Is Alberta Really Leaving Canada? What Canadians and Albertans Think About the Prospect of Alberta Sovereignty
June 5, 2025
Over the past few months, a growing conversation has emerged in Alberta around the possibility of holding a referendum on whether the province should separate from Canada and become an independent country. The idea of Alberta sovereignty is not new—but recent political rhetoric and policy disputes have brought it back to the surface.
To better understand where things stand, Abacus Data surveyed 2,273 Canadian adults—including a sample of 400 Albertans—in mid-May. While the Alberta sample is relatively small and limits our ability to report reliable regional, demographic, or political subgroup differences within the province, the data still provides an important national and provincial snapshot of how people are thinking about Alberta’s relationship with the rest of Canada.
And more than anything, this research offers a baseline: a way to understand how aware people are of the issue, what they think is likely to happen, and how they might respond to a hypothetical referendum. With attention to this issue potentially increasing, these benchmarks give us a way to measure change over time.
Most Albertans are paying attention
We began by asking Albertans how closely they have been following the news about a possible independence referendum. The results show a high degree of awareness and engagement:
- 21% say they are following the issue very closely
- 35% are following it pretty closely
- 38% have heard about it but aren’t following it closely
- Only 6% had not heard of it before
This means over half (56%) of Albertans say they are following the story with some level of closeness—indicating that talk of separation is far from fringe. While many may not support the idea, it’s on their radar.
But most don’t think it’s likely Alberta will separate
Despite the growing attention, few Albertans—or Canadians—believe independence is imminent.
When asked how likely they think it is that Alberta will leave Canada and become independent in the next five years:
- Only 14% of Albertans say it’s either “very likely” or “likely” to happen
- 63% think it’s unlikely or very unlikely
- Another 17% say it “could happen,” suggesting some level of uncertainty
These perceptions are consistent with those of Canadians outside Alberta. Nationally, just 13% say Alberta leaving Canada is likely, while 59% think it’s unlikely. That view is fairly stable across provinces—though Albertans themselves are more likely than Ontarians or Quebecers to think the outcome is unlikely to occur.
Still, in every region we polled, a majority believed Alberta separation is unlikely to happen. The perception of the movement remains more hypothetical than real.
Support for separation is low
We also tested support for the proposed referendum question by those organizing the citizen-initiated referendum: Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?
- Only 18% of Albertans said they would vote “yes”
- 69% said “no”
- And 13% were undecided
Even if we assume some undecideds might shift, these numbers suggest that support for full separation is relatively marginal at this point. There is not widespread appetite among the public for such a significant constitutional rupture. Among those who would vote UCP today (note this is a smaller sample of 154), 30% would support independence while 54% are opposed. Among NDP supporters, only 4% say they would vote yes.
It’s important to note that these are hypothetical responses. Opinions can shift quickly during a referendum campaign, depending on how the issue is framed and who is advocating for change. But as of now, most Albertans do not appear ready to leave.
Why perceptions matter
When it comes to an issue like Alberta separation, public opinion plays a dual role: it’s both a reflection of the current mood and a driver of political momentum. If more Albertans were to believe separation was possible—and desirable—it could shift the strategic incentives of political leaders.
But right now, the issue appears to be more symbolic than serious. Most Albertans are engaged in the conversation but do not believe separation is likely or advisable.
That gap between attention and action is crucial. In a province where feelings of alienation and frustration with federal policy have long simmered, independence may be a way of expressing grievance more than a genuine call for sovereignty. The polling helps distinguish between the two.
It also helps national policymakers understand how others in Canada perceive the threat. While there is little evidence of panic or urgency outside Alberta, the fact that only 14% of Canadians believe separation is likely suggests the rest of the country still views Alberta as firmly within the federation.
Political context: UCP Support Holding
This snapshot comes at a time of political movement within Alberta.
According to our latest vote intention numbers, if a provincial election were held today:
- The United Conservative Party (UCP) would receive 58% of the committed vote—all the change within the margin of error.
- The Alberta NDP is at 32%, down 8 points since June and a full 12 points since the last election suggesting a drop in support that’s outside the margin of error.
- Other parties now attract 10%, up 7 points over that same time frame
This shift suggests the UCP’s political support has held despite the discussion about sovereignty and independence.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,273 Canadian adults and 400 Alberta adults from May 15 to 21, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random national sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. For the Alberta sample, it is +/- 5.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s and Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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