Mark Carney is more likely to expand the Liberal Party’s voter pool than Chrystia Freeland
January 29, 2025
With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down and a new Liberal leader set to be announced on March 9, 2025, our latest poll takes a close look at how Canadians view the three main candidates vying for his job: Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Karina Gould.
Key Takeaway: Carney Leads in Popularity and Potential Support
Mark Carney stands out with stronger impressions than the other two candidates. He enjoys a better overall rating among the general public—33% positive vs. 20% negative (for a net +13)—and he’s also viewed most favourably by current Liberal supporters. His positive image is one reason he could attract a larger pool of voters for the Liberals if he becomes leader.
Chrystia Freeland is more widely known but has higher negative ratings, which drags down her net impression to about -1. Among Liberal supporters, she remains popular, though she trails Carney in terms of net favourability.
Karina Gould is less well-known to Canadians: most haven’t formed a strong opinion about her yet, and nearly half say they don’t know enough to comment. This leaves her with lower positives than the other two.

Among Liberal Supporters
Among Liberal supporters, Carney leads with a +59 net impression (64% positive vs. 5% negative), Freeland follows at +44 (54% positive vs. 10% negative), and Gould sits at +22, reflecting her lower profile as many remain undecided about her.

Voter Accessibility: More Voters Open to Carney
We also measured the size of each candidate’s potential “accessible voter pool”—people who might consider voting Liberal if that candidate becomes leader. Carney’s numbers suggest that if he can maintain his current popularity or improve it, he could lift the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool by up to 7 points—bringing it to 49%. This is just a few points short of where the Conservatives currently stand, making Carney the most likely to broaden Liberal appeal.
Freeland’s boost, by comparison, would sit closer to 2 additional points, for a total of 44% accessibility.


The Upshot
With Trudeau’s departure, the Liberal leadership race is in full swing. Our poll indicates that Mark Carney not only tops the list in terms of net favourability among Canadians but also has the best shot at growing the Liberal vote. While Chrystia Freeland remains well-liked within the party, her negatives among the wider electorate are higher, limiting her potential reach. Karina Gould has room to build her profile but starts with less familiarity among voters.
The leadership campaign over the next 6 weeks could change these perceptions and views, but nor now, they suggest Carney is the frontrunner if the Liberals want to expand their base and compete neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in the next election.

Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,205 Canadian adults from January 22 to January 26, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
