In January, Abacus Data asked Canadians in provinces where the federal carbon tax is applied whether they had received a payment from the federal government in the past week. Of the 49 per cent who said yes, the vast majority correctly identified it as a rebate connected to the carbon tax. But that still left 51 per cent who said they hadn’t received a rebate.
Abacus Data sets its sights on continued growth and team optimization with two recent hires and a big promotion for its longest serving team member.
“We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and insightful polling and market research firm,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “We are deeply honoured to count some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and unions amongst our clients.”
“Abacus Data is powered by an ethos of enlightened hospitality,” said Coletto, “And we are thrilled to welcome Christine Serbu as a Senior Consultant and Rachel Luczon as a Field Specialist & Analyst to help us continue to deliver on that promise and provide current and prospective clients with best-in-class service.”
Christine is an accomplished and well-rounded market research professional with over 10 years’ experience working directly with clients in the public, private, and not-for-profit sectors. Christine is a proven project manager with sharp eyes, a critical mind, and a penchant for storytelling. Prior to joining Abacus, Christine refined her skills working with some of the largest market research firms in Canada.
“I’m thrilled to be joining Abacus and supporting their expansion across Canada. The team shares the same core values I do – work excellence, customer focus, and integrity – which made joining a no-brainer,“ said Serbu. “I’m excited to see what the future brings.”
Christine specializes in quantitative research and strives for excellence in every project – big or small. “Christine is known for her dedication to customer service, unyielding quest for improvement, and enthusiasm for creating order out of chaos,” said Abacus Data President, Ihor Korbabicz. “These qualities, along with her ample experience, make her the perfect fit for our team and will help us serve new markets and industries.”
Based in Edmonton, Christine is well-poised to service and expand the business in Western Canada.
Abacus Data is also pleased to formally welcome Rachel Luczon as a Field Specialist and Analyst working out of the Toronto office. Rachel has a background in neuroscience and psychology combined with ample experience conducting behavioural science research, examining the factors that influence decision-making.
“We have seen a marked uptick in earned media coverage for our polling releases in recent months and are delighted that our work is providing meaningful insight into how Canadians are thinking, feeling, and behaving in this uncertain time,” said Coletto. “In conjunction with our regular contributions to the national conversation as the official pollster of the Toronto Star, this coverage is helping us reach new audiences and connect with new clients. We need agile, obsessively curious, detail-oriented research professionals like Christine and Rachel to remain uncompromising in our commitment to excellence.”
“Joining the dynamic team at Abacus Data was an easy decision! With my passion for producing high-quality data, joining Abacus and supporting its mission to deliver accurate and impactful insights to clients and Canadians just made sense,” said Luczon. “I am excited to embark on this journey with a team that shares my commitment to excellence and a relentless pursuit of understanding the ever-evolving opinion landscape.”
Rachel will expand our capacity to field surveys and analysis, furthering our commitment to provide clients with actionable insights on time and on budget.
Further to new additions Christine and Rachel, Abacus Data’s longest serving team member, Jonathan Nadeau has been promoted to Senior Advisor to the CEO and Director, Special Projects. Since joining Abacus in 2011, Jonathan has been a key player in driving the success and continued evolution of the company.
“From humble beginnings as an intern to now serving as Senior Advisor to the CEO and Director, Special Projects, my journey with Abacus Data has been nothing short of transformative, said Jonathan Nadeau. “I look forward to working alongside my long-time friend, boss, and mentor, David Coletto, to drive even greater success for Abacus Data in the years ahead.”
Beginning his career at Abacus shortly after its inception, Jonathan’s journey has been marked by his singular dedication and adaptability. In his new capacity, Jonathan will work hand-in-glove with the CEO to action new ideas, develop original products and services to expand access and simplify the client journey.
“I am delighted to be able to collaborate more closely with Jonathan,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “Jon understands our work better than anyone and continues to bring creative solutions to complex problems.”
Celebrating its 14th anniversary this year, Abacus Data quickly established itself as a leader in public opinion and market research. Working with some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and public sector organizations, Abacus Data helps clients make better decisions through high-quality data, insights, and strategic advice.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
What to make of the result from the Durham byelection? David Coletto of Abacus Data and Shachi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute weigh in on CTV’s Question Period
From February 29 to March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some updated data comparing perceptions of the Trudeau government’s performance in areas such as housing, healthcare, managing the economy, and managing government finances.
