Canada’s Financial Future: Insights into Financial Literacy, Banking Satisfaction, and Open Banking Adoption

Between January 18 and 23, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey with 2,199 Canadians aged 18 and above to examine their attitudes towards financial services, banking, and technology. The survey examines Canadians’ digital literacy, financial technology knowledge, banking preferences, and the potential of open banking adoption. This research was paid for by Abacus Data and was conducted to help inform a presentation I gave at a recent open banking/FinTech meeting.

Despite overall satisfaction with traditional banking, concerns are raised about fees, interest rates, and limited branch availability, highlighting the potential for open banking to address these challenges and offer personalized financial solutions.

Digital Literacy and FinTech Knowledge

The results show that just 38% of individuals feel confident in their digital literacy, while only 30% claim proficiency in financial literacy, and a mere 15% demonstrate familiarity with financial technologies. Moreover, the findings reveal a clear generational divide, as younger Canadians (aged 18-29 and 30-44) demonstrate significantly higher levels of digital literacy (51% and 47% respectively) and comprehension of financial technology (23% and 21% respectively) in contrast to older Canadians (aged 60 and above), where only 25% exhibit digital literacy and a mere 9% possess knowledge of financial technologies.

Assessing Satisfaction with Personal Banking Solutions

Overall, Canadians are generally quite satisfied with their primary financial institutions. Specifically, 72% are satisfied with their personal banking, 70% trust their institution, and 69% feel that their financial needs are being met. Additionally, 60% feel their current financial institution delivers personalized services tailored to their individual requirements. However, demographic analysis reveals differences, with younger Canadians less in agreement compared to older demographics across the statements presented. Thus, while overall satisfaction with banking solutions appears high among Canadians, demographic disparities and preferences for banking methods underscore the importance of tailored services and targeted communication strategies to meet diverse customer needs effectively.

This may also signal a shift in preferences over time as younger generations enter the market and older ones leave it.

Perceived Effectiveness of the Canadian Banking System

Despite Canadians’ overall satisfaction and trust in their financial institutions, findings suggest that certain needs are not being sufficiently met.

Only 51% believe that the Canadian banking system adapts to changing customer needs, 45% feel it addresses the financial concerns of the average Canadian, and a mere 44% perceive it as open and transparent. Moreover, just 27% agree that the system prioritizes customers’ best interests over profits – a concern we find with most private sector, for-profit businesses.

These results highlight a disparity between personal satisfaction with individual financial institutions and the perception of the banking system’s effectiveness in meeting Canadians’ needs.

Navigating Challenges in Canadian Banking Solutions

When evaluating the current challenges Canadians encounter with their banking solutions, high fees (32%) and unfavorable interest rates (30%) emerge as the most significant concerns. Additionally, 17% of Canadians express frustrations over limited branch availability or hours, while 16% cite poor customer service and security concerns.

It’s also worth mentioning that a small proportion of Canadians cite a lack of control over their financial data and information and a lack of digital services as a top concern. This is important when trying to understand the demand for open banking and fintech.

Finally, there is a sizeable portion of the public who have no issues with the banking system. Close to 4 in 10 Canadians say there are no significant challenges with their current banking options.

The findings also indicate a shift in the challenges encountered by Canadians today, reflecting generational differences. While issues like high fees and interest rates affect many Canadians across age groups, younger Canadians face unique challenges such as limited operating hours, security apprehensions, lack of control over their financial data, and complex account management when compared to those aged 60 and above. Although these concerns may only affect a minority of Canadians, they offer preliminary evidence of the market’s response to generational shifts.

Open Banking Awareness Among Canadians

When it comes to open banking, 57% of Canadians acknowledge being unfamiliar, while a mere 12% claim to be familiar with the concept.

Familiarity is more prevalent among younger Canadians (18-29: 17% aware; 30-44: 19% aware) and among current users of online banking (24% aware). In contrast, older Canadians (60+) and those who currently use traditional banking express lower levels of familiarity, with 66% and 61% respectively stating they are unfamiliar with open banking.

Despite initial unfamiliarity, findings suggest a early interest in adopting open banking among Canadians once they become acquainted with it. Specifically, 1 in 4 Canadians express likelihood in adopting open banking, while 17% indicate a need for more information, followed by 30% who remain neutral. This interest is particularly pronounced among younger demographics, highlighting a notable generational divide in adoption readiness.

However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty over whether open banking will be beneficial to consumers.

Navigating Concerns and Opportunities in Open Banking Adoption Among Canadians

In the realm of open banking, Canadians’ primary concerns revolve around data security (63%), privacy (62%), and the potential for unauthorized access (54%) as many individuals perceive their data to be more accessible and vulnerable through open banking solutions. Given these apprehensions, it’s necessary for open banking solutions to prioritize innovation while ensuring consumer protection and data security measures.

