Abacus Data Poll: What’s Happening in Nova Scotia?
March 24, 2025
At Abacus Data, we eat, sleep and breathe politics, and we’ve been keeping a close eye on what’s happening across the country as the 2025 federal election gets underway.
Today, we’re focusing on Nova Scotia – a province that’s known for its great hospitality, forestry, farming, and vibrant ocean economy.
We love Atlantic Canada! As you may have heard, we recently opened a new office in Halifax and are offering new and existing clients in the Atlantic region the same depth, quality and national experience that has made our company what it is today.
As part of our continued growth and investment in Atlantic Canada, we have established a new Nova Scotia omnibus survey, which we intend to run regularly, interviewing 600 adult Nova Scotians each wave. Below, you will find some of the highlights from our first Nova Scotia omnibus survey, plus some detailed analysis comparing how Nova Scotians feel about their province, the country, and the political choices ahead, with our latest national results.
We also encourage you to check out the new national poll we released yesterday to kick-off our 2025 federal election coverage, and keep watching this newsletter, our website and social media for frequent polling results and deep insights throughout the federal campaign.
Now to Nova Scotia!
Nova Scotians Want Change, But Not Always, in Every Way
As the 2025 federal election starts, Bluenosers – like all Canadians – are seeking change. According to our new Nova Scotia polling, just 31% of Nova Scotians think things in Canada are headed in the right direction, and an even smaller share (10%) think things in the World are headed in the right direction. These levels are about the same as we’re picking up in our national polls.
However, when Nova Scotians are asked to reflect upon the current state of affairs in their home province, they are slightly more optimistic, with 36% of Nova Scotians thinking things in the province are headed in the right direction and the same proportion (36%) thinking things are off-track, resulting a net neutral.
This difference is an important reminder that political feelings are often more complicated than they appear. One can be very frustrated with the state of the World, and Canada, but be perfectly okay with what’s happening in their province, region or neighbourhood. That’s something the federal leaders and their candidates should keep in mind as they meet voters on their home turf.
The fact that as many Nova Scotians ‘like’ as ‘dislike’ the direction of the province at this point in time is also pretty good news for Premier Houston and his government, as they continue to govern amidst the chaos of the second Trump presidency.
Two-thirds of Nova Scotians Certain to Vote
When asked about their federal voting plans, 67% of Nova Scotians say they will “definitely” cast a ballot in the next/current federal election. This level of engagement is slightly higher it is in our national polling.
However, in Nova Scotia, voting-certainty varies significantly by party choice. Right now, those who say they would vote Conservative or Liberal “if a federal election was held today” are slightly more committed to “definitely” voting than NDP supporters. 73% of committed Conservatives and 70% of committed Liberals say they are “definitely” going to vote, compared to 58% of committed NDP supporters.
This big gap suggests that the Liberals and Conservatives can more confidently rely on their Nova Scotia voter bases showing up on election day, whereas the NDP will need to spend more time and effort mobilizing their supporters in Nova Scotia, especially younger voters who have traditionally been more inclined to lean NDP but sometimes struggle with consistent turnout.
A Larger Liberal Pool in Nova Scotia
One of the most telling indicators of electoral-potential is a party’s “accessible voter pool” – in other words, how many people say they would consider voting for each political party.
In Nova Scotia, the Liberal Party of Canada has a substantially larger accessible voter pool than the other parties.
Right now, 61% of Nova Scotians say they are open to voting Liberal, compared with 46% for the NDP and 43% for the Conservatives.
Why does this matter? Because in a first-past-the-post system, even small increments of growth in a party’s accessible base can translate into big seat gains, especially in a province where close races can be decided by relatively few votes.
The Liberals enter this campaign with a broader potential foundation in Nova Scotia to build upon than the other parties.
And who’s in the current Liberal pool in Nova Scotia?
The current Liberal pool is a mix of 2021 Liberal, NDP and Conservative voters.
89% of Nova Scotians that would consider voting Liberal now say they voted Liberal in the last federal election, 69% of those that would consider voting Liberal now say they voted NDP in the last federal election, and 28% of those that say they would consider voting Liberal now say they voted Conservative in the last federal election.
Federal Voting Intentions: Carney’s Liberals are Starting the 2025 Campaign with a 10-Point Lead in Nova Scotia
Our new Nova Scotia polling also suggests that the Liberals are starting the 2025 campaign with a 10-point lead in the province.
Right now, the Liberals are at 44% in Nova Scotia. The Conservative are at 34%. The NDP is at 14%. The Greens are at 4%. And the People’s Party is at 3%.
Starting an election – with a ten-point lead is an advantage, but it’s not the only number to consider, especially at a moment in time like this one.
As our regular readers know, the public opinion landscape in Canada has been shifting. In just over two months, the Liberals went from 20% to 36% in vote intention nationally.
Also, it’s the Conservatives, not the Liberals, who have gained the most vote-share since the last election, when we compare the current vote shares to the way Nova Scotians actually voted in 2021.
According to our latest Nova Scotia numbers, Carney’s Liberals (44%) are starting the 2025 campaign with a vote share in Nova Scotia that’s two points higher than the vote share Justin Trudeau’s Liberals earned in Nova Scotia in the 2021 federal election (42%). Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are starting the 2025 campaign with a vote share in Nova Scotia (34%) that is five points higher than what Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives earned in Nova Scotia in the 2021 election (29%). And the NDP is starting the 2025 campaign with a vote share in Nova Scotia (14%) that is eight points lower than its actual vote share in 2021 (22%).
