Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 17 as 4 in 10 federal Conservative supporters say their vote is more about disliking PM Trudeau and the Liberals than liking Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.
August 21, 2024
From August 14 to 18, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,300 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers, along with questions about what motivates Canadians to support the Conservative Party and the NDP, as well as questions about strategic voting.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 17 over the Liberals
The gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals remains largely unchanged, as Conservatives lead Liberals by 17 points nationally.
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 25% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ continues to hold 30% in Quebec.
As in previous surveys, every party’s vote share remains consistent, with very minor changes, as the Conservatives are down 1 and the Liberals are up 2, all within the margin of error.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions. In our last survey, the Conservatives and the BQ were statistically tied in QC. The story is very much the same although we have the Liberals and BQ now statistically tied with the Conservatives three points back.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all groups, as vote intention remains relatively stable. Conservative support remains high at 42% among 30-to-44 (1 point down from our last survey) and 43% among 60-and-over (1 point up).
Conservative support among 18-to-29 remains unchanged, while support among those 45-to-59 is down 4 points, as support for the NDP shifts slightly from the last survey (3 points up).
For the last two waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 47% of men would vote Conservative compared with 38% of women. Liberal support is consistent between men and women while NDP support is 6-points higher among women than among men.
Desire for change has also increased slightly. 86% want change (up 3 points), with 55% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (up 2 points). Only 14% of Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
This desire for change is also reflected on impressions of Justin Trudeau which remain negative. After a summer of travels across the country, the overall image of the Prime Minister is the same as it was when the summer started. Today, 24% (down one point) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 59% (up 1 point) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -35.
In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre remain in the net favourable territory. 40% of Canadians have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre, while 35% have a negative impression, for a net score of +5.
In our last survey, 37% had a negative impression of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, the highest we have recorded. Today, impressions have improved slightly, although the shift remains within the margin of error, as 35% have a negative impression. Positive impressions hold at 33%, for a net score sore of -2.
Voting for the Conservative Party…and against Justin Trudeau
In this edition we also asked current Conservative Party supporters whether their motivation to vote Conservative was more about liking Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives or more about disliking Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals. Very much reflective of Justin Trudeau’s negative impressions, we find that 40% of Conservative supporters say their vote is more about disliking the Prime Minister and the Liberals than liking the Conservative.
More strikingly, of those who voted Liberal in the 2021 election and who would vote Conservative today, 50% say their support is more impacted by their dislike for Trudeau and the Liberals than their affinity for the Conservatives. We also see a that dislike of the Liberals or Mr. Trudeau can even override someone’s dislike or lack of affinity for Mr. Poilievre. 65% of those whose impression of Mr. Poilievre is neutral or negative and plan to vote Conservative say it is because they dislike the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau.
When asked in a follow-up question, how Conservative supporters would react if Prime Minister Trudeau stepped down as Liberal leader, 68% said they would still vote Conservative, “no matter what”. Another 19% say they would probably still vote Conservative but could change their mind. Only 9% would be willing to consider voting Liberal depending on who the new leader is, and none say they would likely vote Liberal if Trudeau stepped down as leader.
Even among those who are motivated to vote for the Conservative Party out of dislike for Trudeau and the Liberals, only 156 would consider voting Liberal if Trudeau stepped down and depending on who was elected leader. This suggests that Trudeau stepping away may not immediately solve the Liberal Party’s problems, but it may allow a new leader to try and persuade people.
For context, those current Conservatives who might consider voting Liberal depending on who a new Liberal leader might be represents 3% of the electorate. Another 7% say they could change their mind away from the Conservatives. That’s a sizeable portion of the electorate.
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
We also posed the same question to individuals who indicated they would vote for the NDP if the election were held today. In contrast to Conservative supporters, NDP supporters are more likely to be motivated by their positive view of Jagmeet Singh and/or the NDP itself, with 79% citing this as their main reason. Only 21% of current NDP supporters are motivated by a dislike of the Liberals.
In term of strategic voting, we asked NDP supporters what would happen if it looked like Mr. Poilievre, and the Conservatives were likely to win the election if the NDP and the Liberals split the vote. 41% said they would still vote for the NDP, while 21% might consider voting Liberal to defeat a Conservative candidate.
Strategic voting increases among those who hold very negative impressions of Poilievre (with 38%).
We also wanted to gauge the possibility of strategic voting. We asked current NDP, Green and BQ supporters the likelihood of them voting Liberal, if it became clear that the Liberal Party had the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election. We find that 8% of committed of the electorate or 32% of NDP, Green, and BQ voters say they would probably vote Liberal, while 3% of the committed electorate or 14% of NDP, Green, and BQ say they would definitely vote Liberal. If all 11% of these voters switched to the Liberals, the 17-point Conservative lead would shrink to 6-points.
And as we showed earlier, if Prime Minister Trudeau stepped aside, the combination of a new leader and strategic voting could make the election far closer than it appears now. But the odds of that remain quite low, based on our polling.
Interestingly when we asked the likelihood of current Liberal, Green and BQ supporters voting NDP, if it became clear that the NDP had the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election, we find that 11% of committed voters or 35% of Liberal, Green, and BQ supporters would probably vote NDP, while 6% of the committed electorate or 20% of Liberal, Green, and BQ supporters would definitely vote NDP. If the definitely and probably groups did switch to the NDP, the NDP vote share would rise from 18% to 35%, 7-points behind the Conservatives.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The overall aspects of political opinion in Canada remain very consistent and have remained so for the whole spring and summer. The Conservatives lead by a wide-margin, impressions of Pierre Poilievre remain substantially more positive than Justin Trudeau, and the desire for change is broad and fairly deep. These are the fundamentals of Canadian public opinion today.
But underneath these attributes, our polling this week does indicate the possibility for change if circumstances change.
If Justin Trudeau were to step aside, the Liberals would not instantly leap into contention. But enough current Conservative supporters say they might be persuaded to vote Liberal if that were to happen,
Moreover, the possibility of strategic voting remains. We know from previous polling that Canadians increasingly believe that Poilievre and the Conservatives will win the next election. But there is less clarity on which party (Liberal or NDP) has the better chance at defeating them. If that view crystalizes, we show that a sizeable portion of voters in the Liberal, NDP, Green, and BQ voter universe could coalesce around one option and if the Liberals change leaders, that could drive some current Conservatives into the new leaders arms.
Now this is all hypothetical and depends on several variables we can’t easily measure or gauge.
What is clear, and has been for over a year now, the most likely outcome after the next election is a change in government. The Conservative Party’s lead is truly national, and crosses all demographics. But that lead is built on 4 in 10 of its supporters being motivated more by rejecting the government than embracing the alternative. There is still space for that outcome to change, no matter how unlikely it might be.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,300 Canadian adults from August 14 to 18, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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