Beyond security and privacy worries, many Canadians express concerns stemming from a lack of knowledge. Specifically, 40% of respondents highlight their limited understanding of the benefits of open banking as a source of unease.

The Importance of Customization and Personalization in Open Banking Evaluation

While open banking remains unfamiliar to many Canadians, its potential benefits are understood by some. Notably, 41% are willing to share data for real-time fraud detection. Additionally, there is some interest in personalized benefits, with 24% interested in tailored loan offers and 1 in 5 Canadians intrigued by simplified loan approvals, personalized financial guidance, and automated savings options. It is important to note, however, that interest for the benefits of open banking is limited and most of the benefits don’t appeal to the majority of Canadians. This may be due to a lack of interest and/or due to a lack of knowledge about open banking in general.

Once more, these findings underscore a notable generational gap, with younger Canadians showing a significantly higher propensity to value the influence of personalization, customization, integration, and speed of services offered through open banking, in contrast to Canadians aged 60 and above.

The Upshot

Although satisfaction with personal financial institutions remains high, Canadians acknowledge persistent challenges, such as adapting to meet their needs, transparency, and prioritizing Canadians’ best interests. Addressing these concerns necessitates collaboration among financial institutions, regulators, and policymakers to foster a fair and transparent banking environment that effectively serves Canadians’ changing needs.

In this context, the emergence of open banking presents an opportunity to address some of these challenges and deliver more personalized and innovative financial services. However, there is a clear need for increased awareness and education about open banking among Canadians, particularly among older generations and traditional bank users.

Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much demand for it. The challenge with open banking is that many Canadians don’t understand it and, as a result, they are resistant to embracing it. We have witnessed similar technological advancements where people were resistant to change like the transition to email.

At present, open banking lacks substantial demand. A primary obstacle it encounters is the widespread lack of understanding among many Canadians, which fosters resistance to its adoption. This resistance reflects patterns seen in past technological advancements, including the shift to email, the advent of cellular phones evolving into smartphones, and the emergence of online shopping. In each instance, initial resistance gave way to widespread acceptance as people recognized the benefits of these innovations.

Advocating for the implementation of open banking should be a priority in the financial service sector, as it holds promise for addressing numerous challenges Canadians encounter. With a focus on consumer protection, data security, and customized services, open banking has the capacity to improve financial inclusion and enable individuals to make better-informed financial choices.

Fostering digital literacy, advancing open banking awareness, and advocating for consumer-centric policies are crucial steps towards creating a more inclusive and resilient financial ecosystem in Canada. By addressing these key areas, the industry can better equip Canadians to navigate the complexities of modern banking and improve their financial well-being.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019. Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Contact us

BlogCanadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourPublic Policy

Navigating Public Opinion for Policy Success: Introducing the Abacus Data Three Thread Framework

In the realm of public policy, advocacy, and public affairs, understanding and navigating public opinion is crucial for achieving meaningful and lasting change. At Abacus Data, we specialize in deciphering the complex tapestry of public sentiments to guide organizations through the intricate process of policy development, advocacy campaigns, and public engagement.

Our approach is centered around a unique and highly effective model we call the Three Thread Framework. This framework is designed to unravel the nuances of public opinion, ensuring that our clients can effectively align their strategies with the realities of public perceptions and political feasibility.

Think of it as part of the Abacus Data method. One of the things that makes us unique, and what I think, excellent researchers and storytellers.

Inspiration from John Kingdon: The Genesis of the Three Thread Framework

Before delving into the intricacies of the Three Thread Framework, it is essential to acknowledge the foundational work of political scientist John Kingdon, which serves as the bedrock for our approach at Abacus Data.

Kingdon’s seminal research on agenda-setting and public policy formation introduced the concept of “policy windows” and the “streams” model of problem, policy, and politics. His work illuminates how certain conditions align to make the adoption of new policies feasible. Inspired by Kingdon’s insights, the Three Thread Framework builds upon the idea that successful policy change requires the convergence of problem recognition, viable solutions, and political will. This theoretical underpinning ensures that our framework is grounded in a deep understanding of the dynamics of policy development and public opinion.

The Essence of the Three Thread Framework

The Three Thread Framework is built on the premise that successful policy change or advocacy efforts require the convergence of three critical components of public opinion:

  1. Problem Recognition: The public must be aware of and acknowledge the issue at hand as a significant problem that necessitates action. This involves not only highlighting the issue’s relevance but also making its implications clear and tangible to the general populace.
  2. Solution Viability: There must be a consensus on a viable solution that the public believes can effectively address the problem. This solution must be presented in a manner that is both understandable and appealing to the target audience, showcasing its benefits and feasibility.
  3. Political Will and Support: Finally, there needs to be sufficient political will and public support to implement the proposed solution. This involves mobilizing public opinion to create a conducive environment for policy adoption and execution.

