Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ontario PCs lead by 20 + Opinions on Homeless Encampments and Highway 401
October 15, 2024
From October 3 to 10, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 997 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about Premier Ford’s idea to build a tunnel under the 401 and on homeless encampments across the province.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 20 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 24%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.
All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous survey but represents the widest lead for the PCs since we started tracking following the 2022 election.

Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 31 points in the GTHA, by 18 in eastern Ontario, and by 15 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 14.

The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (21-point lead), lead by 11 among women, and have opened up a 25-point lead among Ontarians aged 60 and over.


Doug Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady over the past two months.
34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (down 2), while negative views are down slightly to 42%, for a net score of -8.
Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -9 (a slight deterioration) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has an even net score (unchanged). For Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, 20% have a positive impression compared with 21% with a negative view (unchanged).


Public Opinion and Perceptions about Homeless Encampments
In this survey, we also asked some questions about what people think about homeless encampments across the province.
84% of Ontarians believe homeless encampments are a problem with 54% thinking they are a big problem. Those in Toronto and southwestern Ontario are more likely to think the issue is a big problem. There’s also a direct relationship between problem perception and age.

When asked which level of government Ontarians believe is most responsible for dealing with homeless encampments, 43% believe the provincial government is most responsible, followed by the federal government at 32% and 1 in 4 who think it’s municipal government responsibility.

Of note, 37% of PC Party supporters think the province is most responsible for dealing with the homeless encampments.

This view is reinforced by the perceptives that most Ontarians (62%) think the provincial government is not doing enough to help municipalities deal with homeless encampments. Another 5% think they are doing more than enough while 17% think they are doing enough.

42% of PC Party supporters don’t think the province is doing enough.

When asked to rate performance of the Prime Minister, Premier, and Mayor of Toronto on handling homeless encampments, few rate any of the three’s performance in a positive way. 63% think Prime Minister Trudeau has done a poor job, 53% rate the Premier’s performance as poor, while 48% rate Mayor Chow’s performance poorly (including 49% in Toronto).

When we ask whether people would support or oppose several possible measures to address the issue, we find broad support for all of them.

Finally, when we ask which approach people would prefer to see taken to address homeless encampments in Ontario, 80% prefer a more compassionate approach while 20% want to see the encampments removed and laws enforced.


Highways 401 & 407
The survey also asked Ontarians their views on two ideas that have been floated by Premier Ford relating to transportation around Toronto.
When the survey was conducted 2 in 3 Ontarians were aware of the Premier’s announcement to conduct a feasibility assessment to build a tunnel under the 401. When asked for their initial reaction, responses tended to be more negative. Many thought the idea would be too expensive or unfeasible, some thought this was a bad use of taxpayers money or shouldn’t be the priority at the moment.
Others thought it would help traffic in the region.

When asked specifically whether the idea to build a tunnel under Highway 401, 35% think it’s a good idea while 47% think it’s a bad idea. Another 18% are unsure. It’s worth noting that those who think the idea is very bad is subtantially higher than those who think it’s a very good idea.

Those in Toronto and living in the GTHA are more likely to think the idea is a good one. Most PC supporters agree as well although 25% think it’s a bad idea.

There is less overt opposition to the province purchasing the 407 ETR highway that runs north of Toronto. 39% think it’s a good idea, 22% think it’s an acceptable idea while 18% think its a bad idea including only 8% who think it’s a very bad idea. Those in the GTHA particularly like the idea.



The Upshot
The PC Party continues to maintain a large lead over the opposition parties in Ontario. The 20-point lead we measured this month is the largest we’ve seen since we started tracking after the 2022 provincial election. The Premier’s personal numbers are comparable to the opposition party leaders and the government’s approval rating, while not stellar, is not bad either.
Homeless encampments are seen as a problem by almost all Ontarians and most don’t think the provincial government is doing enough to help municipalities to deal with them. There’s broad support for action and an approach that helps solve the issue and finds permanent help and housing for those who are unhoused and in the encampments at the moment.
Traffic is also a top issue, especially for those living around Toronto. While support for building a tunnel under the 401 is tepid right now, there is broad support for purchasing the 407 to eleviate congestion on the 401. Given the rise in support the Premier and PC Party has seen in the GTHA, it’s clear Doug Ford’s attention to this issue is appreciated by residents in the region.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 997 eligible voters in Ontario from October 3 to 10, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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