Trudeau, Poilievre, Ford, and Smith: How are they doing handling the Canada-U.S. file?
February 19, 2025
Everything is about Donald Trump these days. In our issue tracking, he has become the second most cited issue. And the threat he poses to Canadians and the anxiety his decisions are creating puts immense pressure on political leaders to find the right tone, approach, and behaviour in response.
Our latest survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5–11, 2025) reveals notable shifts over the past two weeks in how the public rates four key figures: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. We replicated questions asked on a similar survey two weeks ago.
Across the country, Premier Ford continues to lead the pack, with 37% saying he’s doing an “Excellent or Good” job managing the U.S. file, compared to 28% who call his performance “Poor or Very Poor.” That net score of +14 is up from +8 just two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre perceived performance remains divided, inching up from a net of -1 to +1. Prime Minister Trudeau, though still in negative territory, shows the most dramatic rebound—moving from -34 in January to -17 now, thanks in part to his immediate response to Trump’s tariff ultimatum. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith rounds out the group at -9, a small bump from -11, though nearly three in ten still admit they don’t know enough about her to form a clear opinion.
Ontario: Ford in Front, Trudeau on the Rise
In Ontario, which accounts for almost half of Canada’s population, Doug Ford’s numbers climb even higher. Nearly four in ten (37%) Ontarians believe he’s done an excellent or good job safeguarding the province’s (and by extension the country’s) interests against an unpredictable White House. By contrast, about 34% of Ontarians say the same of Poilievre and 29% of Trudeau, while Smith lags at 19%. Ford’s lead isn’t a huge surprise: his hands-on approach to cross-border negotiations, frequent trips to American states, and emphasis on bolstering Ontario manufacturing and trade deals keep him highly visible.
Notably, though, Trudeau is the one enjoying the largest boost in Ontario, jumping from 22% to 29% giving him positive marks. The PM’s swift televised statement on the night Trump announced potential tariffs, followed by efforts to secure an exemption or delay, appear to resonate with enough Ontarians to soften previous criticisms of his leadership on U.S. relations.
Alberta: Poilievre and Smith Lead, But Gaps Remain
Turning westward to Alberta, Poilievre posts his best regional numbers, garnering a solid 40% “Excellent or Good” rating in the province. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is close behind at 38%—though she sees limited recognition or traction outside her home turf. In a region where Conservative politics have historically played well, it makes sense that Poilievre does best here, and Smith’s local popularity stands out, despite a lack of national familiarity.
Trudeau’s fortunes in Alberta remain comparatively low, but the Prime Minister has nudged himself from 10% in January to 20% this month. That’s still the lowest rating among the four leaders in Alberta, yet it’s a notable shift given his historically limited appeal there. Ford, for his part, notches 29% support in Alberta—a decent showing for a politician outside the province, though well below the two Conservative leaders in that region.
Trudeau and Poilievre are Deeply Polarizing
One notable theme running through the data is the stark partisanship that shapes views of these leaders, with Trudeau and Poilievre as the clearest examples of polarization. Trudeau enjoys a lofty net rating of +53 among Liberal voters, yet plunges to -66 among Conservatives. Among NDP supporters, Trudeau is even. Poilievre sees the opposite dynamic: a very solid +58 with CPC supporters but a dismal -62 among Liberals and -49 among NDP supporters.
Views of Doug Ford are less polarizing. He gets as high a score among Liberal supporters as he does among Conservative ones nationally. Danielle Smith’s numbers look more like Pierre Poilievre with Liberals and NDP supporters largely disapproving with Conservatives more likely to think she’s doing a good job.
The Upshot
Trudeau’s improved standing is perhaps the most striking takeaway from this survey. Although his ratings remain in negative territory overall, his jump from -34 to -17 in the span of two weeks suggests a swift, tangible shift in public attitudes. His televised speech responding to President Trump’s tariff threats, coupled with behind-the-scenes efforts to stave off an outright trade war, improved perceptions of his handling of the issue.
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre continues to illustrate the country’s partisan divide: he’s deeply admired by many Conservative voters but elicits caution—or outright disapproval—from Liberals and the NDP. That dynamic is most evident in Alberta, where Poilievre sees his highest approval levels, but it also resonates in Ontario, where he still has solid support. Interestingly, though, Ontario Premier Doug Ford now stands as the most broadly approved figure nationally. His hands-on approach in negotiating with American partners and his vocal defence of Ontario’s and Canada’s economy seem to be translating into net-positive impressions well beyond his home province—an indication of his newly elevated national profile.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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