The Three Thread Framework in Practice

Applying the Framework in Public Opinion Research

At Abacus Data, we harness the Three Thread Framework not only as a lens through which to view public affairs and policy challenges but also as a guiding principle in the design and analysis of our public opinion research. Here’s how we integrate this framework into our research methodologies:

  • Problem Recognition: We design our surveys and studies to gauge public awareness and perceptions of issues, seeking to understand the depth of concern among different demographic and geographic segments. This involves asking pointed questions that reveal not only if the public is aware of an issue but also if they perceive it as a problem that warrants action.
  • Solution Viability: Our research explores public attitudes towards proposed solutions, assessing their perceived effectiveness, feasibility, and desirability. We use a mix of question designs to capture nuanced opinions on various solutions, allowing us to identify which proposals have the broadest support or face significant skepticism.
  • Political Will and Support: To assess the political climate, we measure public support for policy actions, including the level of urgency attributed to them by the populace. We may also explore trust in institutions and key figures responsible for implementing policies, providing a comprehensive picture of the potential for political mobilization and support.

Synthesizing Insights for Strategic Action

The data and insights gleaned from applying the Three Thread Framework inform our strategic recommendations to clients. By understanding where the public stands in terms of problem recognition, solution viability, and political will, we can craft tailored messaging strategies, advocacy campaigns, and public engagement plans that resonate with target audiences and move the needle on policy issues.

Applying the Framework: Real-World Examples

The Three Thread Framework has been applied successfully in various contexts, from building support for major infrastructure projects to advocating for new initiatives in federal budgets, and even in efforts to halt undesirable policy changes. Here are a few illustrative examples:

  • Major Infrastructure Projects: For a major infrastructure project to gain traction, the public must first recognize the need for the project, whether it addresses congestion, improves safety, or enhances economic growth. Next, the proposed project must be seen as a practical and effective solution to these issues. Finally, there must be ample political and public support to navigate the project through planning, approval, and implementation stages.
  • Federal Budget Advocacy: When advocating for new initiatives or spending allocations in the federal budget, it’s essential to first highlight the gaps or deficiencies in current policies or funding levels. A clear, compelling case must then be made for how the proposed initiative or spending can address these issues. Garnering political will and support, particularly among key decision-makers and influencers, is crucial to ensure the initiative’s inclusion and prioritization in the budget.
  • Opposing Policy Changes: To effectively oppose a policy change, stakeholders must first convince the public of the potential negative impacts of the proposed change. They must then propose alternative solutions or adjustments that would mitigate these impacts. Building a coalition of support among the public and politicians creates a powerful force capable of influencing policy decisions.

Why the Three Thread Framework Matters

The Three Thread Framework is not just a theoretical model; it is a practical tool that has proven effective in guiding successful advocacy and policy change efforts. By ensuring that all three threads are addressed, organizations can increase their chances of success, whether they are advocating for change or trying to prevent it. This framework helps organizations to strategize their communications, refine their messaging, and target their efforts more effectively, ultimately leading to more favorable outcomes.

Let’s Collaborate

At Abacus Data, we are proud of our track record in using the Three Thread Framework to help our clients navigate the complexities of public opinion and achieve their public affairs objectives. Our team of experienced researchers and strategists is adept at applying this framework to a wide range of issues, ensuring that our clients’ efforts are grounded in a deep understanding of public sentiment and political realities.

Whether you are working to build support for a major infrastructure project, advocating for new initiatives in federal, provincial, or municipal budgets, or striving to initiate or slow policy change, our team can help you level-up your public affairs research and strategy. We invite you to reach out to discuss how we can support your team in making a meaningful impact through informed, strategic engagement with public opinion and policy processes.

Get in touch with us today to learn more.

Canadian PoliticsEnvironment & Climate ChangeProvincial PoliticsPublic Policy

Conservatives open up a 19-point lead over the Liberals.

From February 1 to 7, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,398 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Conservatives lead by 19 over the Liberals, tied for the largest national lead we’ve ever measured for the Conservatives.

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 34% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 3, the Liberals down 1, the NDP down 2 and the Greens down 1.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 22 in BC, and 14 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 16-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 8 over the Conservatives who are statistically tied with the Liberals.

If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives up 2 and the Liberals unchanged from our last survey in January across these three regions/provinces.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how younger Canadians have soured on the Liberals, check out my Substack.

