Abacus Data Poll: Are perceptions about population growth impacting political opinions? Polling from Nova Scotia.
November 7, 2024
Last week, we released the initial results from our first poll in Nova Scotia as voters weigh their choices during the provincial election. In this report, we take a closer look at the issue of population growth – as part of our ongoing coverage of the provincial election in Nova Scotia.
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When reading today’s report, it is also important to note that Nova Scotia’s population grown substantially in the past decade and thousands of new people continue to move to the province from other parts of Canada and around the world.
This big change in demographic fortunes has created other growing pains in Nova Scotia. With the provincial election now underway, the party leaders and their candidates have the difficult task of explaining how they will improve infrastructure and services and do a better job of managing population growth.
That’s the context for this research.
Now, to the results.
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For most Nova Scotians, population growth is not some abstract thing, that’s happening far away. It hits very close to home.
Our provincial election polling indicates that 77% of eligible voters think the community where they live is growing. 39% think their community is growing “a lot” and another 38% think it’s growing “a bit.”
Some national polling we did this summer also tells us that concern about population growth is higher in Nova Scotia than it is in any other Canadian province.
Both findings remind us how up-close-and-personal this issue already is for voters – as they start to consider their electoral choices and tune in and out of the various provincial campaigns.
Population Growth an Issue Impacting Vote
If the current public opinion environment holds, population growth will be something that voters are thinking about as they cast their ballots.
Right now, the issue of managing population growth is not as important to voters as fixing healthcare, affordability, housing and cutting taxes, but it finishes ahead of other issues. And it’s clear perceptions about population growth are directly related to perceptions about those other issues as a scarcity mindset continues to inform and determine people’s thinking.
Some voters are also more inclined than others to really care about the issue.
When it comes to issue prioritization, the amount of growth someone sees in their home community makes a difference.
Voters who believe there is “a lot” of population growth in their community are far more likely to name it as one of the top issues influencing their vote than those who believe there is “a little” population growth in their community.
Voters who believe there is “a lot” of population growth in their community are also more likely to be dissatisfied with the general direction of the province and to be more critical of Tim Houston’s management of the issue in the past.
The linking of these three things – seeing a lot of growth in your community, with feeling dissatisfied with how things are going in Nova Scotia or with feeling dissatisfied with how the PCs have managed the issue in the past – should give all the provincial leaders and their candidates pause.
It shows that those who feel close to this issue really want change. They are looking for a new approach.
Population Growth and Voter Intentions
Although population growth is on many people’s minds and has come to inform and impact people’s perceptions about public policy choices in the province, it hasn’t yet had much impact on vote intentions.
For example, among those who think the population in Nova Scotia is growing “a lot”, 42% are voting PC, 29% are voting NDP, and 27% are voting Liberal. Among those who think the population is growing “a little bit” show similar vote intention patterns – 45% PC, 29%, Liberal, and 23% NDP. Among the rest of the electorate (and those who think the population is staying about the same or in decline), vote is 50% PC, 27% NDP, and 11% Liberal.
At this point perceptions about population growth don’t seem to be strongly related to vote, although the Liberals are doing better among people who think the population in Nova Scotia is growing faster.
Best Party to Deal with Population Growth
When we zoom out again and look at which party all voters think will be best at managing population growth in the future, things look better for Tim Houston and the PCs. They enjoy a comfortable lead.
Right now, 30% of eligible voters think Tim Houston and his party would be the most effective manager, compared to 19% for the Liberals and 17% for the NDP. Although, as with many other issues, about 1 in 3 Nova Scotians are unsure.
This is a good sign for the incumbent PCs, giving them a clear advantage on this issue to try to either hold or build upon, as the Liberals and the NDP continue to make the case that only they can be trusted do it differently.
Upshot
According to Kelly Bennett: Population growth is emerging as a ballot-box issue in Nova Scotia’s provincial election. At the end of the first week of campaigning, managing population growth is not as important an issue to eligible voters as fixing healthcare, affordability, improving housing, or cutting taxes, but it is definitely influencing the way some voters are thinking about their political choices, particularly those who see “a lot” of growth in their communities.
With the incumbent Premier and his party currently 19 points ahead in the election, and leading on this issue, it will be interesting to see if each party leader decides to talk more about population growth on the campaign trail — and if voters are turned-off or turned-on by what they hear.
And if Tim Houston, Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender do want to go for it and really dig-in on this issue: creating more linkages between population growth and their healthcare and housing agendas would be a good strategy.
And speaking directly to voters who already see “a lot” of growth in their communities would help the Liberals and the NDP, especially if they can show that the Houston government has not sufficiently dealt with the issue.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from October 28 to 31, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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