Conservatives lead by 18 over the Liberals. It’s been 658 straight days that the Conservatives have led the Liberals in Abacus Data polling.
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 34% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 1, the Liberals are unchanged, and the NDP is down 1. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen stability in vote intentions with the Conservatives consistently in the low 40s and the Liberals stuck in the low to mid 20s.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 22 in BC, and 13 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 15-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 8 over the Liberals with the Conservatives just two points back and statistically tied with the Liberals for second.
If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives holding at 43%, the Liberals up 1 to 27%.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here. And tune into (and subscribe!) Eric Grenier’s podcast later this week as we deep dive Canadian polling trends and breakouts by demographic, regional, and political groups.
The Conservatives continue to capture a larger share of the vote among both men and women. Liberal vote share is the same among men and women while the NDP does 9-points better among women than it does among men. For a deep dive on the differences between men and women, check out this analysis by my colleague Oksana Kishchuk released on Friday.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 50% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 2 since earlier this month) while, 39% are open to voting NDP (down 1), and 39% are open to voting Liberal (unchanged) and the lowest we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.
We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.
We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. Enthusiasm for voting NDP is down 5 from last month while Liberal enthusiasim is up slightly by 3 points.
What else are Canadians thinking?
The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.
The federal government’s approval rating is improved slightly from last month at 26%, up 2. 58% disapprove of the job performance of the federal govenrment led by Justin Trudeau, down a single point and within the margin of error.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau have improved marginally. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 25% have a positive view for a net score of -33.
In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also largely unchanged with 38% viewing him positively and 34% negatively for a net score of +4. Any attempts by the Liberals to shift perceptions about Poilievre have yet to bare any fruit.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also largely unchanged. Today 35% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of -2.
15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged from last month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is back up to 54%, the high point in our tracking. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.
The view that the Conservatives will win the next election continues to grow. Today, 47% think the Conservatives will win the next election (up 2 since last wave) and up 8 points since October 2023. 19% think the Liberals will win, while 8% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.
Finally, in this survey we reasked questions we asked in March 2023 evaluating how Canadians feel about the Trudeau government’s performance in some specific policy areas.
The results reveal several things.
First, negative impressions are up right across the board, increasing from 6 to 9 points. This reflects the movement we’ve seen in government approval since last spring.
Areas where the Trudeau government get relatively better evaluations are in its handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (51% positive or acceptable), dealing with the provinces (44% positive or acceptable) and running an ethical government (40% positive or acceptable).
But it gets low scores for its handling of housing (23%), dealing with the rising cost of living (26%), and managing government finances (33%). When it comes to managing the economy, 35% think the federal government has done a good or acceptable job while 61% describe it as negative with an 8-point rise in negative impressions.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Public opinion about Canadians politics is firmly in a new normal with an unpopular Prime Minister, a poor performing federal government, and a relatively popular leader of the opposition. Since last spring, perceptions of the government’s performance in several policy areas have all become markedly negative – especially in areas where the government has tried to put a great focus including housing, inflation, and the economy.
It really does feel like the Trudeau government is pushing against a thick, tall wall where nothing it does is seen positively by its detractors. Whether it is closed minds or distraction, Canadians are not being persuaded that Mr. Trudeau or his government are effectively managing the anxieties in their life. This might change if micro- and macro-economic conditions improve, but as my colleague Eddie Sheppard will report later this week, expectations for the rest of 2024 are not great. Low expectations are easier to meet and exceed, but it means that the public remains deeply skeptical, anxious, and in the Prime Minister’s own words, “grumpy”.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 28 to March 6,, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Today, on International Women’s Day, we are taking a look at some of the top trends in Canadian politics, with a gendered lens. The data below is taken from an online survey of n= 2,125
First up is the direction of the country. Men and women are equally pessimistic about the direction of the country, and the world more generally. Given how steep the decline of impressions has been overall, it is no surprise that men and women feel the same about how the last couple of years have gone.
Economic outlook appears to be the driving force for pessimism for both men and women though the specific stresses are a bit different. The rising cost of living is clearly at the top of the list for both men and women- 20+ points higher than any other issue for both men and women. Still, women are more focused on the microeconomic impacts while men are more concerned about the macro-economic consequences.