Men are 9-points more likely to vote Conservative than women and 5-points and 9-points less likely to vote Liberal and NDP respectively.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 54% say they are open to voting Conservative (up 3 since last month) while, 41% are open to voting NDP (down 2), and 40% are open to voting Liberal (down 2) and the lowest we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.

We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.

We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. The enthusisiam gap has closed a bit between Conservative and Liberal voters – down 3 to 10 this wave.

What else are Canadians thinking?

The mood of the country remains decidedly negative. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 17% feel optimistic about the direction of the country. This mood continues to be very sour.

The federal government’s approval rating is down 4-points from last month to 24%, the lowest we have measured since the Liberals were elected in 2015. 59% disapprove of the job performance of the federal govenrment led by Justin Trudeau.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau are unchanged. 57% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 24% have a positive view for a net score of -33.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also unchanged with 38% viewing him positively and 36% negatively for a net score of +2. Any attempts by the Liberals to weaken Poilievre have not had any impact as of yet.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged. Today 34% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of –1.

Only 14% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. That number has been flat and unchanged since September and is down 7 points from the first time we asked it at the end of June – the last poll before we saw a big shift in voter intentions towards the Conservatives.

Those who say it’s time for a change in government and feel there’s a good alternative to the Liberals is down slightly to 52% but the Conservatives have consolidate more of the change vote gaining 4 points among solid change voters and 4-points among those who want change but don’t feel there’s a good alternative.

It is worth noting that Quebec stands out from the rest of the province when it comes to their views on change and the alternatives.

Outside of Quebec, 56% of Canadians think it’s time for a change and there is a good alternative to the Liberals. In Quebec, that number is only 38%.

In contrast, 45% of Quebecers say it’s time for a change but there isn’t a good alternative to the Liberals, 15-points higher than in the rest of the country. Among this almost half of the Quebec electorate, the BQ gets 49% of the vote to 27% for the Liberals and 12% for the Conservatives. If the Conservatives are going to make more gains in Quebec, they will need to convince this group – who want change – that they are a safe and acceptable option.

What Canadians feel are the top issues facing the country are fairly stable althoughhousing affordability is down 5-points and now tied with healthcare as the second most salient issue. The economy is up 3 while crime and public safety is up 2 (likely due to the focus on auto theft).

In this survey we asked Canadians to what extent different words or phrases describe the current Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau. My goal was to understand whether there is any variation in how people see the government. Overall, the results are not very positive.

But when we drill down and look at the 250 respondents in our survey who say they voted Liberal in 2021 but today are either undecided or voting for another party (Liberal switchers), the story becomes a bit more clear. Clear majorities, and at times large majorities, don’t feel that any of the positive descriptions apply to the Liberal government. For example, 69% think that “transparent and accountable” describes the Trudeau government “not at all” or a “a little”. 64% don’t think it’s focused on the right priorities and 67% don’t think it listens to Canadians. These are people who voted Liberal last time but now say the government is not connecting, listening, and focusing on what matters.

To underscore just how important these feelings are to the Liberal Party’s electorate fortunes, the table below reports the Liberal Party vote share based on how people respond to the question. As is clear, there’s a strong correlation between these variables and there’s almost no difference regardless of the attribute we test.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The political environment continues to be deeply troubling for the Liberals. An historically low approval rating along with an electorate who few see good things in the federal government has led to a 19-point Conservative lead.

As I’ve noted before, we are not experience a period of Poilievre-mania. The Conservative lead – built from those who haven’t voted Conservative in the past two elections – is more about a rejection of the Liberals than an embrace of the Conservatives. That still remains a liability for the Conservatives.

But as long as people remain fatigued with Trudeau and unhappy with how the federal government is handling the key issues they care about, the Liberals will fail to rebuild their past coalition.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,398 Canadian adults from February 1 to 7, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.00%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Is Canada’s consensus on immigration fracturing?

Amidst a housing crisis and a health care system buckling under the weight of demand, a growing number of Canadians appear to be pointing the finger at policies that allowed for a surge in unplanned growth.

Abacus Data CEO joins Althia Raj on her weekly podcast.

Uncategorized

Love and Relationships in 2024: Canadians and Valentine’s Day

It is already February 2024 and Valentine’s Day is right around the corner. As we do with many holidays, we fielded some questions on our latest omnibus survey about Valentine’s Day, with a focus on holiday plans and preferred love languages.

The data below is from a survey fielded from January 18th to 23rd 2024. The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Two-thirds of Canadian couples are celebrating Valentine’s Day this year, up five points from last year. Younger Canadians are far more likely to be celebrating the holidays this year, as are higher-income households. Celebrations look similar across party lines.

In other years we have asked Canadians about their Valentine’s Day plans, and relationship expectations. This year we were curious how Canadians feel about receiving love.

