39% compared to 23% for the Conservatives, 20% for the NDP, and 7% for the Greens.

We are also resuming testing levels of motivation, by asking people how likely they are to turn out and cast a ballot on election day. Among the 77% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Liberals lead by 11: Liberal, 26% Conservative, 20% NDP, 8% BQ and 5% Green. 3% would vote for the People’s Party.

SECOND CHOICE PREFERENCES

We asked decided respondents which party was their second choice. Overall, 29% of respondents said they do not have a second choice ranging from a high of 41% among Conservative supporters to a low of 14% among NDP supporters.

The NDP has the most room to grow with 22% of respondents saying their second choice was the NDP – 38% among Liberal supporters, 39% among Green supporters, and 16% among Conservative supporters.

14% selected the Liberals as their second choice – 40% among NDP supporters, 17% among Green supporters, and 16% among Conservative supporters.

The Conservative Party has the 4th largest pool of second-choice support at 11%, behind the Greens. 17% of Liberal supporters say the Conservatives are their second choice as do 10% of NDP supporters and 11% of Green supporters.

We also asked to what extent decided respondents are likely to switch their support. Overall, we don’t find a lot of potential switching. Only 4% said they are very likely to switch while another 23% are somewhat likely.

The size of persuadable pools is fairly consistent across the three largest parties – 28% of Liberal, 25% of Conservative, and 31% of NDP supporters say they are very or somewhat likely to switch their vote preference. Only 12% of BQ supporters say they are likely to switch while 41% of Green supporters are open to doing so – the highest of any party.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -1. Views of Mr. Trudeau have been stable for most of 2021. Back in August 2019, 33% had a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau compared with 45% who had a negative view for a net score of -12.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 37% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net +12. Mr. Singh has had a net positive impression for the entire period since the previous election. In August 2019, Mr. Singh’s positives were 25% and negatives were 28% for a net score of -3.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 41%, for a net score of -21. Back in August 2019, Mr. O’Toole’s predecessor Andrew Scheer had positives at 33% and negatives at 36% for a net score of -3.

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 43% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 39% disapprove. This +4 net score nationally breaks down to a +4 in BC, -16 in Alberta, -13 in Man/Sask, +9 in Ontario, +1 in Quebec, +31 in Atlantic Canada.

2019 vs. 2021

Going back to data from our August 2019 survey (just before the start of the 2019 campaign), we find a decidedly different political environment. The Liberals have a large lead, the government’s approval rating is 11-points higher, and Canadians are 12-points more likely to feel like the country is headed in the right direction.

As well, more people have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau today than back in August 2019 and think far less positively of Mr. O’Toole than they did of Mr. Scheer.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “There are three factors to watch right now. First, the Conservatives are facing competition on the right, a lack of voter interest on the centre and weak motivation, given that a third of their voters feel the country is heading in a good direction right now.

Second, the NDP has built appeal around a popular leader and a progressive agenda, but it remains to be seen whether they can draw more votes on the centre of the spectrum, or whether the Liberals policy announcements over the summer have filled-in some of the gaps that progressive voters were looking at and that had been making the Liberals somewhat vulnerable.

Finally, how much and in what ways the pandemic will drive voting – will this election hinge on anxiety about a potential fourth wave and what kind of political leadership people are looking for – or will it feel like an exercise that was poorly timed and unnecessary.”

According to David Coletto: “Not much has changed in our tracking over the past month. The Liberals continue to hold a sizeable national lead built on solid leads in Ontario, BC, and Atlantic Canada. They are strong in Quebec and are increasingly competitive in the Prairies – especially in Manitoba.

If an election were to be called this weekend, the Liberals would start that campaign in a much stronger position than in 2019. More people feel the country is headed in the right direction, the Prime Minister’s personal image is more positive, and the Liberals have a healthy lead – a big difference from the deficit they faced when the campaign started in 2019.

Evidence from our survey suggests the Conservative base is less motivated than in 2019. 30% of Conservative supporters think the country is headed in the right direction and Erin O’Toole’s image is decidedly more negative than Mr. Scheer at this point in the election cycle.

The biggest wildcard remains the NDP. With a weakened Green Party, the most popular leader, and the largest pool of 2nd choice voters, the NDP has a lot of room to grow if dissatisfaction with the Liberals grows.

We don’t necessarily see a volatile electorate – only 4% say they are very likely to switch their vote choice now – but if the other 23% who say they could switch engage and find a better option than their current choice – we could see some shifts over the election campaign.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 29 to August 2, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Canadians think their tax system is unfair and support new revenue tools that bring down the deficit and reduce inequality now.

Pour l’analyse de la langue française, cliquez ici

In mid-July, the Broadbent Institute and the Professional Institute for the Public Service of Canada commissioned Abacus Data to conduct a national public opinion survey to explore attitudes and opinions about tax fairness in Canada. These questions were part of a larger survey exploring opinions about tax fairness, affordability, and the impact of the pandemic on household finances.

The survey found:

1. Most think the pandemic has increased inequality in Canada. More than half of Canadians believe that the pandemic has increase inequality in Canada while 34% think it is about where it was before the pandemic started.

2. Most think Canada’s tax system is unfair. 62% of Canadians describe Canada’s tax system as unfair while only 14% believe it is fair.

3. Tax fairness ≠ “I have to pay more taxes”. Almost all believe that if the tax system was made fairer the amount of taxes they pay would not increase

4. Why do people feel the tax system is unfair? 70% or more feel that large corporations and wealthy Canadians do not pay their fair share in taxes while 40% feel that lower- and middle-income Canadians pay more than their fair share. Most Canadians feel that small businesses pay their fair share in taxes.