39% of men place the economy in their list of top 3 concerns, compared to 31% of women. While 51% of women rank housing affordability and accessibility in their top 3 issues compared to 42% of men. Women are also far more likely to associate the cost-of-living crisis with their own financial situation. 29% of women say they are getting ahead and saving right now- 8-points lower than men.
Men and women
The survey was conducted with 2,125 Canadian adults from February 15 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.12%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
In a recent survey conducted by Abacus Data, exclusively provided to the Toronto Star, from February 15 to 21, 2024, a sample of 1,000 eligible Ontario voters was interviewed to capture the current political climate within the province.
The Progressive Conservatives, led by Doug Ford, have a14-point lead over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals. Since the beginning of February, the PCs have seen a marginal increase of 1 point, with the Ontario Liberals holding steady. Conversely, the Ontario NDP has witnessed a decline of 4 points, marking the lowest level of support since the last provincial election. The Ontario Greens are up 2 points to 8% across the province.
Regional and Demographic Dynamics:
Government Performance and Leader Impressions:
Public Perception of Cost of Living Influences:
When Ontarians were asked which level of government has most contributed to increasing their cost of living, a significant 64% pointed to the federal government, while 36% attributed it to the Ford government.
Key Takeaways:
1. Doug Ford’s personal brand, built on a taxpayer-first philosophy and dedication to affordability, provides a buffer against the downward trends affecting other incumbents.
2. A fragmented opposition has given the PCs and Ford a substantial advantage in the province.
3. The Ontario NDP is experiencing internal and external pressures, with the Liberals, under Bonnie Crombie, starting to solidify their position as the primary alternative to the Ford administration.
4. The NDP’s internal challenges and the rise of a resilient Green Party pose significant risks to their position, with the potential for the Liberals to capitalize on these weaknesses.
5. Despite Ford’s strong showing in voter intentions, his position is not unassailable, reflected in the government’s overall approval ratings, suggesting potential vulnerabilities.
Analysis:
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have settled into a comfortable lead, buoyed by a personal brand that resonates with Ontarians’ concerns over living costs. However, beneath the surface of voter intention, the political landscape is fluid, with the NDP’s decline and internal strife offering an opening for the Liberals. Meanwhile, the Green Party’s incremental gains hint at a broader desire for alternatives among the electorate. Ford’s leadership, while currently strong, stands on a precipice, where the balance of public approval and the shifting sands of opposition dynamics could influence the future political narrative in Ontario.
Methodology:
The survey targeted 1,000 eligible voters across Ontario, ensuring a representative sample that reflects the province’s demographic composition. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Data were weighted according to census statistics on age, gender, and region to ensure sample representativity.
The survey was funded and conducted by Abacus Data.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
In light of recent warnings by Federal Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan that this year’s wildfire season could surpass the severity of the last, a new poll conducted by Abacus Data sheds light on Canadians’ perspectives on a measure to combat the growing wildfire threat. Minister Sajjan’s cautionary statement last week, describing the upcoming wildfire season’s forecast as “alarming but not surprising,” underscores the urgency of addressing this escalating challenge.
The survey reveals overwhelming support among Canadians for a proposal by BC MP Richard Cannings to establish a national, non-military forest fighting force. This specialized unit would be deployed across Canada to assist in combating forest fires and could be offered as a resource to other countries during periods without domestic fires. According to the poll, 3 in 4 Canadians endorse this initiative, with only 11% opposing it and 14% undecided.
This support is remarkably consistent across the country, with 74% in BC, 76% in Alberta, 75% in Ontario, 71% in Quebec, and 78% in Atlantic Canada backing the idea. Political affiliation does not significantly alter this view, with Liberal supporters showing the highest enthusiasm at 85% approval, followed closely by Conservatives at 75% and NDP supporters at 76%. Moreover, the data indicates that this consensus extends beyond political lines and is uniform regardless of one’s belief in the changing patterns of wildfire severity and frequency.
The broad-based support for Cannings’ proposal can be largely attributed to the growing concern among Canadians regarding the future of wildfires in the country. A significant 65% of respondents anticipate an increase in the severity of forest fires over the next five years, with 66% expecting them to become more frequent.
