Abacus Data Poll: Conservative lead down to 4 as Liberals reach highest vote share since August 2021
March 16, 2025
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday.
We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in perceptions and priorities continues.
Here is what we see:
Vote Intention: Conservative 38, Liberal 34, NDP 15
If an election was held at the time of this survey, the Conservatives would get 38% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 15% and the BQ at 7% nationally (30% in Quebec).
Compared to our previous survey, the Liberals are up 5, the Conservatives down 5 while the NDP is up a marginal 1-point. In two months, the Liberal vote share is up 14-points (from 20% to 34%) while the Conservative vote share is down 8 (from 46% to 38%).
Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead in B.C. and the Prairies. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Ontario and Atlantic Canada while the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the BQ in Quebec (37% to 30%).
When we aggregate B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, we find the Conservatives leading the Liberals by four points (40% to 36%). Since mid-January, the Conservative vote share in these three provinces is down 11 points while the Liberal vote share is up 14.
Demographically, we see the Liberals gaining across all age groups and among men and women. The Liberals trail the Conservatives by 5 among those under 30, are 11-points behind among those aged 30 to 44 while both parties are statistically tied among those over 45.
The Conservatives have an eight-point lead among men while both parties are statistically tied among women.
One of the main reasons the Liberal vote share has grown is by reassembling its 2021 voter coalition. Today, 72% of 2021 Liberal voters say they will vote Liberal again, up 12 points in a month and up 6 since our last survey. In contrast, 82% of past Conservative voters say they will vote Conservative again, down 3 since last wave, and down 6 since a month ago. For the NDP, 61% of its past voters are loyal with 16% now saying they will vote Liberal and 9% voting Conservative.
Leader Impressions
Today, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of Liberal Leader Mark Carney while 30% have a negative view for a net score of +7.
Pierre Poilievre’s net impressions are down overall. 36% have a positive view of the Conservative Leader, down 5 while 43% have a negative view – the highest we have ever measured. Mr. Poilievre’s net score is -7.
Views towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged – 29% positive versus 41% negative for a net score of -12.
The Trump Effect
Donald Trump continues to insert himself into domestic politics in Canada and is having an oversized impact on public opinion.
Views of the U.S. President continue to deterioriate. Today, only 13% of Canadians have a positive view of Trump, down 8 points over the past two months. In contrast, 75% have a negative impression, the highest we have ever measured. Of note, 65% say they have a very negative impression of the U.S. President.
While 88% of Liberal supporters and 87% of NDP supporters have a negative impression of Donald Trump, Conservatives are more divided. 1 in 4 Conservative supporters (23%) have a positive impression of Trump while 59% have a negative view.
Trump has also increasingly become the focus for Canadians. When asked to select their top three issues facing the country, 50% now put Trump and his administration in their top 3 issues, up 11 points in two weeks. The gap between the cost of living (61%) and Trump (50%) is now just 11 points. The economy, healthcare, and housing round out the top 5.
When we ask people who selected an issue which party they feel is best able to handle that issue, the Conservatives still have a big advantage on the cost of living, housing, the economy, immigration, and crime. But the Liberal advantage on Trump has grown to 14-points among those who rate it as a top issue.
If only those who rate the cost of living as a top issue voted, the Conservatives would get 38% of the vote followed by the Liberals at 37% and the NDP at 14%.
If only those who rate Trump as a top issue voted, the Liberals would win by almost 20-points, 47% to 28% with the NDP well back in third at 13%. This underscores just how helpful Trump has been to the Liberals.
Numerically, the Liberals now have a larger voter pool than the Conservatives
Perhaps more important for the Liberals and troubling for the Conservatives is the shift in accessible voter pools. Today, 50% of Canadians say they are open to voting Liberal while 49% are open to voting Conservative. This is the first time since November 2021 that the Liberal accessible voter pool is numerically larger than the Conservative one in our tracking.
That being said, the Conservatives still have a large pool of persuadable voters suggesting an election campaign may be very important in shaping people’s views of their choices. 16% of Canadians are open right now to voting for either the Liberals or Conservatives. They will likely decide the next election.