5. Now is the time to tackle wealth inequality: A clear majority (82%) believe now is the time to tackle wealth and income inequality by increasing taxes on wealthy Canadians and large, profitable corporations. And we find broad and deep support for several ideas.

6. There is wide support for several tax measures to reduce inequality and raise revenue. The survey also tested support for several ideas to raise revenue to help pay for the pandemic and the post-pandemic recovery.

a. 92% support closing tax loopholes used primarily by the wealthy to lower their overall income tax rate.
b. 92% support making it harder for corporations to strategically book profits in tax havens when no economic activity happens there.
c. 89% support (50% strongly support) a wealth tax paid by the richest Canadians every year.
d. 89% support (44% strongly support) increasing the income tax rate for those who earn $750,000 or more to 37%.
e. 87% support (43% strongly support) an excessive corporate profit tax paid by businesses whose profits are extraordinarily high during the pandemic.

7. Support for these ideas is deep and broad-based: Most telling, support for these ideas cross regional, demographic, and political groups in Canada. For example, when it comes to a wealth tax, 83% of those intending to vote Conservative support the idea, as does 91% of Liberal supporters, 93% of NDP supporters, 96% of BQ supporters, and 95% of Green Party supporters.

8. Tax fairness is a low-risk proposition to most Canadians. When asked to assess the potential impact of increasing taxes on the wealthiest Canadians and large, profitable corporations, most felt that it the quality of life for all Canadians would improve, the federal government wouldn’t have to make as big spending cuts to reduce the deficit and there would be little impact on the Canadian economy.

9. The Trudeau government hasn’t done enough. Most think the Trudeau government hasn’t done enough to make life more affordable, ensure everyone pays their fair share in taxes, and reduce income and wealth inequality in Canada, including a sizeable proportion Liberal Party supporters.

10. Tax Fairness is politically powerful. Almost all Canadians (89%) say they would definitely would consider (33%) or probably would consider (56%) voting for a party that promised to “take real and concrete action in making sure everyone pays their fair share and increasing taxes paid by the wealthiest Canadians and large, profitable corporation.” This view was shared by 97% of NDP supporters, 92% of Liberal supporters, and 84% of Conservative supporters.

11. No Leader or party has a clear advantage on tax fairness or affordability: When asked which party or leader would do the best on affordability, inequality, and tax fairness, no party or leader was the clear preference. When it comes to tax fairness, 21% felt Justin Trudeau and the Liberals would be best, the same percentage who felt that way about Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives were third at 15%. Over 1 in 3 were unsure.

The same was true for who people felt would be best at reducing income and wealth inequality in Canada. Jagmeet Singh and the NDP have a marginal advantage over the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau (24% to 22%) but 1 in 3 are unsure.

Even when it comes to making life more affordable, no leader has a clear advantage with Trudeau coming slightly ahead of Singh (24% vs. 20%) with Erin O’Toole back in third at 17%.

For all the results with breakouts by region, demographics, and political support, please download the full report here.

UPSHOT
The COVID-19 pandemic put a spotlight on the inequalities that exist in our society and most Canadians believe the pandemic has increased income and wealth inequality.

Recognizing that paying for the pandemic and the post-pandemic recovery will mean higher public debt, there’s a near public consensus that increasing taxes on the wealthiest people and large corporations not only will help reduce the deficit but also decrease inequality in Canada.

Consider the near-universal appeal of a wealth tax, closing loopholes, or increasing personal and business income taxes on wealthy people and large corporations. Few fear that making the tax system fairer will result in them paying more in taxes. This confirmed there’s little political risk in moving ahead on this agenda.

For the Liberal government, this data indicates some vulnerability. Most, including many Liberal supporters, feel the Trudeau government hasn’t done enough to address inequality or ensure everyone pays their fair share. And Mr. Singh and the NDP are seen as the best option on achieving those outcomes as Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals are.

As we enter a likely election campaign this summer and debates about how we will pay for the pandemic and recovery start, the appeal of a tax fairness agenda is clear – for all political parties.

Canadians think their tax system is unfair. They know we need to raise more revenue and, as a future release of this survey will show, they think spending cuts will have a negative impact on their lives. Asking those who have the most and have benefited from the pandemic seems like a reasonable and low-risk solution to almost all of them.

Tax fairness could become the lens by which the next election is fought and what impacts the vote choice of millions of voters.

For the full report and additional analysis, visit the Broadbent Institute’s website

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 13 to 19, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

 

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

More Happiness Evident but Young People Remain Unhappy

It feels like a happier place. As restrictions have loosened and more and more people are seeing family and friends the word on the street feels more positive. Certainly, Canadians this spring are as happy as they have been since the Happiness Monitor was launched in October. But our brighter outlook is not a state of euphoria. One group that continues to be less happy are young people (under 30).

As of July 19th, the average happiness score is 65.0 out of 100. While happiness has risen and fallen since May, our overall happiness is consistently higher than it was last fall and winter.  Quebec (69) and Atlantic Canada (68) are the happiest places.

Compared to the end of May when happiness dropped significantly to 62, Canadians are more hopeful, have a sense of personal fulfillment and are more likely to start the day with a sense of excitement.

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One of the consistent drivers of happiness is age. Younger people, those 18 to 29, are consistently less happy than their older peers.  The difference between 18 to 29 year old Canadians and those over 60 is 11.1 points. As we tend to think of optimism and youth going together, this has always been a striking finding. However, looking at what drives happiness and the recent impacts of the pandemic on future opportunities for young Canadians, the lower levels of happiness among this group might not be as surprising.

Of course, not all of the 18 to 29 year old cohort is unhappy. Some of the cohort are decidedly happy and this reveals some insight into the drivers of unhappiness for these Canadians. Those who are employed in a permanent full-time position are very happy (68.8). In fact, this is almost same level of happiness for the average Canadian with full-time work.

