Abacus Data Poll: As Parliament Resumes and on the Eve of Two Crucial Byelections, the Conservatives lead by 21
September 15, 2024
From September 5 to 12, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,964 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers, along with gauging the firmness of Conservative Party support. This survey was done entirely after Jagmeet Singh announced he was ending the Confidence and Supply Agreement with the Liberal government and after the recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 21 over the Liberals
The gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has grown by 4 points since our last survey in August.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 35% of the vote in Quebec. The Liberal vote share is down 3, the Conservative share is up 1, while the NDP vote is unchanged.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, by 46 points in Alberta, 21 points in Saskatchewan, 21 points in Manitoba, 21 points in Ontario, and by 17 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 11 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.
Liberal support is higher among those aged 18 to 29 and 60+ than it is among those aged 30 to 59.
For the last three waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 49% of men would vote Conservative compared with 37% of women. Liberal support is consistent between men and women while NDP support is 7-points higher among women than among men.
The Conservative Party’s lead grows to 26-points if you look at the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election. The Conservatives would get 47% compared with 21% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP. The Greens see the biggest hit to vote share losing almost half its vote.
Over the last few months the intensity of the country’s desire for change has also increased. 86% want change overall (unchanged), and 56% want change and believe there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (up 1 point and up 4 since July). Only 14% of Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
The federal government’s approval rating has also worsened.
Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 3 in a month) while dissaproval has reached a new high in our tracking at 62%.
The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister. As Parliament is set to reconvene on Monday and two key byelections are set to conclude, all while the Prime Minister insists he will not resign (even if the Liberals lose the Montreal byelection)( views of Justin Trudeau have reached a new low.
Today, 22% (down 2 points) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (up 2 points) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -39. The is the worst net score we have measured for Mr. Trudeau.
Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourable score is -45 in BC, -54 in Alberta, -40 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -34 in Ontario, -22 in Quebec, and -32 in Atlantic Canada.
Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, 22% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives are also up. Since last month, those with a negative impression of Mr. Singh are up 3 while positive impressions are down 4. Mr. Singh now has a net impression of -9, his lowest ever in our tracking.
Most of the shift in views of Mr. Singh comes from current Liberal supporters. Compared with our last wave, negative impressions of Mr. Singh are up 11-points among Liberals (from 12% to 23%) and up three points among Conservative supporters (from 62% to 65%). Views are unchanged among current NDP supporters.
Among those who said they voted NDP in 2021, 67% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 11% have a negative impression. Compared with last month, positive impressions among past NDP supporters are down 5 while negatives unchanged.
In contrast to Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Singh, views of Mr. Poilievre are largely unchanged. 39% have a positive view (down 3 since early August) while his negatives are at 35% for a net score of +4.
Regionally, net scores for Mr. Poilievre are +18 in BC, +29 in Alberta, +15 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +6 in Ontario, -20 in Quebec, and +1 in Atlantic Canada.
Mr. Polievre is far more popular among those under 30 than those over 60. His net score is +11 with those aged 18 to 29, but -10 among those aged 60+.
How Firm is Conservative Party Support?
In this edition we asked current Conservative supporters whether there’s any possibility that they could change their mind in which party they would vote for. Overall, 62% of Conservative supporters say they will vote Conservative no matter what happens. This group represents 27% of the committed electorate at the moment. This is the floor for Conservative support.
Another 32% say they could change their mind, but it’s unlikely. This group is 14% of committed voters and when added to the 27% who are solid Conservatives adds up to 41%.
Only 6% of Conservative supporters indicate some likelihood that their minds could change which represents 2% of the committed electorate.
In short, Conservative support appears quite firm.
When we did a little deeper to explore the larger group of Conservative supporters who say they could change their mind, but it’s unlikely, a few insights emerge:
Trudeau’s net favourable score is -79, Jagmeet Singh’s net score is -34, while Pierre Poilievre’s net score is +76. Almost all of these voters dislike Trudeau, like Poilievre, but have more mixed views of Jagmeet Singh.
Only 2% believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected and 98% want a change in government. But 17% say they want change but there isn’t a good alternative to Trudeau and the Liberals. This subset may be parking their vote with the Conservatives right now, but could be persuaded if a better alternative to the Liberals, in their minds, emerges.
65% of this group are men, particularly men aged 30 to 44.
The distribution of this group regionally more or less matches the national population, except for a smaller proportion coming from Quebec.