By a landslide, Canadians’ most preferred love language is spending time with their partner (48% say this is their top choice). This is followed by physical touch (20%), kind words (14%), acts of service (13%) and receiving gifts (5%).

Younger Canadians have a greater affinity for gifts than most, but it is still their least favourite way to receive love.

As may be expected, the differences are greatest between men and women. Men are more likely to prefer physical touch, while women are more likely to prefer kind words and acts of service.

Upshot

Despite cost of living concerns it seems that Canadians are making investments in their relationships and celebrating love. If you are still looking for ways to celebrate love with your partner this year, perhaps plan to spend some time together. Statistically speaking, that’s the best way to show them you care.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogConsumer BehaviourHappinessPolls

2024 Travel Snapshot: Canadians on the Move

Between January 4 and 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and above to assess travel intentions for 2024. The survey delved into multiple facets of travel, encompassing motivations, interests, and potential barriers, providing a comprehensive overview of the factors shaping Canadians’ travel decisions in the coming year.

Intentions to Travel in 2024

Half of Canadians (50%) note that they intend to travel in 2024. Among them, 11% have already booked their travel, with an additional 41% who express intentions to book in the near future. These results create a promising outlook for continued growth in the travel industry in 2024.

Notably, 71% of Canadians who intend to travel in 2024 have the intention to engage in domestic travel. Among them, 21% are considering a staycation within their region, 44% plan to explore within their province, and 45% have aspirations for travel within Canada but outside their province. Outside of domestic travel, 57% of Canadians who intend to travel in 2024 express an interest in international exploration. Among them, 31% are considering the United States, and 40% indicate a desire to travel beyond North America.

Motivations for Leisure Travel in 2024

Many Canadians planning to travel in 2024 have relaxation (47%) and visiting family and friends (45%) as their primary motivations. Furthermore, exploring nature (37%) and engaging in cultural exploration (31%) are additional factors driving leisure trips in 2024.

Analyzing the preferred destinations, the data indicates that individuals seeking relaxation (56%), cultural exploration (42%), and culinary experiences (33%) are notably more inclined to travel outside of Canada and the United States for these pursuits. Conversely, those with plans to travel within Canada are significantly more likely to do so for visiting family and friends (49%) and participating in adventure travel (15%) compared to other destinations.

Travel Budget and Barriers

Despite the existing hurdles posed by inflation and the rising cost of living across the country, a considerable number of Canadians intending to travel in 2024 note that they will maintain or increase their travel budget compared to 2023. Specifically, 38% plan to spend more on travel in 2024, while 39% aim to maintain the same spending level as in the previous year.

In crafting their travel budget for 2024, a substantial 75% of Canadians reveal their intention to adjust their budget to allow for travel and tourism opportunities. Among these individuals, 49% plan to cut down on various expenses, such as dining out, entertainment, and non-essential purchases, while 34% intend to reallocate parts of their budget specifically for travel. Results to reveal demographic differences, with younger Canadians, particularly those aged 18 to 29 (55%) and 30 to 44 (42%), being significantly more likely to take on side hustles or part-time work to save for travel. Additionally, older Canadians, notably those aged 60 and above, are more likely to not have to make budget adjustments to accommodate their travel plans (48%).

Examining potential barriers to travel in 2024, Canadians primarily cite financial concerns. The key factors impacting travel plans include the current cost of living (66%), transportation expenses (59%), the low value of the Canadian dollar (53%), and a loss of personal income (47%). These findings highlight the significant influence of economic factors on Canadians’ decision-making regarding travel in the upcoming year.

The Upshot

Despite facing economic challenges, encompassing concerns about the cost of living, transportation expenses, the weakened Canadian dollar, and potential income loss, many Canadians are planning to travel in 2024. Notably, half of Canadians express a desire to travel in the coming year, with almost three-quarters opting for domestic destinations. The primary motivations for travel are varied, including relaxation, visiting family and friends, exploring nature, and cultural exploration. These results present a significant opportunity for Canadian tour operators and DMOs to showcase the country’s attractions and draw travelers to their destinations that align with their primary motivations for travel.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogConsumer Behaviour

Reflections of a cycling tourist on the opportunities for Canadian destinations to welcome the millions who travel for cycling.

As most followers of Abacus Data know, I’m an avid traveler and a dedicated road cyclist. I’ve always believed that cycling is not just a sport or a pastime, but a unique way to experience the world. It offers an intimacy with the landscapes and cultures unlike any other mode of travel.

At Abacus Data, a leading Canadian market research and public opinion firm, we recently conducted a study that delves into the growing trend of cycling tourism in Canada, revealing insights that could shape the future of travel and tourism.