This polling data suggests that Canadians across all demographics and political spectrums recognize the need for more robust national strategies to address the wildfire crisis. The widespread approval of a dedicated forest fighting force reflects a collective understanding that the challenges posed by wildfires, exacerbated by climate change, demand innovative and unified responses.
The Upshot
Last summer’s wildfires, which affected regions across Canada, have evidently left a lasting impression on the public consciousness, emphasizing that wildfires are not isolated incidents but a national problem requiring a national solution. The consensus around the establishment of a national forest fighting force underscores the urgency with which Canadians from all walks of life seek proactive measures to protect their communities, landscapes, and ecosystems from the ravages of wildfires.
The poll results represent a clear mandate from Canadians for their leaders to take decisive action in the face of an increasingly volatile and unpredictable wildfire season. As the threat of wildfires grows more acute, the call for a national, non-military forest fighting force is a testament to the country’s collective will to seek out and support solutions that safeguard the environment and public safety on a national scale. This unified stance sends a powerful message about the importance of foresight, preparedness, and cooperation in addressing one of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From February 15 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,125 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some new data on who Canadians prefer as Prime Minister and how people feel about the focus the Liberal government is giving to some key issues.
Note, this survey was done following the Auditor General’s report on the ArriveCan app but before news leaked about the deal between the NDP and Liberals on national pharmacare.
Conservatives lead by 17 over the Liberals. It’s been 644 straight days that the Conservatives have led the Liberals in Abacus Data polling.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are down 2, the Liberals are unchanged, and the NDP is up 1. For all intents and purposes, little has changed in the ballot. 15% of Canadians say they are undecided including 13% of those who say they voted Liberal in 2021 (it’s 5% among past Conservative voters).
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 14 in BC, and 16 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 20-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 7 over the Liberals with the Conservatives six points further behind.
If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives and Liberals both down 1 with the Conservatives ahead by 17 in these three provinces/regions.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here.
Men are 10-points more likely to vote Conservative than women and 4-points and 7-points less likely to vote Liberal and NDP respectively. The Conservatives lead by 20 among men under 30, while the NDP is ahead by 5 over the Conservatives among women under 30. The Conservatives lead by 25 among men 60+ while the Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied among women 60+.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 52% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 2 since earlier this month) while, 40% are open to voting NDP (down 1), and 39% are open to voting Liberal (down 1) and the lowest we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.
We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.
We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. The enthusisiam gap is consistent with what we found earlier this month.
What else are Canadians thinking?
The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.
The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged from earlier in the month at 24%, the lowest we have measured since the Liberals were elected in 2015. 59% disapprove of the job performance of the federal govenrment led by Justin Trudeau, also unchanged.
It’s also clear that impressions of the federal government’s performance are strongly linked to impressions of Justin Trudeau. One moves with the other. 92% of those with a negative impression of Justin Trudeau also disapprove of the federal government’s job performance.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau have become marginally more negative. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 23% have a positive view for a net score of -36.
In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also unchanged with 37% viewing him positively and 36% negatively for a net score of +1. Any attempts by the Liberals to shift perceptions about Poilievre have yet to bare any fruit.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged. Today 35% have a negative impression compared with 32% who have a positive one for a net score of -3.
15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, up 1 point from earlier in the month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is down 3 points in a month to 51%. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.
What Canadians feel are the top issues facing the country are fairly stable although housing affordability is up 2 points while healthcare is down 2. The percentage rating the economy as a top issue is up 3 over the past two weeks.
Compared with last Fall, more Canadians think the Conservatives will win the next federal election. Almost half of Canadians believe the Conservatives will win the next election, up 6 points since October 2023. 19% think the Liberals will, down 2 while 10% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.
We also reasked who Canadian prefer to be Prime Minister – Trudeau or Poilievre. Poilievre is ahead by 10, largely unchanged from last month. Among current NDP supporters 66% side with Trudeau while 34% side with Poilievre. Among BQ supporters, 64% side with Trudeau while 36% side with Poilievre.
In this survey, we asked people who they prefer between Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh. The results are the only marginally better for Mr. Singh. 54% prefer Poilievre while 46% prefer Singh. Among currentl Liberal supporters, 73% would choose Mr. Singh while 27% would choose Mr. Poilievre. Among BQ supporters, 60% side with Singh while 40% side with Poilievre.