Among the group of Nova Scotians that are most likely to vote in this election (i.e., those who say they will definitely cast a ballot in this federal election), the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives narrows a bit, with the Liberals’ jumping up two points to 46%, and the Conservatives climbing four points to 37%, and the NDP’s share drops again, down to just 12%.
Leader Popularity: Carney, Poilievre, and Singh
When trying to explain why Carney’s Liberals currently lead in Nova Scotia, one big factor stands out: It’s Mark Carney’s personal popularity in the province.
Right now, forty-one percent of Nova Scotians have a positive view of the new Liberal leader, while 27% have a negative view, giving him a net favourable rating of +14.
By contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s net rating in Nova Scotia is -20, and Jagmeet Singh’s net rating in Nova Scotia is -6.
These results confirm that Mark Carney is much better-known and better-liked in this part of the country than he was just a few months ago.
For further context, we also asked survey respondents in Nova Scotia about Donald Trump, and only 11% of Nova Scotians have a positive view of U.S. president. While Trump’s not, of course, on the ballot in Canada, his threats will cast a long shadow over this election, especially if voters see or perceive any similarities between Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Trump-style politics.
When respondents are asked who they would prefer to see as Prime Minister, Carney leads Poilievre by 12-points in Nova Scotia, with 17% saying they are unsure – another advantage for the Liberals.
Gender Splits and Retention Rates in Nova Scotia
What role, if any, is gender playing?
Currently, Carney’s Liberals lead Poilievre’s Conservatives in Nova Scotia by a whopping 28 points among women, while the Conservatives hold a 7-point lead among men. This is a bit different that what we’re seeing in our national polling. A gender gap exists but it’s not this wide.
And when we compare how current political preferences match up with 2021 voting behaviour in Nova Scotia, we see the Liberals holding onto 75% of their previous voters, with 10% shifting to the Conservatives and 7% still undecided. The Conservatives retain 86% of their 2021 vote, with 6% going Liberal and 3% undecided.
The NDP, however, has lost more than a third of its previous support to the Liberals, hanging onto only about half of its last-election voters. This erosion highlights how steep a challenge the NDP faces in Nova Scotia (and likely other parts of the country), especially if it remains difficult for them to re-energize the voters who switched their support to the Liberals.
What Issues Are Driving the Conversation in Nova Scotia?
The issues that Nova Scotians care the most about are the same ones dominating our national polling. It’s the rising cost of living, followed closely by dealing with Donald Trump and his administration, healthcare, housing and the economy – in that order.
Right now, 54% of Nova Scotians identify the rising cost of living as one of two most important issues facing Canada and Canadians, and 45% of Nova Scotians identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of the two most important issues facing Canada and Canadians.
This provincial issues-set matches the national issues-set we have been picking up in our recent national polling, with Donald Trump and his administration moving quickly for the middle to the top of the list in recent months.
In terms of which federal party is best able to deal with these issues, the Liberals enjoy a 17-point advantage over the Conservatives in Nova Scotia when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, a 7-point lead in Nova Scotia on healthcare, and a 7-point lead in Nova Scotia on the economy; and the Conservatives hold a slight edge on the rising cost of living and housing.
Interestingly, while the Liberals lead on healthcare and the economy in our Nova Scotia polling, the Conservatives currently lead on healthcare and the economy in our national polling.
Who is Expected to Win?
We also asked Nova Scotians who they think will win the 2025 federal election. 39% predict a Liberal victory, while 33% think the Conservatives will win, and 25% remain unsure.
The Upshot
As the 2025 federal election officially begins, Nova Scotia looks more like a Liberal stronghold than a battleground.
The Cost of Living vs. Donald Trump
Much like elsewhere in Canada, the cost of living is the dominant worry in Nova Scotia this spring, and affordability issues are likely to remain at the centre of the 2025 campaign.
At the same time, Trump’s high profile in the province’s political consciousness cannot be overlooked, especially in a context where only 11% have a positive view of him.
Should the conversation during the election focus more on Trump than affordability, this will further advantage the Liberals. At least that’s what our current Nova Scotia and national polling suggests.
Carney’s Popularity and Poilievre’s Challenge
As the 2025 campaign kicks-off, Mark Carney’s positive image is providing a strong anchor for the Liberal brand in Nova Scotia, and Pierre Poilievre’s net negative rating indicates that he has work to do convince voters that he is the right leader for this moment. While Poilievre still commands loyalty from most of his 2021 voters, expanding beyond his base might be critical if the Conservatives want to make gains in Nova Scotia and beyond.
The NDP’s Steep Decline
The collapse in NDP support is one of the biggest developments in Nova Scotia and beyond. At the moment, it appears the Liberals are the only beneficiaries of this drop, making it even more challenging for the Conservatives to overtake the Liberals in key ridings. The fate of the NDP could change if the party pivots its strategy or if Jagmeet Singh manages to galvanize younger voters. Still, the data suggest an uphill battle ahead.
In only a few months, the federal political landscape in Nova Scotia has dramatically shifted, with the Liberals now back in the drivers-seat.
This could change, but for now, the 2025 campaign begins close to where the 2021 one ended.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 600 adult Nova Scotians over the age of 18 from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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