The Joy of Cycling Travel

Traveling with a road bike is a love affair with freedom and exploration. Cycling allows you to see more of a place, its nooks and crannies, the hidden gems that remain unseen from the windows of a car or a tour bus. It’s about feeling the terrain change beneath your wheels, from the smooth asphalt of urban landscapes to the rugged trails of rural backroads. This kind of travel keeps you fit, making every indulgent meal a guilt-free pleasure. After a day of pedaling, there’s nothing quite like the satisfaction of a hearty meal and a glass of fine wine.

I’ve been so lucky to take my bike to some of the most beautiful and bike friendly places in the world.

My favourite destinations exemplify this blend of physical challenge and sensory reward.

Mallorca is a cyclist’s dream with its friendly drivers, perfect roads, and diverse scenery. It’s a place where every turn offers a new vista and every small town invites you with a warm café con leche.

Riding this December around Tenerife, the largest of the Canary Islands

Maui, a Hawaiian Island, with its dramatic coastlines and the awe-inspiring ascent of a volcano, provides a ride that feels like a scene from a movie.

And Gatineau Park, my local haven, offers peaceful, car-free rides amidst breathtaking scenery and wildlife just minutes from downtown Ottawa, making the Nation’s Capital an ideal destination for cyclists.

Insights from the Abacus Data’s Market Research

Our recent survey at Abacus Data sheds light on the state of cycling tourism in Canada.

Approximately 2.5 million Canadians, or 8% of the adult population, have gone on a cycling vacation in the past two years, choosing destinations specifically for their cycling appeal. Notably, this trend is more prevalent among Quebecers (11%) and significantly less so in the Prairies (5%). It’s intriguing to see that younger adults, aged 18 to 29, are more likely to embark on such trips (17%) compared to only 2% of those over 60.

Looking forward, the future seems bright. About 11% of Canadians are planning a cycling-focused vacation in the next two years, with an additional 19% considering it. These statistics not only highlight a growing interest in cycling tourism but also point to a significant market opportunity for destinations across Canada.

The Potential for Destinations, Municipalities, and Communities

The economic impact of cycling tourism can be substantial. Taking Mallorca as a benchmark, which attracts around 200,000 cyclo-tourists annually, generating approximately €300 million (roughly 430 million Canadian dollars), the potential for Canadian communities is there. To become cycling tourism-friendly, destinations must focus on several key aspects:

  • Infrastructure: Good roads with safe, wide shoulders are essential. Cyclists prioritize safety and comfort when choosing their routes. For example, the area around Collingwood, Ontario would be so great for cycling if more of its roads had shoulders.
  • Accommodations: Availability of short-term rentals or hotels that cater to cyclists, offering secure bike storage and maintenance facilities. Cyclists need space to store their bikes. Often they want kitchens to prep meals and a hot tub or spa is an added benefit to relax those sore legs.
  • Community Accessibility: Destinations should have communities close enough to each other, allowing cyclists to easily find places to rest, eat, and explore.

Cycling tourists contribute significantly to local economies. They tend to spend more on accommodations, food, and local experiences. Municipalities, policymakers, and tourism operators can attract more cycling tourists by improving infrastructure, creating bike-friendly policies, and promoting their destinations as cycling hubs.

As a devoted cycling tourist, I can attest that destinations with these qualities not only attract more visitors but also enhance the quality of life for local residents. They foster a culture of fitness, environmental awareness, and community engagement. They also provide a significant source of income to cafes, restaurants, bike shops, retailers, and hotels in the area.

Implications

The increasing interest in cycling vacations is more than a trend; it’s a shift in how people want to experience the world driven by generational change.

As Canadians, we have a unique opportunity to embrace this shift, enhancing our infrastructure and services to welcome cycling tourists. By doing so, we not only diversify and strengthen our tourism industry but also contribute to the well-being of our communities and the environment. The journey ahead is promising, and as we pedal forward, let’s create paths that welcome both the wheels of visitors and the strides of progress.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 5q% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 3 since mid-January) while, 43% are open to voting NDP, and 42% are open to voting Liberal (+1).

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 5 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Consumer BehaviourInsights

Understanding Canadian Perceptions of the Climate Action Incentive Payment and the Carbon Tax: An In-Depth Poll Analysis

In a recent Abacus Data survey, conducted from January 18 to 23, 2024, interviewing 2,199 Canadian adults, offers crucial insights into the public’s perception of the federal government’s national price on pollution, or carbon tax, and specifically the Climate Action Incentive Payment (CAIP). Results of this poll were reported in the Toronto Star yesterday and were asked on our regular national omnibus surveys.