Finally, in this survey we reasked questions we asked in January 2023 exploring whether Canadians feel the Liberal government is focused too much, too little, or about the right amount on several issues.
The results reveal several things.
When it comes to the cost of living (the top issue for about 3 in 4 Canadians), housing, and crime and public safety at least six in ten believe the government is not focused enough as they should be. Compared with a year ago, those who think the government isn’t focused enough on the cost of living is up 5-points.
In contrast, at least a quarter of Canadians think the government is focused too much on climate change, indigenous reconciliation, and Russia’s invasion of Ukreaine.
Climate change is a very interesting issue. It is the most polarizing of any issue with about equal numbers of people feeling the government is too focused on the issue than those who think it is not focused enough.
We also reasked whether people think the Conservative Party, if it formed government with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister, would focus more, about the same, or less than the Liberal government on the same issues.
Almost half of Canadians think a Conservative government will focus more than the Liberal government on the cost of living (up 7 since last year), growing the economy (up 2), reducing the deficit (up 1) and the cost of housing (up 5).
At the same time, a third or more believe a Conservative government would be less focused on climate change, Russia’s invasion on Ukraine (down 4 since last year), and indigenous reconciliation.
These results are noteworthy in a few ways:
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Auditor General’s report on the ArriveCan app does not seem to have fundamentally changed public opinion about the Liberal government or the Prime Minister – suggesting the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau may have hit the bottom of their support.
The political climate remains deeply challenging for the Liberals, highlighted by a significant lead for the Conservatives. This enduring lead in vote intention has now stretched to over 644 days in our tracking. The stability of this trend suggests a deep-rooted dissatisfaction and disappointment with the current government and one that does not appear to be improving at all.
This poll underscores a clear message from Canadians: there’s a significant disconnect between the government’s current priorities and the urgent issues of cost of living, housing, and public safety that matter most to the electorate. Any efforts the government has made to shift perceptions on his front has yet to make any impact.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,125 Canadian adults from February 15 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
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Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Between January 18 and 23, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey with 2,199 Canadians aged 18 and above to examine their attitudes towards financial services, banking, and technology. The survey examines Canadians’ digital literacy, financial technology knowledge, banking preferences, and the potential of open banking adoption. This research was paid for by Abacus Data and was conducted to help inform a presentation I gave at a recent open banking/FinTech meeting.
Despite overall satisfaction with traditional banking, concerns are raised about fees, interest rates, and limited branch availability, highlighting the potential for open banking to address these challenges and offer personalized financial solutions.
Digital Literacy and FinTech Knowledge
The results show that just 38% of individuals feel confident in their digital literacy, while only 30% claim proficiency in financial literacy, and a mere 15% demonstrate familiarity with financial technologies. Moreover, the findings reveal a clear generational divide, as younger Canadians (aged 18-29 and 30-44) demonstrate significantly higher levels of digital literacy (51% and 47% respectively) and comprehension of financial technology (23% and 21% respectively) in contrast to older Canadians (aged 60 and above), where only 25% exhibit digital literacy and a mere 9% possess knowledge of financial technologies.
Assessing Satisfaction with Personal Banking Solutions
Overall, Canadians are generally quite satisfied with their primary financial institutions. Specifically, 72% are satisfied with their personal banking, 70% trust their institution, and 69% feel that their financial needs are being met. Additionally, 60% feel their current financial institution delivers personalized services tailored to their individual requirements. However, demographic analysis reveals differences, with younger Canadians less in agreement compared to older demographics across the statements presented. Thus, while overall satisfaction with banking solutions appears high among Canadians, demographic disparities and preferences for banking methods underscore the importance of tailored services and targeted communication strategies to meet diverse customer needs effectively.
This may also signal a shift in preferences over time as younger generations enter the market and older ones leave it.
Perceived Effectiveness of the Canadian Banking System
Despite Canadians’ overall satisfaction and trust in their financial institutions, findings suggest that certain needs are not being sufficiently met.
Only 51% believe that the Canadian banking system adapts to changing customer needs, 45% feel it addresses the financial concerns of the average Canadian, and a mere 44% perceive it as open and transparent. Moreover, just 27% agree that the system prioritizes customers’ best interests over profits – a concern we find with most private sector, for-profit businesses.