Another way to look at this is in terms of key attitudes that are strongly tied to happiness. The 18 to 29 year old cohort differs from the older cohorts on three key questions. While 86% of those over 60 years agree that life is rewarding, only 72% of those under 30 feel this way. Similarly, those under 30 are much less likely to feel fulfilled by their relationship with others and much more likely to think they have not achieved what they thought they would by now.

THE UPSHOT

According to Richard Jenkins: The pandemic’s impact has been unevenly distributed and this is certainly reflected in the relative unhappiness of younger Canadians. While it is tempting to think of this malaise as generational, it is noteworthy that when we look at employed full-time members of this generation, they look a lot like their older peers. The more likely explanation is that the pandemic has left many of those under 30 with the feeling of being left behind or left out of life.

Time will tell if happiness improves among the under 30 crowd as things return to normal. In the meantime we need to be aware of the potential political fallout of a generation that is not feeling as positive as other Canadians.

According to Oksana Kishchuk: The lack of rebound in happiness among the younger generations is likely due to the uneven impacts of the pandemic on things that matter to long-term success or happiness. Certainly everyone has had a shift in their daily lives this past year, but older Canadians just had a better chance at having a security blanket (higher levels of home ownership, further on in their careers, bigger savings pools, etc.) to weather it. For younger Canadians, not so much. As an example, the unpredictable and hotter than ever housing market impacting the dream of home ownership, something young people say is one of their life goals. Or the devastating job loss among younger generations during the pandemic, and the impact a rocky start in a career will have on long-term career projections, and financial stability. On these issues in particular, young people aren’t yet seeing the same kind of rebound, and it’s likely their happiness won’t start on an upward trajectory until they do.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 14 to 19, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. In Canada the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19

You vaxxed? Millions are asking each other and relationships might hang in the balance

The latest Abacus Data research explored how Canadians are feeling about vaccination against Covid-19. Our polling is based on a representative sample of the adult Canadian population, as our sampling includes people 18 and older.

Here’s what we found:

• 84% of adults accept being vaccinated, 8% are hesitant about it, and 8% refuse.

• If we assume a base adult population of 29.5 million adults, our findings can be extrapolated to indicate 17.4 million have had both shots, 6.2 million say they’ve had one and are ready to get the second, and 1.2 million have had none yet but are ready and willing to get a shot. In total, 24.8 million of 29.5 million adults appear to be accepting of Covid vaccination.

• 2.4 million adults could be characterized as hesitant, made up of 1.48 million who say they prefer to wait a bit before getting a shot, and 885,000 who say they would prefer not to be vaccinated but could be persuaded to take a shot. At the beginning of March, 30% said they were hesitant so that the movement down to 8% is very significant.

• Another 2.4 million, or 8% of the adult population say they will not get vaccinated under any circumstances. At the beginning of March, 8% was the number taking this position. Essentially the availability of vaccines, evidence of their safety and efficacy, promotional efforts and influencer endorsements – together have had no apparent effect on the level of refusal.

Just under half of the adult population ask other people if they’ve been vaccinated against Covid19 quite a bit or very often. 55% of those who’ve had both shots ask quite a bit or very often. Among those who refuse to get vaccinated, 71% never ask.

The plurality (44%) say “given the huge impacts of covid on other people and the economy, everyone should be required to get vaccinated unless they have a medical reason for not being vaccinated”, while 38% say “people should be able to choose whether to be vaccinated or not, but if they choose not to it is reasonable to limit their access to some places”, while 19% say “being vaccinated or not should be a matter of choice and those who choose not to should be treated no differently than anyone else.”

However, this national average response obscures a massive gulf in responses between the fully vaxxed and vax refusing Canadians. 94% of vaccinated Canadians believe that some restrictions should apply to non-vaccinated people and 92% of vaccine refusing Canadians reject that idea.

We found more evidence that refusal has significant potential to cause divisions in society.

• When they encounter someone who refuses to take a Covid vaccination, 40% said they think less of the person for “making a bad choice for themselves and for putting other people and the economy at risk.” There is something of a generational divide on this question. Most of those 60 and older (56%) think less of a vaccine refuser, while most of those under 30 say they don’t. (65%). A much bigger divide is evident between the fully vaccinated and vaccine refusers. Just over half of those who have been fully vaccinated think negatively about those who are refusing to be vaccinated.

• 45% would “avoid seeing a friend or relative who refused to get vaccinated in person as much as possible”. 60% of those 60 and older say they would avoid unvaxxed friends or relatives. The majority of those on the left say they would avoid a vax-refusing friend or relative (53%). The majority of those on the right wouldn’t. (62%) Among the fully vaccinated 57% would avoid friends or relatives who refuse vaccination. Among vaccine refusers, 97% would be comfortable being with another unvaccinated person.


Most (69%) think any extension of COVID wage benefits should not be available to people who refuse to get fully vaccinated. Among the fully vaccinated, 82% feel this way. Among those who refuse to be vaccinated 94% disagree.

When it comes to a possible extension of COVID business supports, 73% believe these should only be extended to businesses that strongly encourage employees to be fully vaccinated. 86% of the fully vaccinated feel this way, while 90% of vaccine refusers reject this idea.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “There has been a lot of unity among Canadians about the pandemic and the need for safety and constraints on behaviours that could spread the virus. We appear to be at an inflection point now where that unity could be tested. If our vaccination pace stalls and infections start to rise again, our findings show that divisions around vaccination could become pretty significant.

The number of vaccine refusers is steady at a level that may not prevent community immunity – so perhaps what hangs in the balance is the decisions made by the 2.4 million Canadians who are hesitant – willing to be persuaded of the merits, the safety and open to arguments about the consequences of too much refusal, in terms of health and economic impacts.”

