Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 20 as positive impressions of Pierre Poilievre rise
August 11, 2024
From July 31 to August 7, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we ask about the most important issues facing Canadians, along with our usual trackers.
Vote Intention: Conservatives continue ahead, lead by 20 over the Liberals
In what is now a persistent trend (and now the sixteenth survey in a row), the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals remains close to 20 points.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 23% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ holds 30% in Quebec.
Every party’s vote share is consistent with our last survey, with very minor changes, as the Conservatives are up 1 and the NDP are down 2. These changes are also within the margin of error.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead in all provinces or regions and in this survey are statistically tied with the BQ in Quebec.
Outside Quebec, the Conservatives have a 25-point lead over the Liberals and are close to earning half of those who are committed to a political party at the moment. The Liberals and the NDP are statistically tied outside Quebec.
As vote intention remains relatively stable, Conservatives remain ahead among all demographic groups. Conservative support remains high among 30-to-44 (2 points down from our last survey) and 42% among 60-and-over (no changes).
Still, there is a small change from our last survey. Conservative support among those 45-to-59 increased 7 points, as support for the NDP shrunk slightly (4 points down) and support for the Liberals remans steady.
As we have consistently found in recent surveys, there is little difference in vote intention between men and women. Liberal vote share is slightly higher among men than women while the NDP does better among women than men. The Conservative vote share is consistent regardless of gender.
Poilievre’s positive impressions rise, as Conservatives’ accessible voter pools widens
While we have not seen any noticeable shift in vote intention, there have been other notable changes.
The size of the Conservative Party’s accessible voter pools has increased. Today the Conservative pool is 16-points larger than the Liberal one. 55% of Canadians say they are open to voting Conservative compared with 39% for the Liberals. 42% are open to voting for the NDP.
As the Conservatives work to grow their support by going after past Liberal, NDP, and BQ supporters, here’s the percentage of each of those party’s CURRENT supporters who are open to voting Conservative:
24% of Liberal supporters are open to voting Conservative (5% of the electorate)
20% of NDP supporters are open to voting Conservative (3% of the electorate)
10% of BQ supporters are open to voting Conservative (1% of the electorate)
In contrast, when we look at CURRENT Conservative, NDP, and BQ supporters, the following percentages are open to voting Liberal:
9% of Conservative supporters are open to voting Liberal (3% of the electorate)
41% of NDP supporters are open to voting Liberal (7% of the electorate)
20% of BQ supporters are open to voting Liberal (1% of the electorate)
Along with growth in its accessible voter pool, impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre have also improved.
Today, 42% of Canadians have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre (the highest we have ever measured) compared with 35% who have a negative view. The net score of +7 is close to the highest we have measured for the Conservative leader. Over the summer, Mr. Poilievre’s positive impressions have increased by 4 points.
At the same time, we have not seen any change in how people feel about Justin Trudeau. Today, 25% have a positive view and 58% have a negative one for a net score of -33. Negative views of the Prime Minister have ranged between 57% to 59% consistently since the start of the year.
We have also seen a shift in views about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Today, 37% have a negative view of Mr. Singh, the hghest we have recorded compared with 33% who have a positive view for a net score of -4. This may indicate that the Conservative Party ads against Mr. Singh, may be putting pressure on his image. Among current CPC supporters, 63% have a negative impression of Mr. Singh compared with only 11% who have a positive view. Among NDP supporters open to voting Conservative (6% of the electorate), 41% have a positive impression, 41% neutral, and 16% negative towards Mr. Singh.
Other Measures
Beyond vote intention, the desire for change remains largely consistent and within the margin of error. 84% want change, with 53% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (down 1).
Negative impressions of the federal government’s performance are trending down with 57% disapproving (down 3 since July) and 27% approving (up 2).
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
Most important issues facing Canadians
In this edition, we also asked Canadians about the most important policy issues today. We changed the list of items adding in the prospect of another Trump presidency and job security and removing Chinese election interference and freedom in Canada.
As in previous surveys, the majority of Canadians (64%) believe the rising cost of living is among the 3 most important issues, followed by healthcare (44%) and housing affordability and accessibility (43%).
The top three issues for Conservative supporters are the cost of living, the economy, and housing. They are more likely to rate immigration, political correctness, and crime as a top issue than other party supporters and far less likely to rate climate change as a top issue.
Liberal supporters rate the cost of living, healthcare, and housing as their top three issues. They are more likely to rate climate change and the environment and another Trump presidency as a top issue than other party supporters.
NDP supporters rate the cost of living, housing, and healthcare as their top three issues and overindex on inequality and poverty and climate change and the environment.
In this edition, we also asked about job security and the possibility of another Trump presidency. In both cases, only 10% of Canadians believe either issue is among the top 3. This, however, differs considerably among party supporters. While 18% of Liberal supporters believe another Trump presidency is a top issue, only 5% of Conservative supporters believe so.
When we ask those who rated an issue as a top issue which party they think will best handle the issue, the Conservatives lead on 4 of the top 6 issues (cost of living, housing, economy, and immigration). The Conservatives and NDP are tied on healthcare while the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Greens among those who care most about climate change and the environment.
The Liberals are in third on the cost of living, housing, and immigration and trail the Conservatives by 34 among those who rate the economy as a top issue.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As August begins, the political opinion environment looks almost exactly as it was when summer started and even when the year started.
There remains a deep and broad desire for change. Canadians remain focused on affordability issues and healthcare, and the Prime Minister trails the opposition leaders on net favourability by a wide margin.
If we use this poll to assess who is winning and losing the summer so far, it’s clear the Conservatives are. They continue to not only hold onto their 20-point lead but are making important gains in what I believe are more important underlying metrics.
Views of Pierre Poilievre are improving (hitting the highest level of positive impressions we have ever measured) and more Canadians are now open to voting Conservative than at any point since the 2015 federal election. Growing the pool of accessible voters and protecting Mr. Poilievre’s image are essential to holding current supporters but more importantly, gives the party room to expand its vote share. With a massive fundraising advantage, the Conservatives are able to be on the offensive against all three of its main opponents – the Liberals, NDP, and BQ and there’s evidence in this survey that their strategy is working.
For the Liberals, this survey continues to offer little in the way of good news. There’s been no progress in shifting public opinion about the Prime Minister. As I noted in my last analysis, the relationship between how people feel abotu Trudeau and how they intend to vote is strong and has not changed since 2015. Unless they can change how people feel about the Prime Minister, the path back to competitiveness will be very difficult.
And there doesn’t appear to be any impact of the rapid shift in American politics. The excitement for Kamala Harris in the US and the re-engagement of Democrats there has not had any discernable impact on Canadian public opinion.
We will have new data out shortly that shows Kamala Harris’ net favourable far exceeds any political leader in Canada already. Even among Conservative supporters, there’s considerable positive feelings toward her. That has not carried over to Trudeau or Singh.
For the NDP, these results should highlight the fragility of its coalition. Mr. Singh’s negatives are rising (to the highest point we have ever measured) and the sustained assault on his image by the Conservatives could cost the party considerable support. 1 in 5 of current NDP supporters are open to voting Conservative and 1 in 10 say the Conservative Party is their second choice. That vote is likely highly concentrated in ridings where even a few point swing could flip several NDP seats to the Conservatives.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.489%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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