These results highlight a disparity between personal satisfaction with individual financial institutions and the perception of the banking system’s effectiveness in meeting Canadians’ needs.
Navigating Challenges in Canadian Banking Solutions
When evaluating the current challenges Canadians encounter with their banking solutions, high fees (32%) and unfavorable interest rates (30%) emerge as the most significant concerns. Additionally, 17% of Canadians express frustrations over limited branch availability or hours, while 16% cite poor customer service and security concerns.
It’s also worth mentioning that a small proportion of Canadians cite a lack of control over their financial data and information and a lack of digital services as a top concern. This is important when trying to understand the demand for open banking and fintech.
Finally, there is a sizeable portion of the public who have no issues with the banking system. Close to 4 in 10 Canadians say there are no significant challenges with their current banking options.
The findings also indicate a shift in the challenges encountered by Canadians today, reflecting generational differences. While issues like high fees and interest rates affect many Canadians across age groups, younger Canadians face unique challenges such as limited operating hours, security apprehensions, lack of control over their financial data, and complex account management when compared to those aged 60 and above. Although these concerns may only affect a minority of Canadians, they offer preliminary evidence of the market’s response to generational shifts.
Open Banking Awareness Among Canadians
When it comes to open banking, 57% of Canadians acknowledge being unfamiliar, while a mere 12% claim to be familiar with the concept.
Familiarity is more prevalent among younger Canadians (18-29: 17% aware; 30-44: 19% aware) and among current users of online banking (24% aware). In contrast, older Canadians (60+) and those who currently use traditional banking express lower levels of familiarity, with 66% and 61% respectively stating they are unfamiliar with open banking.
Despite initial unfamiliarity, findings suggest a early interest in adopting open banking among Canadians once they become acquainted with it. Specifically, 1 in 4 Canadians express likelihood in adopting open banking, while 17% indicate a need for more information, followed by 30% who remain neutral. This interest is particularly pronounced among younger demographics, highlighting a notable generational divide in adoption readiness.
However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty over whether open banking will be beneficial to consumers.
Navigating Concerns and Opportunities in Open Banking Adoption Among Canadians
In the realm of open banking, Canadians’ primary concerns revolve around data security (63%), privacy (62%), and the potential for unauthorized access (54%) as many individuals perceive their data to be more accessible and vulnerable through open banking solutions. Given these apprehensions, it’s necessary for open banking solutions to prioritize innovation while ensuring consumer protection and data security measures.
Beyond security and privacy worries, many Canadians express concerns stemming from a lack of knowledge. Specifically, 40% of respondents highlight their limited understanding of the benefits of open banking as a source of unease.
The Importance of Customization and Personalization in Open Banking Evaluation
While open banking remains unfamiliar to many Canadians, its potential benefits are understood by some. Notably, 41% are willing to share data for real-time fraud detection. Additionally, there is some interest in personalized benefits, with 24% interested in tailored loan offers and 1 in 5 Canadians intrigued by simplified loan approvals, personalized financial guidance, and automated savings options. It is important to note, however, that interest for the benefits of open banking is limited and most of the benefits don’t appeal to the majority of Canadians. This may be due to a lack of interest and/or due to a lack of knowledge about open banking in general.
Once more, these findings underscore a notable generational gap, with younger Canadians showing a significantly higher propensity to value the influence of personalization, customization, integration, and speed of services offered through open banking, in contrast to Canadians aged 60 and above.
The Upshot
Although satisfaction with personal financial institutions remains high, Canadians acknowledge persistent challenges, such as adapting to meet their needs, transparency, and prioritizing Canadians’ best interests. Addressing these concerns necessitates collaboration among financial institutions, regulators, and policymakers to foster a fair and transparent banking environment that effectively serves Canadians’ changing needs.
In this context, the emergence of open banking presents an opportunity to address some of these challenges and deliver more personalized and innovative financial services. However, there is a clear need for increased awareness and education about open banking among Canadians, particularly among older generations and traditional bank users.
Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much demand for it. The challenge with open banking is that many Canadians don’t understand it and, as a result, they are resistant to embracing it. We have witnessed similar technological advancements where people were resistant to change like the transition to email.