According to David Coletto: “The vaccinated public’s patience for those who choose to not be vaccinated is not unlimited. At some point, support for policy choices – both from the government as well as from businesses – that require vaccination will become more widespread and deeper. From a purely political perspective – the 82% who favour restrictions on what unvaccinated people can do will likely win if the unvaccinated are seen as economic, social, or health threats to individuals or the broader society. I expect this divisions to deepen if vaccination rates stall.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadians residents from July 14 to 19, 2021. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. The sample was sourced from double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

The return to normal travel is delayed, but not cancelled.

Just this week, the federal government announced plans to open our borders to international travelers, starting in August. This is one of the first signals we’ve seen about ‘post-pandemic’ travel, and a return to normal tourism. But as Canada opens its borders, how do Canadians themselves feel about traveling?

Earlier this month we asked Canadians how they feel about travel today, and when it will all feel back to business as usual. Here’s what we found.

For most of us, the pandemic is still impacting how we think about travel. Only one in five Canadians think travel that doesn’t feel like we are in a pandemic is possible. For the rest of us, the presence of hand sanitizer and the remnants of social distancing stickers on the floors aren’t quite reassuring us that we will be able to have a ‘normal’ vacation just yet.

This isn’t necessarily a problem for the 27% who say it still feels like a pandemic, but they are okay with it. However, the majority (54%) say this pandemic travel feeling has turned them off from travel for the time being.

The closer the destination, the earlier a return to normal is predicted. Naturally, we are more likely to say that travel within our region and even province will feel normal well before travel out of the country. Local provincial travel is likely to be the most popular kind of travel destination for the summer and upcoming travel season. By the end of the Summer, half say travel within our own region will be back to normal, and just under half say by this time travel to another region in the province will feel normal as well.

Comparatively, only 11% of us predict travel to the US will be back to normal by then, and even fewer for international travel (7%).

By province, Ontarians are the least optimistic about travel within their province this summer, perhaps due to the slow removal of COVID restrictions in the province preventing a sense of normalcy. Only 35% say travel to another region in the province will feel normal by the end of summer. That said, by the Fall comfort with province-wide travel is in line with those living in other provinces.

Having this sense of normalcy for travel is driving our travel plans. Among those who have intentions of travelling, few are comfortable making a trip out of the country until next year, another signal that travel within Canada, and even within one’s province will be popular for the rest of the year.

Half of Canadians with intentions to travel within their province will do so by the end of the summer.  For those with plans to travel to another province, it will take until the fall before half are comfortable making the trip.

Those in Atlantic Canada and Alberta are the most likely to be taking advantage of in province travel this summer, whether it be around their region, or to another region in the province. Those in Ontario are least likely to make a trip within the province this summer, but once Fall rolls around are just as likely to be making a trip within their home province. Again, the slow rollback of COVID restrictions and their role in feeling ‘normal’ are a likely factor.

THE UPSHOT

According to Oksana Kishchuk: As COVID restrictions begin to lift across the country we can start to imagine a world without these additional rules and regulations. While we may feel comfortable getting back to other routines, travel is likely to take some time, especially travel outside the country.

International travel is still just a dream for most of us until next year, but local travel seems possible, and is already a reality for many. Those relying on Canadians travelling internationally will need to wait a few more months before Canadians are ready to return, but for those attracting tourists within their own provinces, there’s a few more travel seasons where Canadian travelers will be a captive (and likely eager) audience.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 9th to 14th 2021. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

2.4 million are vaccine “maybes”, another 2.4 million say “no”. More than 5 million doubt the second shot is essential.

Abacus Data is proud to be supporting the research and polling for the Faster Together Task Group

The latest Abacus Data research conducted as a contribution to the Faster Together coalition reveals that vaccine-hesitant Canadians number 8% of adults (roughly 2.4 million people), while vaccine refusers number 8% (2.4 million).

We find 60% saying they are fully vaccinated, 19% who’ve had one shot and are ready to get the second as soon as possible, 4% who have had no shots but are ready to get vaccinated.   That equates to roughly 5.6 million ready to get their second shot and 1.2 million ready to get both.

Vaccine hesitancy falls into two categories: 5% who say they would prefer to wait a bit before taking the shot and 3% who say they would prefer not to take the vaccine but could be persuaded to.

Today 81% believe the second shot is “essential” to ensure we end the pandemic, while 11% say it’s a good idea but not essential, and 8% say think it’s a bad idea for people to get the second shot. Fully 20% of men under 45 and 17% of women under 45 doubt that the second shot is essential to end the pandemic. A third of Green Party supporters think the second shot isn’t essential or is a bad idea as do 22% of Conservative supporters. 30% of those who self describe as on the right of the spectrum say the second shot is not essential (13%) or is a bad idea (17%).

Among the hesitant (prefer to wait) group 43% say it’s not essential, and 5% say it’s a bad idea. Among the hesitant (prefer not group, 36% say it’s not essential, and 34% say it’s not a good idea.

Today 78% believe the second shot is “essential” to protect their health, while 12% say it’s a good idea but not essential, and 10% say they are healthy enough that they don’t need the second shot.

Fully 32% of men under 45 and 34% of women under 45 have doubts about whether they really need the second shot.

30% of Green Party supporters aren’t sure they need the second shot as are 24% of Conservative supporters. 33% of those who self describe as on the right of the spectrum say they might not need the second shot.

Among those who haven’t had any shots yet but say they are ready to, almost half aren’t sure a second shot is something they really need.

Together these numbers illustrate a significant measure of complacency about the second shot, based in many cases on the feeling that the level of protection of the first shot is adequate to finish the pandemic and protect an individual’s health.