Here are what I think the key takeaways are:

1. Limited Awareness and Belief in Receiving CAIP.

The survey reveals a significant gap in the awareness and belief among Canadians eligible for the CAIP. Only about half of eligible Canadians believe they received a payment. Among those who acknowledge receiving it, 86% associate it with the carbon tax. However, this still represents a minority of the eligible population. This gap highlights a major communication challenge for the federal government and advocates of carbon pricing. The lack of understanding about CAIP’s purpose exacerbates this issue, with only 48% correctly identifying its link to carbon pricing.

2. Carbon Pricing may be a Decisive Factor in the next Federal Election

The price on pollution or carbon tax, while not overwhelmingly unpopular, faces enough opposition to influence election outcomes significantly. Notably, 12% of 2021 Liberal voters not they won’t be voting Liberal partly or entirely because of the carbon tax. This sentiment is particularly pronounced in regions like Ontario and Atlantic Canada, presenting a tangible opportunity for the Conservatives to capitalize on this discontent and explains the double digit lead the Conservatives have build in those regions.

3. Challenges in Government Communications

The Liberal government’s 2016 rules on limiting government communications appear to have inadvertently restricted its ability to effectively convey policy rationales to the public. This is evident in the case of CAIP and pollution pricing. The reliance on earned media, which is becoming increasingly less effective, suggests a possible need to revisit these communication rules to enhance public understanding and support for government policies.

Now let’s dig into the survey results.

Detailed Insights from the Polling Data

1. Awareness and Belief in Receiving CAIP

The survey reveals that only about half of Canadians in eligible jurisdictions believe they received the CAIP payment. This figure points to a significant awareness gap, as the actual number of eligible recipients is much higher. This disparity suggests that the payment – which is designed to build support for the policy – is not being noticed by citizens.

Among the minority who recognize receiving the payment, 86% correctly link it to the carbon tax, indicating effective communication to a segment of the population but an overall failure to reach the broader eligible demographic.

2. Regional Variations in CAIP Awareness:

Regional differences in CAIP awareness are stark. Awareness is highest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 84%, while it drops to 64% in Atlantic Canada. This regional disparity in awareness and perceived eligibility could reflect differing regional media coverage, political discourse, and public engagement with provincial governments.

In populous provinces like Ontario, only half of the residents believe they are eligible for the payment.

3. Misunderstandings About CAIP’s Purpose:

When it comes to understanding CAIP’s purpose, the confusion is widespread. Less than half correctly identify its link to carbon pricing. A significant portion, 23%, erroneously believe it’s a payment to enhance home energy efficiency, while 15% associate it with general cost-of-living support. This confusion dilutes the policy’s perceived effectiveness and relevance, undermining its intended impact as a tool for climate action awareness (see more below on this).

4. Divided Opinion on Carbon Tax Policy:

Canadians are almost evenly split in their perception of the carbon tax, with a slight plurality(44%) viewing it negatively. This divide is not a vast chasm but indicates a significant challenge in garnering broader public support. Notably, the negative perception is more pronounced in strategically important regions like Ontario and Atlantic Canada, areas crucial for federal electoral success. For example, Atlantic Canadians are almost as likely as Albertans to believe the carbon tax is bad policy.

5. Perceptions vs. Reality of Carbon Tax Impacts:

The survey indicates a strong influence of misconception on public opinion. A significant 41% believe that the rebate does not compensate most people for the pollution prices they pay in energy costs (which is a main argument in favour of the policy design). Similarly, 43% doubt the policy’s efficacy in reducing emissions, and 47% attribute broad price increases to the carbon tax. These perceptions are not just knowledge gaps; they are potent narratives that have taken root in the public consciousness, likely fueled bythe political debate and what I believe is insufficient government communication.

And more striking, among those who think the carbon price is a bad policy are even more likely to hold the perceptions noted above. 1 in 3 don’t believe the price on pollution’s intent is to reduce emissions, 6 in 10 don’t believe most get what they pay back in a rebate, and 7 in 10 don’t think a carbon tax will significantly reduce emissions.

6. Financial Impact and Perception:

The belief about the financial impact of the carbon tax is a critical factor in public opinion. 43% of those eligible for CAIP think they would save money if the carbon tax were abolished, a perception more than twice as common as the belief that they would lose money. This sentiment is particularly strong among those who view the policy negatively, indicating a correlation between policy opposition and the perception of financial detriment.

7. Estimated Savings and Policy Opposition:

The estimated savings if the carbon tax were eliminated further underscores the financial concern driving opposition. Those against the policy estimate a higher personal financial impact, with an average perceived saving of $1,226, compared to those who support the policy. This disparity suggests that opposition to the carbon tax is partly rooted in a belief in its significant financial burden, whether accurate or not.