At present, open banking lacks substantial demand. A primary obstacle it encounters is the widespread lack of understanding among many Canadians, which fosters resistance to its adoption. This resistance reflects patterns seen in past technological advancements, including the shift to email, the advent of cellular phones evolving into smartphones, and the emergence of online shopping. In each instance, initial resistance gave way to widespread acceptance as people recognized the benefits of these innovations.
Advocating for the implementation of open banking should be a priority in the financial service sector, as it holds promise for addressing numerous challenges Canadians encounter. With a focus on consumer protection, data security, and customized services, open banking has the capacity to improve financial inclusion and enable individuals to make better-informed financial choices.
Fostering digital literacy, advancing open banking awareness, and advocating for consumer-centric policies are crucial steps towards creating a more inclusive and resilient financial ecosystem in Canada. By addressing these key areas, the industry can better equip Canadians to navigate the complexities of modern banking and improve their financial well-being.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.09%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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In the realm of public policy, advocacy, and public affairs, understanding and navigating public opinion is crucial for achieving meaningful and lasting change. At Abacus Data, we specialize in deciphering the complex tapestry of public sentiments to guide organizations through the intricate process of policy development, advocacy campaigns, and public engagement.
Our approach is centered around a unique and highly effective model we call the Three Thread Framework. This framework is designed to unravel the nuances of public opinion, ensuring that our clients can effectively align their strategies with the realities of public perceptions and political feasibility.
Think of it as part of the Abacus Data method. One of the things that makes us unique, and what I think, excellent researchers and storytellers.
Before delving into the intricacies of the Three Thread Framework, it is essential to acknowledge the foundational work of political scientist John Kingdon, which serves as the bedrock for our approach at Abacus Data.
Kingdon’s seminal research on agenda-setting and public policy formation introduced the concept of “policy windows” and the “streams” model of problem, policy, and politics. His work illuminates how certain conditions align to make the adoption of new policies feasible. Inspired by Kingdon’s insights, the Three Thread Framework builds upon the idea that successful policy change requires the convergence of problem recognition, viable solutions, and political will. This theoretical underpinning ensures that our framework is grounded in a deep understanding of the dynamics of policy development and public opinion.
The Essence of the Three Thread Framework
The Three Thread Framework is built on the premise that successful policy change or advocacy efforts require the convergence of three critical components of public opinion:
Applying the Framework in Public Opinion Research
At Abacus Data, we harness the Three Thread Framework not only as a lens through which to view public affairs and policy challenges but also as a guiding principle in the design and analysis of our public opinion research. Here’s how we integrate this framework into our research methodologies:
Synthesizing Insights for Strategic Action
The data and insights gleaned from applying the Three Thread Framework inform our strategic recommendations to clients. By understanding where the public stands in terms of problem recognition, solution viability, and political will, we can craft tailored messaging strategies, advocacy campaigns, and public engagement plans that resonate with target audiences and move the needle on policy issues.
Applying the Framework: Real-World Examples
The Three Thread Framework has been applied successfully in various contexts, from building support for major infrastructure projects to advocating for new initiatives in federal budgets, and even in efforts to halt undesirable policy changes. Here are a few illustrative examples:
Why the Three Thread Framework Matters
The Three Thread Framework is not just a theoretical model; it is a practical tool that has proven effective in guiding successful advocacy and policy change efforts. By ensuring that all three threads are addressed, organizations can increase their chances of success, whether they are advocating for change or trying to prevent it. This framework helps organizations to strategize their communications, refine their messaging, and target their efforts more effectively, ultimately leading to more favorable outcomes.
Let’s Collaborate
At Abacus Data, we are proud of our track record in using the Three Thread Framework to help our clients navigate the complexities of public opinion and achieve their public affairs objectives. Our team of experienced researchers and strategists is adept at applying this framework to a wide range of issues, ensuring that our clients’ efforts are grounded in a deep understanding of public sentiment and political realities.
Whether you are working to build support for a major infrastructure project, advocating for new initiatives in federal, provincial, or municipal budgets, or striving to initiate or slow policy change, our team can help you level-up your public affairs research and strategy. We invite you to reach out to discuss how we can support your team in making a meaningful impact through informed, strategic engagement with public opinion and policy processes.
Get in touch with us today to learn more.