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September 16, 2014

By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

For interviews or quotes, or to find out more about our services, please contact either Chairman Bruce Anderson at banderson@abacusdata.ca (613-882-0929) or CEO David Coletto at david@abacusdata.ca (613-232-2806)

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What the people of Scotland decide about their future has captured attention around the world, including in Canada.  And, if it were up to us, Scotland would remain within the UK.

Two thirds (67%) of those polled in our nationwide survey said that they would prefer Scotland to vote No this week, while one in three (33%) would prefer to see an independent Scotland.

Most of those offering an opinion indicate it is a soft preference (61%), rather than a strong one (39%).  There are some important differences among different parts of the Canadian population:

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Quebecers (46%), New Democrats (43%), and those under 45 (43%) are all more inclined to prefer an independent Scotland.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, those over 60 (19%), CPC voters (20%) and Albertans (21%) are least comfortable with that idea.

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The patterns suggest some underlying strains of nationalist empathy in Quebec as well the left-right tension that exists between many voters living in Scotland and the Conservative government in London.

The fact that preferences are mostly soft in nature suggests that while Canadians would generally prefer no change, most would be ready to accept the idea of an independent Scotland, if that is the result that emerges at the end of this week.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,068 respondents by Abacus Data, September12 to 14, 2014. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the world’s leading provider of online research samples.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate research based advice to our clients.  We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value added insight.

Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at https://www.abacusdata.ca/

Good Decisions Require Good Data.