Perceptions About Who Will Win the Next Election
The perception gap between the Conservatives and Liberals continues to close on who Canadians think will win the next election. 41% think the Conservatives will win (down 11 in a month) while 32% think the Liberals will win (up 12 in a month). Only 6% think the NDP are positioned to win.
Carney vs. Poilievre: Who is best at…
In this survey, we replicated a set of questions we previously asked in April 2024. Somewhat unconventionally, we asked people between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, who they thought would be better at some real-life scenarios.
Back in April, when we asked about Trudeau and Poilievre, Trudeau led only on who people thought would best host a party. On every other item, Poilievre was either well ahead or tied basically with the Prime Minister.
Today, the environment is different. With Mark Carney as leader (even if he isn’t as well known as Justin Trudeau), he leads or is competitive with Poilievre on many of the things we tested. Carney leads by 9 on “finding common ground to solve a dispute”, by 4 on “standing up to a bully” and by six on “sitting beside on a long flight”. Poilievre’s only advantage is on “putting up a shelf” but the plurarity of Canadians aren’t sure who would be better at that.
On some scenarios we think are more critical to this moment, the two are essentially tied. On “captaining a ship through a rough storm” Carney is ahead by a marginal two points. On “putting out a kitchen fire” Carney is ahead by 2. And on “helping you manage your household expenses”, Carney bests Poilievre by 3.
When we look at the critical group of those open to voting Liberal and Conservative – 16% of the electorate, the results are more instructive.
Carney leads by a wide margin on financial management (+17) and by a smaller margin on resolving a dispute (+6) and sitting beside on a long flight (+5).
Poilievre leads by 10 on putting up a shelf, by 7 on putting out a kitchen fire, and by 10 on standing up to a bully.
Again, on the important scenario of “captaining a ship through a rough storm”, Carney is ahead by a single point with 1 in 3 of these voters unsure who would be best.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Donald Trump’s enduring influence on Canadian politics looms even larger in this latest survey, amplifying a landscape that is growing increasingly competitive. While the Conservatives still hold a narrow lead at 38% to the Liberals’ 34%, the winds have shifted decisively in the Liberals’ favour. Voters seem receptive to Mark Carney’s leadership, and the party is quickly rebuilding its 2021 coalition—a trend underscored by sizable gains across age groups, among women, and in key regions like Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain formidable, but Trump’s shadow presents a real challenge. Nearly one in four Conservative supporters views the U.S. President positively—a stark contrast to the more uniformly negative sentiment among Liberals and New Democrats. As Trump draws more attention, particularly among Canadians who list him as a top issue, the Liberals have found their own advantage growing: a 14-point edge over the Conservatives on handling the “Trump factor” highlights how effectively Carney can position his party as a bulwark against the threat that Trump poses.
Meanwhile, perceptions of both leaders are evolving. Carney’s net favourability remains in positive territory (+7) at a moment (although his negatives are rising faster than his positives) when Poilievre’s is trending downward (-7). This points to a polarized electorate where negative partisanship could become a factor. Among those open to both parties, Carney’s edge on kitchen-table issues—like managing finances and resolving disputes—could tilt swing voters in his favour if these concerns continue to dominate the campaign narrative.
But there’s still a clear split on who Canadians think is best able to “captain a ship through a rough storm” a metaphor to the situation Canada finds itself in today.
All of this points to a newly fluid and highly competitive environment. The Liberals, buoyed by Carney’s arrival and a growing anti-Trump sentiment, are solidifying support faster than many might have anticipated even a few months ago. The Conservatives, for their part, still boast a large pool of persuadable voters, but their brand risks being defined by the polarizing figure of Trump. The election, whenever it comes, may ultimately hinge on whether the national conversation remains focused on cost-of-living pressures—a Conservative strong suit—or tilts more a debate over Trump and his impact on Canada, where the Liberals hold a clear advantage. Either way, the result is an unpredictable and tightening race reminiscent of the 2019 and 2021 elections.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,700 Canadian adults from March 10 to 12, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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