As Election Kicks Off, Ontario PCs lead by 23: Why Doug Ford is well positioned to be re-elected.
January 29, 2025
As the Ontario provincial election is about to get started, we conducted a survey of 1,021 eligible voters in the province from January 22 to 26, 2025.
The results indicate that the Ontario PC Party is in a solid position to be re-elected for the third time as Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating have improved since December.
In this report, we explore the reasons for this conclusion by looking at several key indicators we will track throughout the election.
PCs LEAD BY 9 OVER THE LIBERALS. NDP AT 22%
If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 47% of the vote with the Ontario Liberals at 24% and the Ontario NDP at 19%. The Ontario Greens are at 7% while other parties get 3% of the vote.
Since December, the PC vote share is up 4, the Liberals are down 1 and the NDP is down 2.
The PCs are ahead in every region of the province.
WHAT EXPLAINS THE PC’S DOMINANT POSITION?
#1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs.
Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government while 22% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome. Views are almost the same as they were at the start of the 2022 provincial election and similar to what we saw in Nova Scotia in November last year, a few weeks before Tim Houston and the NS PCs were easily re-elected.
Perhaps most important, “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split exactly evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention with 35% of change voters saying they would vote NDP and 35% supporting the Liberals. 11% support the Greens.
One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:
(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or
(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.
#2 – The Top Issues Favour the PCs, but Healthcare could be a vulnerability
Reducing the cost of living remains a top issue for more than half of Ontarians (60%). Healthcare, housing affordability, dealing with Trump’s tariffs, and growing the economy round out the top 5. 1 in 4 say reducing homelessness and poverty is one of their top three issues.
We see some variation across the political spectrum. PC Party supporters are more likely to rank affordability, the economy, and crime as a top issue. Liberal Party supporters are more likely to rate healthcare, long-term care, and education as a top issue while NDP supporters lean into housing affordability and homelessness and poverty reduction. But in all three cases, affordability, healthcare, and housing are the top issues for Ontarians.
#3 – Doug Ford’s personal image is stronger than the other party leaders and is in a better place than it has been for much of his time as Premier.
Beyond the desire for change and issue ownership, Doug Ford’s personal image remains relatively strong.
More people have a positive view of the PC leader than any of his opponents and Mr. Ford’s negatives are lower than they have been for the last two years. In fact, over the past 7 weeks, Mr. Ford’s personal image has moved above water with more viewing him favourably than unfavourably.
One of the wildcards for the election is how unknown the opposition party leaders are.
44% of Ontarians have a neutral impression or don’t know NDP Leader Marit Stiles. 39% have similar perspectives on Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie. Crombie starts the campaign with the lowest net favourable score of all four major party leaders.
Beyond their images, when asked which leader would make the best Premier, Doug Ford easily wins, leading Ms Crombie by 25 points with Marit Stile a few points behind in third. .
Is calling an early election a liability for Ford and the PCs?
We reasked some questions we had asked back in June 2024 when there was some discussion of an early election. And the new results suggest that while there is some risk around an early election call – especially when the price tag is framed for people – it’s unlikely to cause the PCs too much trouble.
One reason is the speed at which the news cycle moves and the possibility of tariffs being imposed on February 1 means a discussion about an early election may not last past the first few days of the campaign.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “As the election officially gets underway, Doug Ford and the PCs are once again in the driver’s seat. Their double-digit lead over the Liberals, combined with Ford’s improved personal image, puts them on solid footing to win a third term. Comparative data from past surveys suggests the desire for change isn’t deep or widespread enough to pose a serious threat—at least not yet.
For the PCs, the path to victory is clear: keep the spotlight on affordability (the top issue for most Ontarians) and the looming risk of Trump’s tariffs. If they can maintain control of the economic narrative and continue to project steady leadership, the arguments for change may not gain enough traction to derail them.
Meanwhile, the opposition parties have two interlinked goals: first, they must consolidate the sizeable number of voters who definitely want a change in government while convincing more of the importance and urgency for change. Right now, those voters are split evenly between the Liberals and the NDP. To do so, they need to shift attention to the policy areas where the PCs are more vulnerable—like healthcare, education, and ethics. However, it’s worth noting that public focus on the election’s timing and cost may fade quickly, especially if Trump’s tariffs dominate the early campaign narrative.
To break through, the Liberals and the NDP need to inspire a sharper, more intense desire for change. That could happen if either Marit Stiles or Bonnie Crombie captures the public’s attention and presents a compelling contrast to Ford. With both opposition leaders still unknown or neutral to many voters, standout debate performances or a unifying message on key issues (such as healthcare or cost of living) could be the catalyst they need.
The election opens with the PCs in command, thanks to a combination of stronger personal numbers for Doug Ford, a low-intensity appetite for change, and solid ownership of the top issues. Still, with several weeks of campaigning ahead, the opposition’s best chance lies in rallying anti-Ford forces under a single banner and hammering home their best arguments on healthcare, education, and ethics—if they can grab Ontarians’ attention before it’s too late.”
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,021 eligible voters in Ontario from January 22 to 26, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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