Ontario Election 2025: A Stable Race with Some Dynamic Undercurrents
February 9, 2025
From February 4 to 6, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our second survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.
Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites to be re-elected but has been some notable shifts in other measures.
The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 37% support among all eligible voters—a slight dip of two points since late January. The Ontario Liberals hold at 19%, while the New Democrats (NDP) see a modest two-point gain, rising to 17%. The Greens remain at 4%, and 20% of voters remain undecided.
Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 46%, a one-point decline, while the Liberals (24%) and NDP (21%, +2) remain relatively steady. Notably, when looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs gain further ground, rising to 49%, with the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (23% vs. 22%). This suggests that the PCs continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.
Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in key battlegrounds. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 52%, a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%) and the NDP (17%). They also hold the advantage in southwestern Ontario (42%) and eastern Ontario (44%). Toronto proper remains more competitive, with the Liberals 10-points behind the PCs (40% to 30%) and the NDP at 21%.
Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (50%) but face a more competitive race among women (42% PC, 24% Liberal, 24% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and statistically tied with the PCs (31%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support across all age groups but fail to break through in any one segment.
Party Leader Impressions & Best Premier
Premier Doug Ford’s net impression rating has declined slightly, with 37% of Ontarians holding a positive view of him (down four points), while 39% view him negatively (up two points). His net approval now sits at -2. Despite this, he remains the most recognized leader in the province, while his rivals continue to struggle with visibility.
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie’s negatives have ticked up (now at 35%, up one point), though more Ontarians are now aware of her, with fewer respondents saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion. NDP leader Marit Stiles sees a slight improvement, with her net impression rising to +1 as more voters become familiar with her. Green leader Mike Schreiner’s net impression has declined slightly (-3), though he remains the most neutral leader in the eyes of the public.
Doug Ford remains well ahead of the other party leaders who preferred Premier, although the gap has closed slightly over the last two weeks.
At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating dropping over the past two weeks.
The Issues
The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have not changed at all since our first survey. Affordability, housing, and healthcare dominate with Trump’s tarrifs and the economy rounding out the top 5.
When it comes to the issues that matter most, the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold the advantage. They lead on every major policy issue, but their most significant strengths are on economic management and dealing with the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs (35-point lead over the Liberals).
Ford’s PCs are seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (38%) and managing the cost of living (33%). In contrast, only 18% believe the Liberals would be better at handling affordability, while 19% prefer the NDP. Even on healthcare and education—issues traditionally seen as opposition strengths—the PCs hold narrow leads, though these files remain more competitive.
Hot Mic: Will Ford’s addmission of supporting Trump hurt?
Doug Ford’s hot mic moment expressing support for Donald Trump appears to have little immediate impact on his core supporters—40% of PC voters say it makes them more likely to support him, while 51% say it has no impact. Only 9% of PC supporters (and 3% of the electorate) say they are less likely to vote PC.
For NDP and Liberal supporters, the reaction is predictably negative, with about 60% saying it makes them less likely to vote for Ford.
The key question is whether this becomes a lasting liability, particularly with the Ontario Liberals preparing to run attack ads highlighting the comments. Telling voters that Ford praised Trump is one thing—showing them footage of him saying it is another entirely. Our next survey will reveal whether this moment fades or sticks, potentially shifting undecided voters and soft PC supporters.
Desire for Change Edging Up
As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising.
The latest survey finds that 52% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a four-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble.
Additionally, only 21% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 16% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.
Standing up to a Bully or Hosting a Party?
A series of lighter questions in the survey offer insight into how Ontarians perceive their leaders beyond traditional policy metrics. Ford is seen as the best leader to host a party (35%), sit beside on a long flight (29%), and—perhaps most importantly—stand up to a bully (50%). These attributes reflect a perception of Ford as a strong, relatable, and resilient figure, qualities that have helped solidify his political brand.
In contrast there is far more uncertainty around who would best put out a kitchen fire or give advice on investing money suggesting that many Ontarians don’t think Ford would be good at those but don’t know enough about the opposition leaders say if they would be better. This question underscores the familiarity advantage that Doug Ford has over the other party leaders.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “As Ontario inches closer to an election, the question remains: what will define the campaign? For now, the immediate economic threat posed by Trump’s tariffs appears to have eased, opening the door for other issues to take center stage. If the election remains focused on affordability and economic management, Ford and the PCs will be well-positioned to win. However, if healthcare, education, or broader questions of government competence become dominant themes, the race could tighten.
In the period they have left, either Bonnie Crombie or Marit Stiles have to do a few things to have a shot at winning this election. They have to increase the desire for change and consolidate those change voters around their party. Right now, neither of those two things are happening.
There may not be enough time or the right set of issues to achieve this.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 4 to 6, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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