From an issue perspective, 70% rate the cost of living as a top 3 issue and they are more likely to say immigration, the economy, and crime are top issues than the rest of the electorate.
When we look at their second choice preference, 22% say they have no second choice. 18% pick the NDP, 15% the People’s Party of Canada, and 13% the Liberals. 15% say they are unsure of their second choice.
If the Liberals and NDP could persuade these “slightly open to being persuaded” Conservative supporters to vote for their second choice, the new vote federal vote shares would be:
Conservative 39% (down 4)
Liberal 24% (up 2)
NDP 21% (up 3)
This suggests that even if they could persuade these Conservative supporters to switch, the Conservatives would still be leading by around 15%.
Would a Poilievre-led Conservative government make things better or worse?
To further understand perceptions about a possible Conservative government, we asked Canadians whether they thought several policy areas and outcomes would get better, worse, or not change if the Conservative Party wins the next election.
Overall, the results suggest that only a minority believe that anything will improve. But at the same time, only a minority think things would get worse. Most Canadians, on most outcomes tested, think things would not change much or they aren’t sure.
Areas where more Canadians think things would improve rather than get worse under a Conservative government are economic growth, the deficit, crime, management of immigration, and Canada’s reputation around the world.
Areas where Canadians are more likely to think things will get worse under a Conservative government are action on climate change, environmental protection, support for social programs like childcare and dental care, and efforts to address Indigenous issues and reconciliation.
But when we isolate three key groups, the insights become more clear. When we look at those who would vote Conservative today (43% of committed electors), expectations of improvement are more universal when it comes to Canada’s reputation globally, management of immigration, economic growth, the deficit, and housing affordability, In all of these cases, the net perception was +60 or higher.
Among Liberal/Conservative switchers, those who say they voted Liberal in 2021 but now support the Conservatives, the patterns are similar. These voters overwhelmingly think that things like the economy, the deficit, immigration, and housing affordability will improve under a Conservative government.
For Accessible CPC (those open to voting Conservative but don’t currently support the party), the Conservative strengths on the economy, fiscal management, and immigration while their vulnerabilities are national programs like childcare and dental care and healthcare. Climate and the environment are not major factors.
This data suggests a few things.
First, there are many Canadians who have not yet thought or know what to expect from a Conservative government. This is both a threat for the Conservatives and an opportunity for their opponents. There is still room to define and set perceptions. The challenge is that those who are voting Conservative feel fairly confident they know what a Conservative government will do. Changing their mind while the focus of their dissatisfaction (Justin Trudeau) is still leading the country will be difficult.
Second, right now, issues that might otherwise be vulnerabilities for the Conservatives – like climate change – are not right now because that issue isn’t as salient as the issues they perform better on. Unless that changes, we expect the Conservatives to continue to hold a sizeable advantage over the other parties.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As Parliament is set to resume tomorrow and two crucial byelections will be decided on the same day, the opinion environment has never been as bad for the incumbent Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau nor as good for the Conservatives.
Our tracking shows that Mr. Singh’s decision to end the Confidence and Supply Agreement has had no impact on NDP support. It has soured many Liberals to Mr. Singh, pushing his personal favourability scores to the lowest they have ever been.
At the same time, all the key trackers for Mr. Trudeau and his government are also more negative. His -39 net score is the worst we’ve measured. Only 22% of Canadians approve of the job his government is doing, also an all-time low. And perhaps most troubling, among those most certain to vote right now, the Conservatives are ahead by a crushing 25-points.
The Prime Minister and the Liberals come back to Parliament facing a population who wants change, is deeply unhappy with their performance, are no more optimistic about the direction of the country than when the summer started, and have never had as negative a view of the Prime Minister as it does today.
The Conservatives are ahead by such a large margin in part because of some affinity for Mr. Poilievre. His +4 net rating is the best among the three main party leaders. But what unites almost all of the Conservative voting coalition is a deep antipathy towards Justin Trudeau, rather than a deep affinity for Mr. Poilievre.
That being said, the Conservative vote right now is solid. Only 6% of the party’s supporters say they would probably change their mind. Everyone else is pretty locked in and don’t believe there’s much likelihood they will change their minds.
In this environment – where Canadians have decided what they don’t like and want less of and enough are convinced of what they do – the outcome of the next election looks more certain after each passing month.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,964 Canadian adults from September 5 to 12, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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