Abacus Data Poll: Conservative lead drops, but Liberals still 21-points behind
January 28, 2025
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2025 and interviewed 2,205 Canadian adults.
Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops, but Liberals still 21-points behind
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 22% would vote Liberal, and 18% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 9% nationally, while the Greens are at 5% and the People’s Party at 3%, with no measurable support going to other parties.

Compared to our last update, the Conservative vote share has dipped by 3 points, while Liberal support is up 2. The NDP is down 1 point, and the Greens have also inched upward by 1 point. Despite the slight decline, the Conservatives continue to hold a substantial lead—21 points ahead of the Liberals.

Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows: support for the Conservatives increases to 45%, the Liberals drop to 20% and the NDP gain one to 19% reflecting a 2-point boost for the Conservatives and a 3-point turnout suppression for the Liberals relative to the overall committed voter pool.

Regionally, the Conservatives lead in every region or province except for Quebec where the BQ is well ahead of the Conservatives in second and the Liberals in third. In Ontario, 45% of adults in that province would vote Conservative (down 5 since last time), with the Liberals at 27% (+4) and the NDP at 17% (-1).

The Conservatives continue to lead across all age groups and among men and women.



We also see the Conservatives leading across all levels of education, though the gap narrows among those with a university degree. Among Canadians with a high school education or less, 44% would vote Conservative, 21% Liberal, and 17% NDP.
Those with some college education or a college diploma show a similar Conservative advantage at 44%, with 19% opting for the Liberals and 20% backing the NDP.
Among university-educated Canadians, Conservative support declines slightly to 39% (down 4), while the Liberals rise to 28% (+4) and the NDP to 18%.


Direction of the Country
When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, only 23% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 62% think the country is on the wrong track. These results remain near the lower end of our historical tracking, indicating a persistent sense of unease about the nation’s current direction. Despite improved vote share for the Liberals, the overall mood of the country remains quite sour.


Canadians continue to hold predominantly negative views of Justin Trudeau. Only about one in five Canadians (around 22%) say they have a positive impression of him, while approximately 61% express a negative view. This represents a net score of around -39, a slight improvement from last wave.

Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. 40% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, the same proportion with a negative impression. We have seen no real shift in views towards Mr. Poilievre in the past few weeks.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s image continues to be more negative than in the past. 29% hold a positive impression, while 41% say they have a negative view, giving him a net score of -12.

Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. Six in 10 have a negative opinion of him, while 21% view him positively. President Trump’s negatives have increased 5-points over the past two months.

Desire for Change Softens
One of the bigger shifts we have seen in public opinion is desire for change. Although almost half of Canadians continue to say they think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative (49%), that number is down 7 points since mid-December (when Chrystia Freeland resigned as Finance Minister). At the same time, those who believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up 4-points to 16% – a level we regularly measured prior to Freeland’s resignation and well below the 21% high point since tracking this question in June 2023.

Shift in Accessible Voter Pools
Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 51% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, the highest among all parties but down 4 points in two weeks. The Liberal Party’s pool stands at 42% (a 4-point increase), while the NDP pool is at 39% (down 1).
This is the largest the accessible voter pool has been for the Liberals since the beginning of last year.


Big Shift in Election Outcome Expectations
The biggest change we have measured over the past two weeks comes when we ask people who they think will win the next federal election.
Today, 53% predict a Conservative victory, down from 62% on January 14. 17% now think the Liberals will come out on top, up 7. 8% foresee an NDP win, and 22% remain unsure. This represents a shift back to expectations we measured in November and December 2024.

The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “There has been a change in opinions and intentions over the past two weeks, but that change has been small. Unlike some other polls that have been released in recent days, we continue to see the Conservatives well ahead of the Liberals but there is a shift in some key metrics that are worth noting.
While some measures have improved for the Liberals, they mostly represent a return to the levels they were before Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet. We have seen no change in how Canadians feel about Pierre Poilievre, the direction of the country, or the Prime Minister.
Mr. Trudeau’s resignation, the start of the Liberal Party’s leadership race, and Donald Trump’s inauguration has given the Liberals a boost and expanded their accessible voter pool, but we don’t see any evidence that political environment has fundamentally changed.
We will have new numbers on the Liberal leadership race later this week. Stay tuned.”
You can purchase the data tables for this survey here.

Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,205 Canadian adults from January 22 to January 26, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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