Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotia PCs lead by 19: Why Tim Houston is well positioned to be re-elected.
November 2, 2024
But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.
And so, as the Nova Scotia provincial election nears the end of its first week, we are excited to share results of our first deep dive into how Nova Scotians are feeling about their political choices and where we see things as the campaign begins.
Before we share some insights on the Nova Scotia election, we have some big news to share. Abacus Data is officially and formally expanding into Atlantic Canada and opening an office in Halifax.
Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada lead and will be serving clients with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.
To learn more about our expansion and investment in Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada, click here.
Now to the survey results.
The results indicate that the Nova Scotia PC Party and Premier Tim Houston are in a strong position as the campaign begins to be re-elected.
In this report, we explore the reasons for this conclusion by looking at several key indicators we will track throughout the election.
PCs LEAD BY 19 OVER NS NDP. NDP AND LIBERALS STATISTICALLY TIED FOR SECOND.
If the election was held today, the PCs would very likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 45% of the vote with the NS NDP at 26% and the NS Liberals at 25%. The Greens have 4% of the vote. 25% of eligible voters are currently undecided.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP are statiscally tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs are well ahead in other communities across the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs. 12 points).
Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.
The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.
The Issues
In terms of issues, healthcare, affordability, and housing are the top three issues that Nova Scotians say will most impact their vote. Reducing taxes is also high up on the list.
When we compare top issues by current party supporters, we see some differences. PC supporters are more likely to rate reducing taxes as a top issue as well as defending Nova Scotia’s interests in Ottawa. Liberal supporters are more likely to rate affordability and managing population growth while NDP supporters are more likely to rate housing and homelessness.
That being the top two issues regardless of party are fixing healthcare and making life more affordable.
The Leaders
When it comes to the leaders, most Nova Scotians have a pretty good idea who Tim Houston is. 74% say they have a very or pretty good idea who he is and what he stands for. In contrast, only 47% feel the same way about Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and 37% have a good sense of NDP LEader Claudia Chender. The campaign could matter if the opposition leaders can better introduce themselves to Nova Scotians. If they can, views may also change if as people get to know Churchill and Chender, they come to like them.
When we ask Nova Scotians their impressions of the party leaders, Premier Houston is view positively by 38% and negatively by 34% for a net score of +4. In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +11 and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +21. But many people in Nova Scotia either don’t know the opposition leaders well or have a neutral view of them.
For context, we also find that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are particularly well liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -33 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -16.
The Early Election Call
We also asked Nova Scotians how they feel about the early election call. The Premier called the election despite the fixed election date law his government passed set the next election to be in July 2025.
Overall, few Nova Scotians said they are unhappy or angry about the early call. 27% say they are unhappy (15%) or angry (12%) while a slightly larger proportion say they are thrilled or happy (29%). The rest, 45%, are indifferent.
WHAT ELSE EXPLAINS THE NOVA SCOTIA PC’S DOMINANT POSITION?
#1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs.
During the first week of the campaign, the desire for change isn’t sufficient to be a serious liability for the incumbent PCs. Today, 50% definitely want to see a change in government while 20% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome.
To help set the context for this, we compare the results in Nova Scotia with some previous elections we have comparable data for. When we look at the elections in which the incumbents were re-elected – BC 2024, Ontario 2022, Federal 2021, the desire for change is comparable.
For the elections where incumbents were defeated – Ontario 2018 or Federal 2015, the desire for change was much higher.
How these perceptions can change over the campaign, but if the desire for change holds, then Houston and the PCs are in a solid position for re-election.
Perhaps most important, “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split almost evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention.
One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:
(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or
(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.
#2 – The PCs lead or are ahead or competitive on all four of the top issues.
As mentioned earlier, fixing healthcare, affordability, housing, and taxes are the top four most salient issues at the moment.
When those who care about each issue are asked which party is best able to handle the issue, the PCs are ahead or competitive for all four.
The PCs lead by 14 on fixing healthcare (a top issue for 7 in 10 Nova Scotians), they lead by 10 on affordability, and by 16 on reducing taxes. The NDP and PCs are statistically tied on improving housing and reducing homelessness.
