Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotia PCs extend lead as campaign hits halfway mark
November 13, 2024
But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.
And so, with less than two weeks to go until Election Day in Nova Scotia, we are excited to share the results from our second provincial election survey with you and start exploring how voter preferences and opinions are changing over time.
In case you missed our big announcement last week: Abacus Data is proud to be investing in Atlantic Canada. We have opened an office in Halifax and Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada Lead.
Together, we will serve clients in Atlantic Canada with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.
To learn more about our investment and expansion in Atlantic Canada, click here.
Now to the survey results.
The results indicate that the Nova Scotia PC Party and Premier Tim Houston have increased their lead over the opposition parties with the campaign having yet to fundamentally shift preferences or opinions about the political choices in Nova Scotia.
Here are the key takeaways from our second survey of the campaign:
The Issues
Fixing healthcare, affordability and housing remain the top three issues likely to impact the way Nova Scotians vote on election day, but the salience of those issues has dropped a bit since our first survey, with other issues like cutting taxes staying the same and population growth appearing to gathering steam.
Since our first NS election survey, healthcare as a top issue is down 5 points, affordability is down 3 points, and housing is down 3 points.
Cutting taxes finishes fourth again, with no change since the first survey.
And population growth is up 3 points, growing the economy is up 2 points, and fighting climate change is up 6 points.
When voters who identify healthcare, affordability, housing and/or reducing taxes as their top issues are asked which party they think will be best able to handle those issues, the PCs finish first on three of the four top issues. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 15-points on “fixing healthcare”, lead the NDP by 10-points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the Liberals by 12-points on “reducing taxes”.
Only on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs slightly trail the NDP (28% to 25%).
The PCs also lead among people who identify “growing the economy and creating good jobs,” “managing population growth”, and “improving roads” as their top issues.
And the PCs are in fourth place on the party Nova Scotians who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue (the Greens lead on that issue).
The Leaders
Our second election survey also confirms that Tim Houston is well-known to voters. 73% of eligible voters currently feel they have a very good or pretty good idea who the incumbent Premier is and what he stands for, remaining high overall and high in most segments.
Familiarity with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender has improved a little bit since the first week of the election, but remains much lower than it is for Tim Houston.
While the same proportion (48%) of voters have at least a pretty good idea of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the start of the campaign), there has been a 5-point decrease in those who say they don’t know much about him at all (26% to 21%).
For NDP Leader Claudia Chender, we see a similar change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as a person and a leader is the same as it was at the start of the campaign (36% vs. 37%), but the proportion of those who don’t know her at all is down 5-points (28% to 23%).
When we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the party leaders, Tim Houston continues to be viewed positively by 37% of eligible voters (only down 1 point since our first survey) and negatively by 29% (down 5) for a net score of +8, representing an improvement since the start of the campaign.
In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +6 (down since the start) and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +26 (an improvement).
This set of results also confirms that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -32 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -14 in the province.
HAVE OTHER INDICATORS SHIFTED SINCE THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN?
The desire for change has also lessened a bit.
In our first Nova Scotia election poll, 50% of eligible voters told us they definitely wanted to see a change in government in Nova Scotia. Today, that figure is 46% (down 4 points). And those who definitely want to see the Houston PC government re-elected is holding steady at 20%.
This is more good news for the PCs, with these trends as well as the slightly higher voter intentions, favouring them to win the election.
The desire for change in Nova Scotia right now is also about the same as it was in British Columbia where the incumbent NDP recently eked out a victory.
Even among those who definitely want to see a change in government, 16% of eligible voters in Nova Scotia still say they plan to vote PC, an increase of 7-points since the start of the campaign.
And the NDP and Liberals currently split the-solid-change-vote 30% to 27% for the NDP.
The Undecided
What is much less clear is which direction eligible voters who have not made their minds-up yet will go.
With less than two weeks remaining in the provincial election, 22% of all eligible voters in Nova Scotia remain undecided and a significant proportion of voters who are definitely wanting a change in government remain undecided, representing about 10% of the total electorate.
If these groups consolidate around one opposition party, the PC margin could shrink substantially, lifting that party to second place or maybe even better.
It is also important to note that in the last provincial election, 35% of current strong-change-voters voted Liberal, 14% voted PC, 6% NDP and 35% didn’t vote.
Every election is, however, different and the Liberals and NDP also had other leaders in 2021, with Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender leading their first provincial campaigns.
