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By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

We completed a national survey of 2,200 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022.

Here’s a snapshot of our findings.

PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Since early December, the mood of the country has soured as Omicron has spread and anxiety about the pandemic has increased. Today, 37% feel the country is headed in the right direction (down 5 from early December) while 47% think it’s on the wrong track, up 4. Views on the direction of the world and the United States have also taken a negative turn.

The overall shift in mood is mirrored by rising anxiety about the pandemic. Today 47% say they have become more worried about the pandemic over the past few days – an increase of 3-points since the end of November and a 23-point since October. 1 in 3 Canadians believes that the worst of the pandemic is still to come, up 5 since late November.

Despite this shift in mood, impressions of the federal government are unchanged from late November.

Slightly more approve (44%) than disapprove (40%) of the federal government, almost exactly the same levels as at the end of November. The Trudeau government’s net approval (approve – disapprove) regionally is -5 in BC, -24 in Alberta, -4 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +5 in Ontario, +19 in Quebec, and +18 in Atlantic Canada.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -2. This is largely unchanged from the end of November.

Today 21% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole while his negatives are at 46% for a net score of -25. A slight worsening since November and the highest negatives we’ve recorded for him.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 40% and finds negative impressions among 23% for a net score of +17, also similar to our results in November but his positives are down 6 points the election in September.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 38% positive and 24% negative for a net score of +14. Mr. Trudeau is +11 and Mr. O’Toole is -29 in Quebec.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 32% of the vote (in line with the 2021 election share and unchanged from November 2021), the Conservatives would win 30% (4-points lower than their share in the election and unchanged from November) and the NDP 19% (1-point higher). The BQ is at 8% nationally while the People’s Party is at 7% and the Greens at 3%.

• BC: a three-way race with the NDP at 33%, Liberals at 32%, and the Conservatives at 27%.

• Alberta: 54% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 17% for the Liberal Party, and 6% for the People’s Party.

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberal at 27% and the NDP at 21%.

• Ontario: The Liberals have a 3-point lead over the Conservatives (37% to 34%) with the NDP in third at 19%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario.

• Quebec: We see the BQ slightly ahead of the Liberals (35% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 13%, the NDP at 9%, and the People’s Party at 8%.

• Atlantic: The Liberals lead by 7 with 33% compared with 26% for the NDP, 25% for the Conservatives, and 10% for the People’s Party.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s January, there’s been catastrophic floods in BC, rising inflation, a raging new Covid variant, and more turmoil around schools and other lockdown measures, affecting businesses and daily lives of millions. Canadians, given all of that, seem pretty stoic for the moment – certainly, the mix of challenges is not taking a toll on support levels for the federal government or showing up as an opportunity for other parties, with the possible exception of the Peoples Party, as anti-vax sentiment becomes more prominent and polarizing. Canadians seem to be inclined to ignore most of what’s happening in politics right now, and work to get through what continues to be an unprecedented number of challenges for many people, in their everyday lives.”

 

According to David Coletto: “

Very little has changed since late November in terms of Canadian public opinion towards politics. Although the rise of Omicron has certainly soured many Canadians’ mood, this shift has not had much impact on how the public views the federal government and political leaders in Ottawa.

Right now, the public is clearly focused on getting through this challenging period and few are likely paying much attention to politics

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METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from January 7 to 12, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.089%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

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