It is worth noting that a sizeable portion of Nova Scotians are unsure which party is best able to manage these issues and the campaign could influence this perceptions. We will track this over the campaign.
Specifically around micro-economic percpetions, the environment isn’t threatening to the incumbent as it might be in other jurisdictions. For example, although 61% of Nova Scotians say they are falling behind due to the cost of living, only 41% of Nova Scotias believe that Tim Houston’s PC government has made the cost of living in Nova Scotia higher than it would otherwise be. 59% think it hasn’t – and that’s a win when affordability is one of the top issues on voters minds.
#3 – Tim Houston’s personal image is relatively positive (to a lot of other incumbents) and he leads on “Best Premier” by a wide margin.
Beyond the desire for change and issue ownership, Tim Houston’s personal image remains relatively strong.
More people have a positive view of the PC leader than any of his opponents and Mr. Houston’s are relatively low.
Beyond their images, when asked which leader would make the best Premier, Tim Houston is 15-points ahead of both Claudia Chender and Zach Churchill.
#4 – The PC vote is firmer and more motivated than that of the Liberals or NDP.
Another advantage held by the PCs and Tim Houstin at the moment is that PC voters are more motivated to vote. Among the 50% of the electorate who tell us that they are “extremely motivated” to vote, the PCs have almost a 30-point advantage – 52% to 24% for the NDP and 21% for the Liberals. This initial turnout advantage boosts the PC vote share by 7 points.
Looking at it another way, 65% of PC voters say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 52% for NDP supporters, and 49% for NDP supporters.
Not only is the PC vote more motivated as the campaign starts, but PC voters appear to be firmer. 68% of PC supporters say they will not change their mind. They already know they are voting PC. 44% of Liberal voters and 26% of NDP voters responded the same way.
There is, however, some risk in these numbers for the PCs though. There appears to be some opportunity for one of the two main opposition parties to consolidate the “change” vote and given that so many Liberal and NDP voters appear open to changing their mind, that could happen.
On the flip side, some of those same NDP or Liberal voters could also be persuaded to vote PC. 1 in 4 Liberal supporters and 1 in 5 NDP supporters say their second choice is the PCs so enough consolidation may not be possible as long as the PCs hold the level of support they have.
UPSHOT
According to Kelly Bennett: “It appears that Nova Scotians have accepted the rationale for a snap election this fall as few tell us they are unhappy with the Premier’s decision.
The audience wants to hear how the parties will make life more affordable and fix the healthcare system. Tim Houston and the PCs have the advantage today on both of those.
In what looks like a fight for second, Claudia Chender and Zach Churchill have just three weeks left to introduce themselves to much of Nova Scotia, define themselves and their positions all while making the case that Tim Houston doesn’t deserve another term. That’s a tall order.
Incumbents everywhere are facing strong headwinds, but our first survey suggests that Tim Houston and the PCs may find a relatively easier way to navigate them safely to another term.”
According to David Coletto: “As the first week of the campaign ends, Tim Houston and the PCs are in the driver’s seat. The PCs have a wide lead in vote intention, have the most popular leader, and own or are competitive on the top issues on voters’ minds.
If nothing changes in the opinion environment between now and late November, the PCs should win another majority.
But the data also shows a path forward for either the NDP or the Liberals. Neither has a clear advantage among those people who deeply want to see the PCs and Tim Houston replaced. Chender and Churchill still need to define themselves and their positions as they lead their first campaigns. Strong performances in the debates or a mistake by the PCs could create an opportunity to consolidate the anti-PC/pro-change forces.
However, our survey also suggests that about half of Liberal supporters would not consider voting NDP and half of NDP supporters would not consider voting Liberal. This means that the Liberals and NDP can’t count on each others voters to easily consolidate. In fact, many Liberal and NDP supporters say their second choice would be the PCs.
Perhaps the biggest hurdle the opposition parties have to face is the widespread expectation that the Tories are going to win. 48% think the PCs will win compared to 18% for the Liberals and only 6% for the NDP.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from October 28 to 31, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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