By Eric Grenier
October 7, 2011
Ironically, in light of the controversy stirred up in the opening days of the campaign, the two most accurate polls came from the newest firms: Forum Research, with a total error of only 1.6 points and using the IVR method, and Abacus Data, with a total error of 4.4 points using an online panel. Nanos Research, The Globe and Mail’s official pollster, had a total variance of 6.2 points across the four parties on their last three day sample, but that dropped to 5.5 points on their final two day sample. Nanos does its polling using the traditional telephone method, and as in the federal campaign was among the top performers.
The final results were within the reported margins of error of all three of these firms. From a statistical perspective, Forum, Abacus, and Nanos accurately predicted the outcome.
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