THE FASTER TOGETHER COALITION

More than 265 organizations (labour unions, individuals, industry associations, airports, universities, and businesses large and small) has formed to encourage Canadians to be vaccinated against Covid19. Co-chaired by Hassan Yussuff, Past President of the Canadian Labour Congress and Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data and a partner in spark*advocacy. Under the banner “Faster, Together” with opinion research contributed by Abacus Data and creative services by Spark Advocacy the group offers more than 400 pieces of creative material that any organization is free to use to reach audiences they have access to.

Faster Together digital ads can be downloaded from this site and used at no cost. A second site explains the work of the coalition and provides a link to provincial sites that can inform them about vaccine availability.

Those who want to join the coalition are welcome simply send an email to banderson@abacusdata.ca or hyussuff1@gmail.com.

There is no cost to join and no limit on the size of the coalition.

CONTACT

Bruce Anderson, Co-Chair
Abacus Data / spark*advocacy
banderson@abacusdata.ca
613.882.0929

Hassan Yussuff, Co-Chair
hyussuff1@gmail.com

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from July 14 to 19, 2021.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Mental Health Stigma? At work and in the public eye

One thing the pandemic has brought us is more frequent conversations about mental health. We’ve had more conversations about our own as many of us struggled with new uncertainties and challenges this past year, but also more conversations about the mental health of public figures (Naomi Osaka’s recent appearance in the news comes to mind).

I’ve been really interested in mental health throughout the pandemic, learning how mental health aligns with our self-rate happiness scores, how it has been influenced since the pandemic at our lowest and as we start to recover.

But as many of us begin to take our vacation days this summer, I became interested in mental health in the workplace. Do Canadians feel comfortable prioritizing their mental health at work without fear of facing stigma? And what do we think of the scrutiny public figures might face if they try and have an open conversation about the topic?

A majority of Canadians feel their workplace respects their mental health needs.  Three-quarters (77%) of Canadians feel like they can be open about their mental health and wellbeing in the workplace without facing discrimination, stigma or judgement.

For many Canadians- their workplaces take it a step further than just having a respectful, open conversation about mental health, and place value on employees taking time off to protect their mental health, just the same as physical health. 77% of working Canadians say time off for mental health is treated the same as time off for physical health.

Finally, for a strong majority of working Canadians, they feel encouraged by their employer to take care of their mental health. 79% of working Canadians say in their workplace, they feel encouraged to take care of their mental health without facing discrimination.

All of this is good news for Canadians, but also good news for employers as employees recognize the positive approach many companies seem to have taken to address mental health in their workplaces. As many of us struggled with mental health challenges throughout the pandemic it is good to see many see their employers as an ally rather than an obstacle to managing their mental health.

Aside from the topline numbers however, are there any differences in age, or gender? Or what about unionized employees or those working in specific sectors?

On the whole, those closer to the end of their careers (those 60+) feel a much higher degree of comfort when it comes to talking about mental health in their workplaces and feeling like their mental health needs are respected and not judged. When it comes to feeling encouraged to take care of one’s mental health, the percentage of working Canadians 60+ that agree is 10 pts higher than the percentage of those 18 to 29 (48% vs 39%).

Adding gender to the mix there are some interesting differences but also similarities. Young men and women (those 18 to 29) are just as likely to agree in their workplace they feel encouraged to take care of their mental health without feeling any kind of discrimination. But this is where the similarities end.

Young men are much more likely to feel that time off for mental health and physical health is treated as one and the same (37% of young men strongly agree vs 26% of young women), but a lot less likely to feel like they can be open about their mental health in the workplace (23% of young men strongly agree vs. 32% of young women). These differences are strongest among this younger age bracket and level out for middle-aged and older Canadian employees.

These trends may speak more to stereotypes and stigma among peers than the workplace culture. As young employees work to prove themselves in their workplaces its likely that that both men and women face concerns for stigma among their older peers; for young men it’s the stigma they may face if they were to speak openly about their mental health, while for young women, the struggle seems to be more about taking time off to take a break.

Among other demographics, there is little difference between unionized and non-unionized employees, and no discernable differences between sectors.

Aside from speaking up and openly discussing mental health in our own workplaces, what about individuals who are in the public and who’s ‘workplace’ may expand into the public and beyond their employer?

We asked Canadians whether they believed different public figures would face stigma if they were to publicly discuss their mental health challenges (back to Naomi Osaka).

It turns out that, while half say they would face some stigma, professional athletes certainly don’t have it the worst. Instead, more Canadians believe Canadian elected officials(62%) and CEOs (60%) face stigma when publicly discussing their mental health than professional athletes (50%), or social media influencers (48%- though this does vary greatly by age).

While it seems there is still a lot of work to be done on open conversations about mental health and anyone the public eye, the areas with the biggest room for improvement seem to be politics and business. And those at the beginning (18-29) and end (60+ of their careers are the most likely to say these two groups face stigma.

Still, it seems like a lot of work needs to be done on allowing more open conversations about mental health and those in the public eye.

THE UPSHOT

According to Oksana Kishchuk: When it comes to the conversation of mental health and the workplace, a majority of Canadian employees are pretty well off. Three quarters of working Canadians feel like we can be open about that part of our lives in the workplace, and that our workplaces will respect our needs to take care of our mental health including take time off for our mental health when we need it.

On the topic of open conversations and mental health it seems there is more work to be done however. Half of Canadians say everyone from professional athletes, CEOs, doctors and elected officials would face stigma if they were to have open conversations about mental health in the workplace.

While the pandemic has made room for more conversations about mental health there is still more work to do, especially when it comes to changing the conversation towards more positive, open conversations about our mental health.