Tim Houston leads by 15 on “Best Premier”
When we ask Nova Scotians which of the party leaders they think would make the best Premier, Tim Houston continues to finish far ahead of the other party leaders. 35% pick the current Premier, 20% chose Liberal Leader Zach Churchill, while 18% select NDP Leader Claudia Chender. And 25% are unsure.
And Now, Vote Choice: PCs lead by 22
All of these metrics lead to a larger PC lead than we measured earlier in the campaign.
If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win a large majority than they won in 2021. 47% of committed Nova Scotians would vote PC (up 2 since our last survey), 25% would vote Liberal (unchanged), while 23% would vote NDP (down 3). 4% would vote Green. 22% say they are undecided down 3 from our first survey.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP remain statistically tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs lead by 33 in other parts of the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs. 18 points).
Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.
The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.
The Enthusiasm Gap has Closed
Earlier in the campaign, we noted that the PCs had an advantage over the other parties because their voters seem more enthusiastic to vote. That “enthusiasm” gap seems to have shrunk.
Among the 51% of the electorate who tell us that they are “extremely motivated” to vote, the PCs have a smaller lead than across the entire electorate – 45% to 29% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Today, 60% of Liberal supporters say they are extremely motivated to vote (up 11) compared with 49% of PC supporters (down 16) and 47% of NDP supporters. (down 5)
These motivated Liberal supporters tend to be more female (63%), 78% have a post-secondary education, and 76% of them voted for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2021. Could this be a Trump-effect in Nova Scotia? We don’t have enough evidence to validate this theory, but it’s something we will continue to watch.
Although enthusiasm among PC supporters may be down, they continue to be firmer in their support than other party supporters. 60% of PC supporters say they will not change their mind. They already know they are voting PC. 53% of Liberal voters and 36% of NDP voters responded the same way.
Second Choice Preferences
When we ask people with a vote preference which party is their second choice, we find that 1 in 3 PC supporters say they don’t have a second choice. Another 31% say the NDP is their second choice, and 23% point to the Liberals.
Among Liberal supporters, 56% say their second choice is the NDP while 30% say the PCs.
For NDP supporters, 45% say the Liberals, 32% say the Greens, while 17% say the PCs.
These results make consolidation of the not-PC vote unlikely given the fragmentation of the second-choice preferences among NDP and Liberal supporters.
Who do Nova Scotians think will win the election?
Half of Nova Scotians believe that the PCs will win the provincial election, a three point increase from our last survey. 16% think the Liberals will win and only 6% expect an NDP victory.
UPSHOT
According to Kelly Bennett: “Tim Houston and his PC party started the provincial election riding high in the polls and that advantage continues to grow. The PCs have increased their committed voter numbers by 2 points in the last week, inching closer to the 50% mark, while the other parties continue to battle it out for second place.
If the provincial election was held today, Tim Houston and the PCs would likely win a larger majority than they did in 2021.
In the final two weeks of the campaign, it will be interesting to see which direction undecided voters decide to move in. If they turnout, their choice could close the gap with the PCs and put one of the main opposition parties ahead of the other.
With the party leaders hitting the debate stage on November 14th (for a live, 90-minute debate hosted by CBC), Zach Churchill and Claudia Cheder will have one of the best chances they are going to get to introduce themselves to Nova Scotians later this week.
For them, the stakes seem really high. They need to perform well on the debate stage to win-over as many undecided voters as they can, whereas the incumbent Premier only needs to stay the course, stick to his messages, and not say or do anything that will turn his many supporters off.”
According to David Coletto: “As we pass the halfway mark of the campaign, the Nova Scotia PCs and Tim Houston remain in the driver’s seat. The desire for change is not threatening, the Premier is relatively well liked, and neither of the opposition parties have been able to consolidate the change vote, at least up until this point.
However, some of the other things we are seeing should concern the PC campaign. Enthusiasm among PC supporters has dropped a little bit, perhaps as complacency begins to set in. Most voters think the PCs are going to win the election.
10% of the electorate definitely wants a change in government, but is still undecided about how they will vote. If all or most of this group were to rally around one of the opposition parties, that would put a serious dent in the PC lead and at least determine second place.
If the PCs do win and expand their vote share from the last election, they would be one of the very few incumbent governments in the democratic world to survive what I call “inflationitis” and increase their vote share.
Everything considered, we should still expect a large Progressive Conservative majority government to be elected on November 26th. What is more unknown is which party will form the official opposition.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from November 7 to 10, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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