Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ontario PC lead down to 16 as Ford Government approval drops
November 9, 2024
From October 31 to November 5, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 998 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about the provincial government’s new policy towards bike lanes and how people are reacting to the $200 rebate cheques set to hit mailboxes in the new year.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 16 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.
All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous survey.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 22 points in the GTHA, ahead by 13 in eastern Ontario, and by 20 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 7, although the PC Party’s lead in the city is down 7 points.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (23-point lead), lead by 8 among women, and lead among Ontarians aged 30 and over. Among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and PCs are tied.
The government’s approval rating is also down slightly. Today 33% approve of the job performance of the provincial government (down 3) while 43% disapprove (+1).
Doug Ford’s personal numbers have deterioriated slightly over the past month.
34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (unchanged), while negative views are up slightly to 45% (up 3) for a net score of -9. Ford’s net favourability score is the lowest it’s been since we started tracking leader favourability in April.
Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -9 (unchanged) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has a slightly net positive impression at +1.
Bike Lanes and Provincial Intervention
In this survey, we also asked some questions about bike lanes and the provincial government’s new policy on oversight of municipal decision making and the removal bike lanes in municipalities it deems to impact the flow of vehicle traffic on major roads.
For context, when we ask people what their main mode of travel is in their community, 68% of Ontarians say they get around by car or truck, 18% by public transit, 9% walk, 4% by taxi or Uber, and 2% by bike.
Those in Toronto are much more likely to rely on public transit than those in other parts of the province, including in the GTHA.
There is also a strong correlation between mode of travel and vote intention. Among those who get around their community primarily by car or truck, 48% would vote PC today compared with 22% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Among those who get around primarily by public transit, 38% would vote Liberal, 27% PC, and 20% NDP.
When it comes to riding a bike, about 1 in 3 Ontarians say they regularly or occasionally ride a bike and share the road with cars. In Toronto, that number rises to 42%. Almost half of Ontarians say they never ride a bike and share the road with cars.
When it comes to the provincial government’s new policy towards bike lanes – which we describe as a “new proposed law that would require municipalities to get provincial approval to install new bike lanes in any Ontario municipality and would prohibit new separated lanes if infrastructure interferes with existing vehicle traffic”, 37% say they are very or somewhat familiar with the policy. 1 in 4 Ontarians have never heard about it. In total 76% are aware of the proposal.
When we ask whether they think it is a good idea or a bad idea, 25% think it’s a good idea, 30% think it’s an acceptable idea, 28% think its a bad idea while 17% are unsure.
We don’t find much regional variation on reaction. Most current PC supporters think the idea is good or acceptable. Only 12% of PC supporters think it’s a bad idea.
About 1 in 4 Ontarians think that preventing new bike lanes or removing bike lanes from major roads will ease traffic congestion a lot. Another 41% think it will help a little. Those in Toronto are 5-points more likely to think it will ease traffic a lot than Ontarians on average.
Despite the fact that the provincial govenment’s proposal more support than resistance, public opinion is more divided when it comes to bike lanes more generally. 41% think they are essential for safety and provide necessary alternatives to car travel while 38% think they contribute to traffic congestion and should be more strategically place. 20% don’t have a view either way.
It’s clear bike lanes are an effectively political wedge, especially since the PCs are pretty much alone on the side of removing them while the opposition parties are all together on the side of bike lanes being good.
What about those $200 rebate cheques?
7 in 10 Ontarians think the proposal to send a $200 cheque to every adult and child in Ontario is either a good idea (46%) or an acceptable idea (26%) with 21% thinking it’s a bad idea.
Support for the rebate cheques is highest in Toronto and among younger Ontarians. Only 10% of PC supporters think it’s a bad idea.
When ask people whether it is better to use the $3 billion the rebate cheques are estimated to cost on the rebate cheques or to improve public services like healthcare or education, there’s a clear split in opinion. 48% think the money should be used to improve public services while 43% think it should be used for the rebate cheques.
There are some interesting splits by age. Those aged 18 to 29 and those aged 45 to 59 are more likely to prefer the rebate cheques while seniors and millennials prefer the money to be used on improving public services. Interestingly, 1 in 3 of those who currently support the PC Party think the money should be used to improve public services rather than for the rebate cheques.
The Upshot
The PC Party continues to lead by a wide margin across the province. Although Premier Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating are down, the party remains well positioned to be re-elected in large part because of the split across the opposition parties.
The provincial government’s efforts to alleviate traffic and address the cost of living are generally well received, especially among the party’s support base. While people aren’t enthusasiatic about the bike lane policy and not everyone thinks sending $200 cheques to all Ontarians is a good use of the money, the PCs continue to address the concerns of its core audience and as a result has kept them loyal and supportive of the Premier and the PC Party.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 998 eligible voters in Ontario from October 31 to November 5, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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