Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ontario PCs lead by 18 as Ford government approval rating rebounds
December 9, 2024
From November 28 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and often include questions on new topics. You can read the article on this poll here:
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 18 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 25%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 21%, and the Greens at 6%.
All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous surveys. Since May, the Ontario PCs have consistently led by between 16 and 20 points.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 20 points in the GTHA, ahead by 16 in eastern Ontario, and by 24 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 15, a rebound from our poll a month ago.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (25-point lead), lead by 11 among women, and lead across all age groups. Among those 60 and over, the PCs lead by 22-points.
Since early November, we have seen an improvement in the Ford government’s approval rating. Today 37% approve compared with 42% who disapprove. Over the past month, positive evaluations are up by 4-points, back to the high watermark since we started tracking this in August 2023.
In contrast, the federal government’s current approval rating nationally is 24% and 26% in Ontario.
Doug Ford’s personal numbers have improved slightly over the past month.
37% have a positive view of Premier Ford (+3), while negative views are down slightly (43%) for a net score of -6. Ford’s net favourability score is the lowest it’s been since we started tracking leader favourability in April.
NDP leader Marit Stiles has a slightly net positive impression at +3 , the only provincial lead with a net favourable score. Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -7 (marginal improvement).
Is Justin Trudeau dragging down the Liberals in Ontario?
As we saw in Nova Scotia during the recent provincial election, views of Justin Trudeau are strongly related to provincial voting intention.
Across the province, 22% of Ontarians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister compared with 62% who have a negative impression. When we look at the relationship between impressions of the Prime Minister and provincial vote intention, we find a strong linear relationship.
67% of those who a very positive impression of Justin Trudeau say they would vote Ontario Liberal. That drops to 57% among those with a less intense “positive” impression. From there, only 26% of those with a neutral impression of Trudeau would vote Ontario Liberal. Among those with a negative impression of Trudeau, 18% would vote Ontario Liberal while only 5% of those with a very negative impression of the Prime Minister would vote Liberal.
It’s also worth noting that there is a subset of the PC Party voter coalition who is fond of Justin Trudeau. 1 in 10 current PC voters say they have a positive impression of Prime Minister Trudeau. A total of 7% of Ontarians have a positive impression of both Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau. Among these Trudeau/Ford voters, 67% are voting Liberal federally (22% Conservative) while 51% are voting for Ford (35% for Crombie’s Ontario Liberals).
The opposite relationship, as expected, exists for provincial voting behaviour and how people feel about Premier Ford. More than 80% of the 37% of Ontarians with a positive impression of Doug Ford say they would vote PC. That drops to 41% among those with a neutral view of the Premier. Among those with a negative impression of Doug Ford, very few would vote PC.
This data reinforces two things. First, how much influence views towards the Prime Minister are currently having on provincial vote intentions. Second, how much of an asset Doug Ford remains to the PC Party’s electoral fortunes. The PC Party’s fortunes will rise and fall depending on whether people like Premier Ford or not.
The Upshot
As the year comes to an end, Doug Ford and the PCs remain in a strong position. If they do seek another mandate early in 2025, they would be the favourites as their opposition is divided and Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating are relatively strong.
A big wildcard is Marit Stiles and the NDP. She is not well known but has the most favourable net impression. If a campaign comes, she will be a blank slate to many voters and could change the dynamics in the province.
For the Liberals and Bonnie Crombie, the biggest hurdle to growth remains the unpopularity of Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals. As long as Justin Trudeau is far less popular than Doug Ford, it will be hard for them to make the case for change.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from November 28 to December 4, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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