Ontario Election 2025: Pre-Debate, PC lead drops as Ford’s negatives rise. Ontario Liberals clearly in second.
February 17, 2025
From February 13 to 15, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our third urvey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.
Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites but what was once a very large lead over the Liberals and NDP has tightened to just 13-points among committed Ontarians.
The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 33% support among all eligible voters—a dip of 4 points in the last two weeks, a down 6 since just before the campaign started. The Ontario Liberals are now in a clear second with 23% (up 4), while the New Democrats (NDP) are holding steady at 17%. The Greens remain at 5%, and 19% of voters remain undecided.
Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 41%, a 5-point decline, while the Liberals (28%) are in a clear second, 7 points ahead of the NDP.
When looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs hold a larger advantage at 43% compared with 28% for the OLP and 21% for the NDP.
Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in most regions although the gap between them and the Liberals may be dropping in the GTHA. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 40% (down 12) and now only 5-points ahead of the Liberals who are at 35%. The PCs lead by 13 in Toronto, 24 in southwest Ontario and 20 in eastern Ontario.
Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (45%) but face a more competitive race among women (37% PC, 29% Liberal, 25% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and ahead of the PCs (36%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support with the PCs among Millennials (30 to 44).
What is driving the shift in vote intentions?
Several other key measures are shifting.
First, Doug Ford’s personal impressions are continuing to deteriorate. Today, 33% have a positive impression of the Ford, down four since our previous poll. His negatives are up four for a net score of -10. In contrast, we see both Bonnie Crombie’s and Marit Stiles’ numbers improve. Stiles’ net favourable is +4 while Crombie’s is -4 – both improvements from the last survey.
Any of the goodwill Doug Ford built up after the tariff threat from Trump has all but been erased and his personal image is back to where it was at the end of 2024.
Along with a shift in impressions of the party leaders, we also see Ford’s lead on preferred Premier close as well. Since the end of January, those who prefer Doug Ford as Premier is down 9 points from 52% to 43%. In contrast, those who premier Crombie as Premier is up 7 from 22% to 29%. Stiles is largely unchanged from the beginning of the campaign.
At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating continuing to drop with 34% approving and 43% disapproving. A return to the pre-tariff treat numbers we say in November 2024.
The Issues
The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have changed slightly. Dealing with Trump’s tariff threats is up 5-points to 36% now effectively tied with housing and healthcare. The cost of living is the top issue still but we have seen crime and climate change move up.
When it comes to potential ballot question cost of living and Trump are still the top two, but we have seen healthcare increase by 4 points. Cost of living and Trump are unchanged with 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 selecting it as the issue they are most likely to be voting about. Ford and the PCs lead by 8 among those who say the ballot question is affordability and lead by almost 50 among those who say it’s about dealing with Trump. Among those who rank healthcare as the top vote driver, the Liberals are ahead of the NDP by 10 with the PCs in third.
More broadly, Ford’s PCs continue to be seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (33%) although down by 5 and managing the cost of living (29%) down 4. The Liberals are slightly ahead on healthcare (a seven point increase since our last survey).
Desire for Change Continues to Edge Up
As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising. And that continues to happen in this one.
The latest survey finds that 55% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a seven-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble. Once it reaches 60% the incumbents are a danger zone.
Additionally, only 17% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 17% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “With the main televised leaders’ debate set to take place tonight, the PCs and Doug Ford remain the favourites in this election. Their 13-point lead is still sizeable and comfortable enough and with little over a week left time may be running out for the opposition parties to close the gap. More comforting for the PCs is the wider leader they hold among those most likely to vote.
However, we do see a tightening and a shift in views towards both Ford and his opponents. The desire for change is growing, healthcare is rising as a ballot issue, and the PC dominance over the cost of living issue isn’t as large as it has been.
The key question for the Crombie and Liberals, who are now solidly in second place when it comes to popular support, is whether they can convince NDP and Green Party supporters to coalese around them to stop Ford’s re-election.
But that proves to be a challenge – at least based on our survey. When we look at the second choice preferences of NDP and Green Party supporters, there doesn’t appear to be enough at this moment to push Crombie over the line. Only 42% of NDP supporters, and 21% of Green Party supporters say the Liberals are their second choice. Even if all those people switched their support, the Liberals would still be 2-points behind the Liberals. To get ahead of the PCs, the Liberals need to not only consolidate every last Green and NDP supporter who puts the Liberals as their second choice but also convince some PC supporters to switch as well.
That’s a tough task, but not impossible. We’ll continue to track opinions and see whether tonight’s debate has any impact our media partner at the Toronto Star.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from February 13 to 15, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