And don’t miss any of our research and analysis, plus get our weekly Worth A Look newsletter. Sign up today.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from July 5th to 8th 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Workplace

How Canadians view the federal party leaders

Our latest nationwide survey included a series of probes designed to help understand how the public sees the leaders of the three biggest national political parties.

Here’s what we found.

JAGMEET SINGH

Today, Mr. Singh is arguably the most popular national political leader, with 38% saying they have a positive view of him, while 26% have a negative view. His image is significantly better among women, younger voters, British Columbians and those with post-secondary education. His standing is noticeably worse than his national average in Quebec and Alberta. Those planning on voting Liberal, Green, and NDP like him, while Conservatives and Bloc voters mostly don’t.

Among those who definitely think it’s time for a change in government, more don’t like what they see in Mr. Singh than like him (positive 33% vs. negative 36%). Among voters on the centre, 32% are positive, while 24% are negative. He’s strong in urban Canada and weaker in rural Canada.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 41% like him, while 27% don’t.

ERIN O’TOOLE

Mr. O’Toole is the least popular of the national political leaders, with only 20% saying they have a positive view of him, and twice as many saying they have a negative view (40%).

His image is better among men than women, among those with less formal education, people living in Alberta, those in the 45-59 age group, but still is more negative than positive in every one of those cohorts. His best results are in Alberta and worst numbers are in Atlantic Canada, but the balance is negative in every region, including the Prairies. Those planning on voting Liberal, Green, NDP and BQ are pretty negative towards him.

Among those who definitely think it’s time for a change in government, 34% like him, while 29% don’t. Among voters on the centre, 17% are positive, while 32% are negative. His image is roughly the same in urban, suburban and rural Canada.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 23% like him, while 42% don’t.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU

Mr. Trudeau has an equal mix of fans (40%) and detractors (39%).

His image is doesn’t vary much by gender or age. His best results are in Quebec and worst numbers are in the Prairies. Everywhere but in the Prairies at least 40% like the Prime Minister. Those with high school education tend not to like Trudeau as much as those with a university education (35% vs. 46%). Those planning on voting Liberal like him, but supporters of all the other parties are more negative than positive towards him.

Among voters in the centre, 37% are positive, while 38% are negative. His image is better in urban and suburban areas than in rural Canada, but the differences are not that large.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 42% like him, while 40% don’t.

DETAILED IMPRESSIONS

We also asked respondents to assess each leader on several items – asking them which of two words or phrases best describes the leader. A large majority of voters see Jagmeet Singh as someone with good values, an optimist, and modern. Smaller majorities see him as interesting and possessed of great ideas. People are split about whether he gets “people like them”, although 70% of those under 30 think he does.

Most voters think Erin O’Toole does not get people like them, is boring, old-fashioned, and doesn’t have great ideas. People are split about whether he has good values and tend to see him as more of a pessimist than an optimist.

Justin Trudeau is seen by a broad majority as modern and an optimist, and a solid majority as having good values. Just over half see him as interesting, just under half say he has great ideas. A majority don’t think he really gets people like them.

Comparing the three leaders shows that Mr. Singh has a nine-point advantage on good values over Mr. Trudeau, who is 10 points ahead of Mr. O’Toole. Both Trudeau and Singh are widely seen as optimists and modern, but voters are not sure if Mr. O’Toole is an optimist and tend to think he is not very modern.

Trudeau and Singh are relatively competitive in terms of being interesting. Singh has a 10-point advantage on “great ideas”, “gets people like me”.

Mr. O’Toole’s biggest vulnerabilities are a sense that he doesn’t have very appealing ideas, doesn’t really get the majority of voters, and hasn’t seemed interesting thus far.

WHAT DO SWING VOTERS THINK?

If we concentrate our analysis on those who say they will definitely vote but haven’t yet made up their mind how they will vote, the data also show a modest advantage for Mr. Singh over Mr. Trudeau, both of whom are better positioned than Mr. O’Toole.

Mr. Trudeau’s biggest gaps relative to Mr. Singh are on “great ideas” and “gets people like me” where the NDP leader is ahead by at least 15 points.

Mr. O’Toole is competitive with Mr. Trudeau on “gets people like me” “great ideas” but neither scores very well with these voters. Mr. O’Toole’s biggest gaps behind Mr. Trudeau are on “modern”, “interesting” and “optimist”.

WHAT DO UNDER 30 WOMEN VOTERS THINK?

One of the more interesting voter segments we have been watching lately is women under the age of 30. Among these voters, Mr. Trudeau’s trails Mr. Singh by as many as 30 points on several of these traits.

The Conservative Party has often faced a challenge connecting with this demographic and these results suggest this remains the case.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “While overall voting intentions do not at this point signal a breakthrough for the NDP, these numbers suggest that one of the variables that can make a party more competitive – a popular leader – is something the NDP has right now.

For the Liberals, the data suggest some negatives have accumulated over the years Mr. Trudeau has been in power but there remains a reasonably robust amount of positive opinion towards the Prime Minister – and quite a bit more favourable impressions that those that exist for Conservative leader O’Toole.

For Mr. O’Toole, while impressions of leaders can change a lot during the course of the campaign, this would need to happen in order for the Conservatives to improve their competitiveness with the Liberals. In some respects, the numbers for Mr. O’Toole reflect a view of the party he leads more than he himself, but if his intention was to present himself as a different kind of Conservative leader, this project is not succeeding so far. With 3 out of 4 voters sensing that he does not get people like them – he has been failing to seem relevant and on point for a lot of people who might otherwise cast a ballot for change.”

According to David Coletto: “How we feel about a party’s leader is one of the most important factors in determining how we might vote. In 2011, Jack Layton convinced many of those who identified as Liberal to vote NDP thanks to their affinity for him and their dislike for Mr. Ignatieff. In 2015, Mr. Trudeau re-established Liberal support due to the optimism, change, and hope he offered and the excitement many voters had for what he stood for.