8. Political Implications and Voter Trends:

The political ramifications of these perceptions are profound. One in four Canadians, including a notable 10% of past Liberal voters, cite the carbon tax as a reason for withdrawing their support from the Liberals. This trend is more pronounced in regions like the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, indicating a regional dimension to the policy’s unpopularity that could reshape the federal political landscape.

The Upshot

The survey data underscores three critical points for professionals engaged in policy communications and advocacy:

  1. Enhancing CAIP Awareness: There is a pressing need to improve awareness and understanding of CAIP among Canadians. Effective communication strategies must be developed to bridge this knowledge gap.
  2. Addressing Carbon Tax Opposition: The carbon tax’s potential electoral impact necessitates a nuanced approach to address the concerns of those opposed while reinforcing the policy’s benefits.
  3. Revisiting Government Communication Strategies: The current limitations on government communications are proving counterproductive in explaining complex policies like CAIP and pollution pricing. A revision of these rules could be instrumental in fostering better public comprehension and support.

This research not only provides a snapshot of the current Canadian sentiment towards the carbon tax and CAIP but also highlights the intricate challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for policymakers, communicators, and advocates. Opponents are clearly winning the debate and public opinion on this issue could be decisive in the next election.

Good research like this can help guide policy communications, stakeholder engagement, and policy design.

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsEnvironment & Climate Change

PCs lead by 11 over Ontario Liberals according to the latest Abacus Data poll.

Ontario’s political landscape, as of early 2024, presents an intriguing picture of continuity amidst subtle shifts. Yesterday, the Toronto Star reported on this poll that was shared exclusively with Robert Benzie.

The Progressive Conservative Party, led by Doug Ford, continues to hold the reins, but not without potential undercurrents of change. The Ontario Liberals and the New Democratic Party, in their pursuit of being the natural alternative to the PCS are carving distinct paths in this competitive space, influenced by regional allegiances and demographic divergences.

Key Findings

Electoral Prospects: The PCs, under Doug Ford’s leadership, would likely secure victory if a provincial election were held today, with 38% of the vote – a marginal decrease of 1% from December. The Ontario Liberals, now led by Bonnie Crombie, are second at 27% (unchanged from December), while the NDP, under Marit Stiles, trails closely at 23%. In short, stability.

Regional Dynamics: The PCs demonstrate a consistent lead across Ontario, though their margin narrows to 5 points in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, excluding Metro Toronto.

Demographic Trends: There is significant gender gap in vote intentions, with the PCs commanding a 21-point lead among men, and a virtual tie with the Liberals and NDP among women voters. Age-wise, the PCs enjoy robust support among those aged 45 and above, whereas they are on par with the NDP among the younger electorate (under 45).

Approval Ratings: The Ford government’s approval rating stands at 29%, marking a nominal dip since December, while the disapproval rate remains static at 48%. Doug Ford’s personal favorability is net negative (-19), in contrast to the mildly positive scores of Bonnie Crombie (+3) and Marit Stiles (+4).

Accessible Voter Pool Parity: The accessible voter pools for the PCs, NDP, and Liberals are remarkably similar, with the PCs and NDP each appealing to 48% of voters, and the Liberals slightly behind at 47%.

Undecided Voters: A substantial 23% of respondents are undecided, a figure notably higher than the 15% national average in our recent Canadian politics survey. This includes 15% of 2022 PC voters, highlighting a potential vulnerability for Ford’s party.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The PCs under Doug Ford hold a strong position in Ontario’s political landscape though it is laden with subtle complexities. With the opposition divided almost equally between the Liberals and NDP, the PCs find an advantage in this split. Yet, the Ford government’s tepid approval rating along with a notable group of former PC supporters now in doubt, poses a challenge to their long-term stability along with several issues still confronting the government.

This changing story, characterized by a high rate of undecided voters and similar voter pools across parties, shapes an evolving and dynamic scene for Ontario politics as we move through 2024.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 955 eligible voters in Ontario adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

What Poilievre’s shift from underdog to front-runner means for his strategy in 2024

In mid-December, Conservatives experienced a slight dip of five points in an Abacus Data poll while the Liberals were up four points. Despite the governing party’s excitement at the time, the poll nonetheless left the Conservatives still 10 points ahead of the Liberals.

While that poll might have been a statistical dip practically within the margin of error, it came at a time where Conservatives were under fire for voting against the bill updating the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement, ostensibly protesting its mention of carbon taxes, although the Liberals accused Conservatives of being soft on Russia. Meanwhile, Poilievre was threatening to keep Parliament sitting over Christmas and ruin the Liberals holidays for stymieing a carbon tax exemption for farmers, noted Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

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