Abacus Data Poll: The Opinion Landscape in Canada Continues to Shift
February 27, 2025
From February 20 to 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults.
We find that the horse race continues to tighten as perceptions and impressions shift. The opinion landscape is evolving and looks quite different than the one we have seen over the previous 18 months.
Here is what we see:
1 – Optimism about the direction of the country hits a two-year high.
Today, 30% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, an 11-point increase from the low-point in the middle of December. In contrast, 54% think the country is off on the wrong track.
2 – The desire for change is shifting.
Today, just under half of Canadians say they want a change in government and believe there is a good alternative available. At 48%, this measure is down 8 points in two months and the lowest it’s been since August 2023. At the same time, those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected are up to 20%
3 – The cost of living, Trump, healthcare, housing, and the economy are the top issues
We haven’t seen much change in the issue set with the cost of living, Trump, healthcare, housing, and the economy in the top 5 issues.
When we follow up and ask people who rated an issue in their top 3 which party they think is best able to handle it, the Conservatives continue to lead on the cost of living (by 16 over the Liberals), on housing (by 9 over the Liberals), and the economy (by 22). The Liberals have opened up a 10-point lead among those who rate Trump and his administration as a top issue.
4 – For the first time since last summer, less than half of Canadians think the Conservatives will win the next election.
Today, 46% of Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election, down 6 points in two weeks and down 16-points since the middle of January. Those who think the Liberals will win the next election is up 6 points, a high since the beginning of last year.
5 – Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Canada
Today, 18% of Canadians have a positive impression of Donald Trump while 68% have a negative view. Liberal (79%), NDP (82%), and BQ (94%) supporters are almost in universal agreement about having a negative view of Trump. Conservative supporters are more divided. 33% of Conservative supporters have a positive view, 20% neutral, and 48% negative.
6 – The Liberal leadership race
We continue to track how Canadians feel about the leading candidates running to be the next Liberal leader. Mark Carney continues to have the most favourable impression. 36% of Canadians have a positive view of Carney (up 3 since the end of January) while 26% have a negative view (up 6) for a net score of +10. In contrast, Chrystia Freeland’s net score is -2.
At the same time, Mark Carney continues to offer the Liberals the best chance at increasing their support. 29% of Canadians say they would definitely or probably vote Liberal if Mark Carney is leader – 5 points more than say the same thing about Chrystia Freeland. The proportion of Canadians who say they will not vote Liberal if Carney is leader is 7-points smaller than those who feel the same about Freeland.
Based on this data, we estimate that Mark Carney could add up to 6 percentage points to the Liberal vote share taking almost equally from the Conservatives, NDP, Greens, and BQ.
The Impact on Political Opinions and Intended Behaviour
Given all of these shifts in broader perceptions and opinions, we also see changes in political opinions and intended behaviour.
1 – The accessible voter pools for the Conservative and Liberal parties are almost equal in size.
For the first time since the summer of 2023, the accessible voter pools available to the Conservative and Liberal parties are about equal. Today, 51% of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative, only 3-points larger than the 48% open to voting Liberal. Since the middle of December, the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool has increased by 12 points. That’s about 3 million Canadian adults now open to voting Liberal who weren’t only a few months ago.
2 – Negative impressions of Justin Trudeau are down while views of Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh are holding steady.
We continue to see an improvement in views towards Justin Trudeau. Today, 26% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister (up 7 in two months) while those with a negative view are down 8 to 56%. His net impression score is now -30.
At the same time, despite shifts in broader perceptions, views about Pierre Poilievre are holding steady. Today, 41% have a positive view of Pierre Poilievre while 41% have a negative impression for a net score of 0.
We also see little change in views towards Jagmeet Singh. 28% have a positive impression compared with 40% who have a negative view for a net score of -12.
3 – Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops to 12 as Liberal vote share continues to rise
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 29% would vote Liberal, and 14% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 6% nationally, while the Greens are at 4% and the People’s Party at 3%. Since our last survey two weeks ago, the Conservatives are down 5, the Liberals up 2, and every other party has seen a marginal shift. The NDP vote share at 14% is the lowest we have measured for the party is October 2016. The last time we had the Liberals at 29% was in June 2023.
Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows slightly, although not as much as it has in the past suggesting that Liberal voters continued to be as engaged and enthusiastic about voting as Conservatives. Today, the Conservatives have 42% among the most likely voters compared with 28% for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15%.
Regionally, the Liberals are up 7 in BC, 6 in Quebec, and 8 in Alberta. In Ontario, we haven’t seen much change from our previous survey. The Conservatives continue to lead in BC, the Prairies, Ontario, and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.
When we combine B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and look at the trend over time, we find the Liberal share in those provinces rising substantially over the past month.
Today, 31% would vote Liberal in those provinces up from 22% in mid-January compared while 44% in those provinces would vote Conservative. This is the highest Liberal vote share in those provinces since we started tracking these three provinces combined a year ago.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women, but we continue to see Liberal growth among those aged 60 and over. The Conservatives lead by 15 among men and 9 among women.
When we look at the relationship between vote and educational attainment, the Conservatives continue to lead by a wide margin among those with high school education and those with a college degree or some university. Among those with a university degree, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals is all but gone – the Conservatives are only marginally ahead of the Liberals.
When we compare current vote intention with past recalled vote (in 2021), we find that more than 85% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 say they will vote Conservative again (down 5 from two weeks ago). Much of those are now undecided.
In contrast, 66% of past Liberal voters say they would vote Liberal, that’s up 6 points in two weeks and up 16 points since Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement. The Liberal coalition is coming back together. We have seen a 6-point drop in past Liberal voters who say they are undecided.
In contrast, the NDP’s 2021 coalition of voters continues to splinter. Today, just over half of past NDP supporters (56%) say they would vote NDP again. That’s down 4 points in two weeks, and down 14 points since Trudeau’s resignation announcement. 16% of past NDP supporters say they would vote Conservative while 10% would vote Liberal.
We continue to see the Conservatives getting the largest share of those who didn’t vote in the last election.
Overall, the data points to a re-consolidation of the Liberals, moderate softening for the Conservatives, and a deep splintering of the NDP’s previous support.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Donald Trump’s shadow over Canadian political discourse continues to pose a challenge for the Conservatives, as their supporter base is far less united in its opposition to the former U.S. President than backers of other parties. While many Conservatives reject Trump’s rhetoric, a notable segment remains favourably disposed towards him, creating an internal rift that simply does not exist among Liberals, New Democrats, or Bloc Québécois voters. If Trump and his policies remain a focal point of public debate, the Conservatives risk being forced to contend with these divisions at the ballot box.
At the same time, Canadians’ outlook on the direction of the country has improved significantly, with the proportion saying it is heading in the right direction now at a two-year high. This more upbeat mood often makes voters less receptive to arguments for wholesale change and more inclined to give incumbents or new faces within the governing party a second look. The Liberals stand to benefit, particularly if they can continue to distance themselves from Trump’s brand of politics, offering some change from the Trudeau years, while pitching themselves as steady hands in an improving national climate.
Perhaps the most consequential development is the rise of Mark Carney as a potential Liberal leader who can deliver on this growing demand. By pulling support from across the spectrum—including the Conservatives and, in particular, a sizable chunk of the NDP vote—Carney has the potential to narrow the Conservative lead to just four points, according to current modeling. Taken together, these factors point to a newly fluid and competitive opinion environment, unlike anything observed in the last two years. While the Conservatives remain favoured, the foundations for a tightly fought race are clearly emerging.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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