As we head towards a likely summer election call, our survey data suggest that Jagmeet Singh will start the campaign in a very strong position. He has a solid image built on a sense that he is modern, in touch with voters, and an optimist. His net favourables are the best of any federal leader at the moment.

Mr. O’Toole faces the opposite scenario. He has as many people who dislike him as Mr. Trudeau but half as many who like him. He’s seen as out of touch, old-fashioned, and lacking both charisma and good ideas. Both aren’t necessary to win but usually, a successful candidate has at least one to offer voters. Right now, most Canadians, including those who are on the fence but say they will vote, find few positive things to say about Mr. O’Toole.

Prime Minister Trudeau would start a 2021 campaign in a stronger position than in 2019. More people like him now than back then and the contrasts with Mr. O’Toole are even sharper than they were with Mr. Scheer. Although fewer people are angry and strongly dislike him, 2021 isn’t 2015 as Mr. Trudeau has few supporters with a deep affinity for him to count on. His road to re-election is built on general satisfaction with his performance and a dislike for his chief alternative, Mr. O’Toole.

Campaigns can change perceptions and impressions– especially coming out of a time when opposition leaders haven’t had much profile and voters haven’t really considered their political choices. But this data helps us understand where things stand just as the campaign is likely to start.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 28 to 30, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Introducing Carson Miles – an Ottawa-based road cyclist being supported by Abacus Data

As many in our community know, I’m pretty passionate about cycling. I love all aspects of the sport – the way a ride makes me feel, the excitement of July when the Tour de France is on, or how a bike is a great equalizer.

Earlier this year, I was introduced to Carson Miles – a young, Ottawa-based cyclist – who happened to be the step-son of a client of mine.

After several conversations, a quick look at this Strava account, and a few encounters while riding in Gatineau Park, I soon realized Carson has so much potential and I wanted to support him.

I’m excited to announce that Abacus Data is supporting Carson for the 2021 season as he races in Europe and then in Canada later this year.

MEET CARSON MILES

My name’s Carson Miles, and I’m a cyclist racing for Tag Cycling, a Canadian trade team from Canada. I currently spend most of my time in Europe racing, and when I’m not overseas I’m based in Ottawa, Ontario. I’ve been cycling for around 7 years now competitively. Before cycling, I was playing high level basketball in Ottawa and competing nationally. I got into cycling through some family friends, and slowly fell more in love with the sport and started to take racing more seriously through my junior years. I quit basketball and spent more time away at training camps in Europe and the United States. During this time I also graduated from Woodroffe High School, where I did most of my grade 12 year online.

After high school, cycling became a full time pursuit for me. I had gone to worlds that year in Innsbruck, Austria, and I put going to post secondary on hold to follow my dreams. I later signed to a professional team, Floyd’s Pro Cycling, in my first year at the elite level. The year following I took another step forward and raced for the Israel Startup Nation development team, Israel Cycling Academy. In a year marred by Covid, my first experience racing in Europe was not an ideal one, but lots of lessons were learnt and experience gained. I did however have to take one step back and move to a smaller team where I am now. This just lit my fire even more to prove myself and show my capabilities to be worthy of a spot at the highest level. This year I will have the chance to do some big races in Europe with the National team and thanks to the support of Abacus Data, I can spend more time in Europe racing and training before my big goals this season.

For more information about Carson, visit his personal website.

Over the next few months, we will be cheering Carson on, sharing his experience racing and training in Europe, and following his progress.

For more information about Carson, check out this great profile of him from a few years back.

Good luck Carson racing this year!

David Coletto

Media

2021 is not 2019: Liberals well ahead as Conservative vote hits a new low

We just completed a national survey of 1500 Canadian adults (June 10-15). Here’s what the survey found:

HOW BIG ARE THE PARTY VOTER POOLS?

If there is a national election in Canada this year, it may have a different flavour than recent elections.

The “accessible voter pool” (meaning the number of people who would consider voting for each party) has shifted. Today, the Conservatives (41%) sit behind both the Liberals (56%) and the NDP (48%). In Quebec, 51% are open to voting Liberal, 43% BQ, 31% NDP, and 25% Conservative.

For the Conservatives, this number is hazardously low and 7-points lower than at this point last year and are just 36% among those under 30, 37% among women, and less than 22% of current supporters of the Liberals, NDP, Green Party and Bloc. Only 39% of those who describe themselves as being on the centre of the spectrum say they would consider voting Conservative right now. No less worrying for Conservative campaign organizers may be the fact that 20% of those who consider themselves right of centre won’t consider voting for the CPC today.

For the Liberals, the 56% pool is some 6-points higher than it was in July 2019, before the last election. Less than 1 in 5 BQ voters (17%) and 22% of Conservative voters would consider voting Liberal, but 47% of Green Party and 49% of NDP voters would consider casting a ballot.

For the NDP, 48% indicates a higher degree of potential than we saw in the run up to the last election. A good deal of the potential lies in the fact that 66% of those under 30 will consider the NDP, a notch better than the Liberals at 62%) and almost 30 points ahead of the Conservatives (36%).

Among those who say they will definitely vote (which sometimes is a useful way to identify likely voters from those who may not turn out) 57% will consider the Liberals, 50% will consider the NDP and 42% will consider the Conservatives.

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 37% of the vote, the Conservatives 25%, the NDP 20%, the Green Party 7% and the BQ 29% in Quebec (8 points behind the Liberals).

• In BC we see the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (34% to 32%) with the Conservatives further back at 21%, and the Green Party polling at 7% .

• The Conservatives’ wide leads in the Prairies, are not as wide as they have been in the past. In Alberta, the Conservatives have 38% support, followed by the Liberals at 27% and the NDP at 20%. Another 15% of the voting intention is divided up among the Green Party (3%, the Peoples Party (8%) and another party (presumably the Maverick Party) with 4%.

• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, we find the Conservatives with 38% support, the NDP at 27% and the Liberals with 26%.

• The Liberals (with 40%) have a 14-point lead over the Conservatives (26%) in Ontario, with the NDP at 22% and the Green Party at 8%.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 37%, followed by the BQ (29%) the Conservatives (17%) the NDP at 10%.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (53%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (20%) and the NDP (20%)

• Among the most likely voters (those who say they are certain to vote) the Liberals lead with 36% compared to 26% for the Conservatives, 20% for the NDP another signal of a Conservative “motivation” challenge, compared to past elections.

• Among self described “left of centre” voters, the Liberals (49%) lead the NDP (30%) and the Conservatives have 10% support.

• Among self described right of centre voters, the Conservatives have 64% support, followed by the Liberals (13%) the NDP (7%) the Peoples Party (6%) the BQ (6%) and Green Party (2%).

• Among those who say they are on the centre of the spectrum, the Liberals lead with 38% compared to 20% for the Conservatives, 18% for the NDP, and 9% for each of the Green and BQ parties.

This overall picture – today, with the caveat that elections can cause a lot to change – suggests the Liberals and the NDP are both better positioned than they were just before the 2019 election, and the Conservatives find themselves more weakly positioned due to a smaller accessible voter pool, only average motivation among Conservative voters (something they normally have an advantage on), and facing competition from both left and right, including in the Prairies, which has been a stronghold for the party in the past.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of +1. Trudeau is +6 in BC, +2 in Ontario, +12 in Quebec, and +9 in Atlantic Canada. He is -27 in Alberta and -19 in Sask/Man. Among those who will definitely vote, Trudeau is 0. Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, Trudeau is +20.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 38% and finds negative impressions among 25% for a net +12. Singh is +24 in BC, +3 in Alberta, +15 in Man/Sask, +17 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec and +24 in Atlantic Canada. He is +6 among men and +18 among women. Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government, but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, Singh is +28.

Erin O’Toole enjoys a positive impression among 21% and finds negative impressions among 39%, for a net score of -20. O’Toole is -25 in BC, -7 in Alberta, -13 in Man/Sask, -23 in Ontario, -18 in Quebec and -35 in Atlantic Canada. He is -19 among centre voters and +31 among right of centre voters (with less than half registering a positive opinion). Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government, but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, O’Toole is -14.

Among NDP voters Mr. O’Toole is -53; among Liberal voters he is -47.

Among Conservative voters, Mr. Singh is -26; among Liberal voters he is +23.

Among NDP voters, Mr. Trudeau is -11; among Conservative voters he is -60.

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 46% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 39% disapprove. This +7 net score nationally breaks down to a +10 in BC, -15 in Alberta, -11 in Man/Sask, +10 in Ontario, +14 in Quebec, +5 in Atlantic Canada.

Some 19% of Conservative voters approve of the federal government’s performance, as do 32% of BQ voters, 33% of Green Party voters, 41% of NDP voters.

Among those who say it would be “good to have a change of government, but they don’t feel that strongly about it”, 51% approve and 21% disapprove of the Trudeau government.

Among those who say they will definitely vote 47% approve and 41% disapprove.

DESIRE FOR A CHANGE

Today 40% say it’s definitely time for a change in government, which is some 12-points below the reading we found just before election day in 2019. Another 29% would prefer to see a change but don’t feel all that strongly about it.

• Among Conservative voters, 75% are adamant about wanting a change and 23% prefer a change but don’t feel that strongly about it.

• Among NDP voters, 52% are adamant about wanting a change and 35% don’t feel that strongly about it.

• Among Green Party voters, 46% are adamant about wanting a change and 39% don’t feel that strongly about it.

• Among BQ Party voters, 41% are adamant about wanting a change and 30% don’t feel that strongly about it.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The overall feeling one gets from these numbers is that there are a lot of progressive voters in play, an NDP leader who has built a positive image during the pandemic – but at the same time a fairly muted desire for change in government, and a reasonably good level of approval for the PM and his government.

On the Liberals right flank, there’s some evidence that the Conservative brand is not as strong as it has been in the Prairies, is not terribly competitive in Quebec and Ontario, and the Conservative leader has lost favourability – at a fairly steep pace – during the pandemic.

If the Conservatives have been banking heavily on disaffection with Mr. Trudeau or his government as fuel for their campaign, they may need to find another gear or a different narrative, as swing and centre voters don’t seem drawn to the arguments they are presenting. While their weak appeal with voters on the centre of the spectrum, (the plurality of voters), should be their priority if they are campaigning to win an election, their vulnerability on the right will be their priority if they are worried about not losing ground.”

According to David Coletto: “A 2021 campaign, if it comes this summer, will begin in a very different opinion environment than in 2019.

Although a similar number of people would like to see a change in government, the intensity of that desire is much more muted than in 2019. The country is in a far better mood and the Liberal government has a solid approval rating. The Prime Minister’s personal numbers are much stronger than at this point in 2019 and the opposition Conservatives lack a motivated base, a popular leader, or an issue to galvanize voters around.

It is hard to imagine that an opposition leader (O’Toole) with half as many people with positive views and about equal numbers with negative views as the Prime Minister can challenge for the top job. If anything, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is the wildcard – he is very appealing to younger voters and has a larger pool of accessible voters than in 2019. If Mr. Trudeau or the Liberals stumble, the NDP is well-positioned to take advantage.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 28 to 30, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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